Areal Flood Warning 8, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
301 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

The diurnal increase in convection this afternoon has occurred in
generally the same area indicated by the convection allowing models
(cam models). Around 20 to 30 knots of effective bulk shear has
allowed a few clusters to organize enough for hail or wind for short
periods of time. Radar has indicated a couple 60 dbz cores briefly
around thresholds for one-inch hail, which is about 25k feet. There
may be a few storms pulsing up to near severe levels through the
early evening hours, however the heavy rain has been a bigger issue
in parts of southern Illinois. The cam models indicate a general
slow eastward progression of the convection across the lower Ohio
Valley through early this evening. Nocturnal stabilization should
result in a decrease in activity by midnight. Overnight lows will
again be in the lower 70s, with very humid 70 degree dew points.

On Saturday, the axis of the 500 mb trough will push farther east.
The afternoon hours should be relatively quiet compared to this
afternoon, since the trough axis will be to our east. However, the
remnants of a diffuse frontal boundary will be stalled across the
lower Ohio Valley. This boundary will be enough to initiate some
convection with daytime heating, mainly south of the boundary in
western Kentucky. High temps will be somewhat limited by the clouds
and even some weak northwest flow behind the front. Highs should be
mainly in the mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

For the beginning of the extended period, the surface front will
briefly stall out across the southeast quarter of the WFO PAH
forecast area, impacting parts of the southeast Missouri Delta
region and the southern half of west Kentucky, moving through by
daybreak on Sunday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will slowly work southeast with
the passage of the front, clearing out of the WFO PAH forecast
area by sunset Sunday.

Although some of the deterministic guidance from the NAM-WRF,
Canadian, and European numerical models paint spurious QPF across
the forecast area through Sunday night, but given the mean trough
axis and lift will be just south of the area, kept closer to the
NBM model solution, which finally dropped precipitation across the
area Sunday night and Monday. In fact, the NBM guidance has
finally resolved to drop measurable PoPs across the area with
northwest flow aloft and the focus of the main moisture
convergence zone being suppressed south of the WFO PAH forecast
period through the upcoming work week.

Diurnal ranges will average between 20-23 degrees next week with
max temperatures in the 80s through Tuesday, transitioning into
the 90s on Wednesday, and remaining in the low 90s for the latter
part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and
intensity this afternoon. The activity initially forming over sw
Illinois and se Missouri at midday will move slowly east across the
lower Ohio Valley through early this evening. The tafs will contain
thunder, but amendments will be needed if radar indicates storms
will produce ifr conditions or gusty winds.

The storms will diminish with loss of daytime heating and
instability later this evening. Mainly vfr conditions are expected
much of the night.

A weak frontal boundary will stall over the region early Saturday
morning. The combination of light winds and plentiful low level
moisture will result in ifr cigs in stratus in some areas.
Conditions will improve to mvfr as daytime heating erodes cloud
bases later Sat morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...MY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
415 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-171000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
415 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible, especially
this afternoon into early evening. A few isolated severe storms
with gusty winds cannot be ruled out. However, the more common
thunderstorm hazards will come with lightning and locally heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered thunderstorms over the weekend will become much less
numerous next week. Lightning and locally heavy rainfall are
expected to be the primary thunderstorm hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
326 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     FLOOD            2 S MOUNT VERNON        38.29N 88.90W
07/16/2021                   JEFFERSON          IL   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM FACEBOOK OF SEVERAL STREETS WITH
            STANDING WATER ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF MOUNT
            VERNON.

&&

DWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
412 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N SAINT JOHNS         38.08N 89.24W
07/16/2021                   PERRY              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTING SEVERAL PARTS
            OF US 51 NORTH OF DU QUOIN ARE FLOODED WITH
            1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER, AND THERE ARE CARS
            STALLED IN THE WATER.

&&

DWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
413 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MOUNT CARMEL            38.42N 87.77W
07/16/2021                   WABASH             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLASH FLOODING WITH WATER OVER ALOT OF
            ROADWAYS IN AND AROUND MOUNT CARMEL. 1.38
            INCHES OF RAINFALL MEASURED.

&&

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