Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
323 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

Latest surface analysis show a cold front extending from near
Interstate 64 in southwest Indiana to just south of Marion
Illinois to near poplar Bluff Missouri. A line of strong to severe
storms extended from Ellsinore Missouri to Paducah to Greenville
Kentucky moving north. This line of convection will continue north
over the next few hours with isolated cells possible both north
and south of the activity. Another line moving east-northeast out
of Arkansas will trek across southern portions of west kentucky
through daybreak.

Timing of the frontal passage today remains in question due to
drastic model differences. It looks like the front will remain
draped across our region much of the day, and daytime heating will
help convection continue to develop or redevelop, especially by
late morning and this afternoon. The front should finally push
southeast of our region this evening, allowing showers and storms
to taper off from west to east this evening into the early
morning hours of Wednesday.

By late tonight, high pressure from the Central Plains will move
over the middle Mississippi valley.  This will bring dry conditions
back to our region, and keep winds out of the north into Wednesday
night. Cooler air will continue to filter in, keeping our high
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal, and lows 4 to 7 degrees
below normal.

On Thursday, models have been fairly consistent in bringing a weak
surface trof across our region. This will produce isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms to the PAH forecast area
Thursday afternoon, with the better chances across our northern
counties.  High pressure will quickly follow, so our area will be
dry Thursday night through Friday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

An active pattern is expected for the weekend.  Models show a
surface low over the Central Plains bringing a warm front north into
the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys late Friday night into
Saturday.  Models show the front lifting north and setting up shop
just north of the PAH forecast area by late Saturday into Saturday
night.  Impulses moving along the front will keep showers and
thunderstorms in our forecast through the weekend. Small chances
of showers will move move into our western and northern counties
late Friday night, with showers and some storms spreading across
the rest of the PAH forecast area Saturday as impulses ride along
the front. Due to the expected location of the front, our highest
chances will be across southern Illinois and southwest Indiana.

By Saturday night into Sunday, the surface low to our west will
push eastward, dragging a cold front toward our region. Models
differ in how fast the cold front will move through our region
late Sunday into Sunday night, but there is some agreement that
the front will hang up just south of the PAH fa. Generally,
showers and storms will remain in our forecast through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

Thunderstorms increased considerably across western Kentucky
during the midnight hour and expect scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to continue in the vicinity of KOWB and KPAH
through the late night. In the meantime expect large area of
thunderstorms over AR and South Central/South West MO to continue
progressing NE toward KCGI, KPAH and eventually the remaining TAF
sites overnight. It still appears the heaviest TSRA activity will
be at KCGI and KPAH. Thunder chances will end from west to east
around 12-15z, though kept vicinity showers going through most if
not all the remainder of the forecast period.

Cigs will lower to MVFR under rain shower activity. After the
steady rain ends, cigs will remain in the low MVFR range or
deteriorate further to IFR levels depending on location. Vsbys
will be VFR, except under heavy thunderstorm activity, when brief
drops to IFR are possible. Winds will be SW at 5-10 kts outside of
thunderstorms overnight, becoming W-NW Tuesday afternoon behind a
passing cold front.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...RS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
936 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-050245-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
936 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorm chances will be increasing through the late night
and early morning hours. Severe storms with large hail and
damaging winds will be possible over most of the region. The
greatest concern is for more widespread damaging wind after
midnight mainly over southeast Missouri and west Kentucky. Some
flooding problems may develop, especially in areas that receive
multiple rounds of thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A good chance of thunderstorms continues Tuesday through Tuesday
evening. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out mainly
over west Kentucky and southwest Indiana in the afternoon. Locally
heavy rainfall could lead to a few flooding problems, especially
in areas that receive heavy rainfall tonight.

A few thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and again
Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Severe storms are not expected
at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed by around midnight over
the Ozark Foot Hills of southeast Missouri, and elsewhere across
southeast Missouri and far western Kentucky and far southern
Illinois late tonight.

Shanklin

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
406 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SE DUDLEY             36.75N 90.05W
05/04/2021                   STODDARD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EOC REPORTS WATER OVER ROADWAY AT COUNTY
            ROAD 659/ZZ.

0330 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SW ACORN RIDGE        36.87N 90.12W
05/04/2021                   STODDARD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EOC REPORTS SWIFTWATER ALONG WW, SOUTH OF
            COUNTY ROAD 420.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
430 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HAZEL                   36.50N 88.33W
05/04/2021                   CALLOWAY           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 641.

&&

RST

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