Alert archive / Kentucky / River Flood Warnings in 2021

River Flood Warning 46, NWS Paducah, KY

May 4, 2021Muhlenberg County, Kentucky

NWS Paducah, KY issued this river flood warning at May 4, 2021, 10:01 AM CDT for Muhlenberg County, Kentucky. It took effect at May 5, 2021, 1:43 AM CDT. It was in force for 6 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 4, 2021, 10:01 AM CDT (15:01 UTC)
In effect from: May 5, 2021, 1:43 AM CDT
Expired: May 10, 2021, 6:27 PM CDT
In force: 6 days
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

County Muhlenberg County, KY

The radar

The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Green River (KY) at Paradise (PRDK2). The gauge peaked at 24.18 ft at May 8, 2021, 12:00 AM CDT.

Action stage: 378 ft
Minor stage: 380 ft
Moderate stage: 386 ft
Major stage: 400 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 03316500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

039 
WGUS43 KPAH 041501
FLWPAH

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1001 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

...The National Weather Service in Paducah KY has issued a Flood 
Warning for the following rivers in Kentucky...

  Green River at Paradise affecting Muhlenberg County.

.Heavy rainfall from storms overnight will send the Green River 
rising. Paradise should rise above flood stage late tonight and 
crest on Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&


KYC177-051715-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FL.W.0046.210505T0949Z-000000T0000Z/
/PRDK2.1.ER.210505T0949Z.210507T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1001 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  the Green River at Paradise.
* From late tonight until further notice.
* At 9:15 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 371.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 380.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  tonight and continue rising to a crest of 384.7 feet Thursday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 380.0 feet, Water rises over the skimmer wall at the 
  TVA fossil plant.
  &&

LAT...LON 3746 8716 3742 8703 3726 8689 3720 8697
      3729 8707 3731 8719

$$

ML

12 follow-up statements

347 
WGUS83 KPAH 050147
FLSPAH

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
847 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...

  Green River at Paradise affecting Muhlenberg County.

.Heavy rainfall from recent storms will send the Green River rising. 
Paradise should rise above flood stage early Wednesday morning and 
crest on Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&


KYC177-060400-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0046.210505T0643Z-000000T0000Z/
/PRDK2.1.ER.210505T0643Z.210507T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
847 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until further notice...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Green River at Paradise.
* From late tonight until further notice.
* At 8:15 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 377.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 380.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage just 
  after midnight tonight and continue rising to a crest of 385.9 
  feet early Friday morning.
* Impact...At 380.0 feet, Water rises over the skimmer wall at the 
  TVA fossil plant.
  &&

LAT...LON 3746 8716 3742 8703 3726 8689 3720 8697
      3729 8707 3731 8719

$$

16

171 
WGUS83 KPAH 051357
FLSPAH

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
857 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...

  Green River at Paradise

.Recent heavy rainfall is causing the Green River to rise at 
Paradise. The river has risen into minor flood, and will continue 
rising, but stay in minor flood, with a forecast crest at 385.9 feet 
early Friday morning.

For the Green River...including Paradise...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

&&


KYC177-061600-
/O.CON.KPAH.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PRDK2.1.ER.210505T0721Z.210507T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
857 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Green River at Paradise.
* Until further notice.
* At 8:15 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 382.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 380.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 385.9 feet 
  early Friday morning.
  &&

LAT...LON 3746 8716 3742 8703 3726 8689 3720 8697
      3729 8707 3731 8719

$$

07

974 
WGUS43 KPAH 061122
FLWPAH

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Paducah KY
622 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity and 
increased in duration for the following river in Kentucky...

  Green River at Paradise affecting Muhlenberg County.

.Recent heavy rainfall is causing the Green River to rise at 
Paradise. Minor flooding is occurring, but the river is now expected 
to rise just above moderate flood levels by this afternoon, cresting 
early this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&


KYC177-071330-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-210509T2011Z/
/PRDK2.2.ER.210505T0721Z.210507T0000Z.210509T1410Z.NO/
622 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity and 
increased in duration until Sunday afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Green River at Paradise.
* Until Sunday afternoon.
* At 5:15 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 385.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 380.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 386.2 feet 
  this evening. It will then fall below flood stage late Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 380.0 feet, Water rises over the skimmer wall at the 
  TVA fossil plant.
  &&

LAT...LON 3746 8716 3742 8703 3726 8689 3720 8697
      3729 8707 3731 8719

$$

SMITH

751 
WGUS83 KPAH 061411
FLSPAH

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
911 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...

  Green River at Paradise

.Recent heavy rainfall is causing the Green River to rise at 
Paradise. Moderate flooding is now occurring, and the river is 
expected to continue to rise to a crest of 386.5 feet early this 
evening.

For the Green River...including Paradise...Moderate flooding is 
occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

&&


KYC177-071615-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-210509T1251Z/
/PRDK2.2.ER.210505T0721Z.210507T0000Z.210509T0651Z.NO/
911 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Sunday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Green River at Paradise.
* Until Sunday morning.
* At 8:15 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 386.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 380.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 386.5 feet 
  this evening. It will then fall below flood stage early Sunday 
  morning.
  &&

LAT...LON 3746 8716 3742 8703 3726 8689 3720 8697
      3729 8707 3731 8719

$$

07

196 
WGUS83 KPAH 070134
FLSPAH

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
834 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...

  Green River at Paradise affecting Muhlenberg County.

.Recent heavy rainfall is causing the Green River to flood at 
Paradise.

For the Green River...including Paradise, Calhoun...Moderate 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&


KYC177-080345-
/O.CON.KPAH.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-210509T1251Z/
/PRDK2.2.ER.210505T0721Z.210508T0000Z.210510T0207Z.NO/
834 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Green River at Paradise.
* Until Sunday morning.
* At 8:15 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 386.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 380.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 387.5 feet 
  tomorrow evening. It will then fall below flood stage late Sunday 
  evening.
  &&

LAT...LON 3746 8716 3742 8703 3726 8689 3720 8697
      3729 8707 3731 8719

$$

08

820 
WGUS83 KPAH 071504
FLSPAH

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1004 AM CDT Fri May 7 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...

  Green River at Paradise

.Recent heavy rainfall has caused the Green River to flood at 
Paradise.

For the Green River...including Paradise...Moderate flooding is 
occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

&&


KYC177-081715-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-210510T0502Z/
/PRDK2.2.ER.210505T0721Z.210507T1800Z.210509T2302Z.NO/
1004 AM CDT Fri May 7 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Monday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Green River at Paradise.
* Until late Sunday night.
* At 9:15 AM CDT Friday the stage was 387.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 380.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 387.3 feet 
  this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage Sunday evening.
  &&

LAT...LON 3746 8716 3742 8703 3726 8689 3720 8697
      3729 8707 3731 8719

$$

07

371 
WGUS83 KPAH 080427
FLSPAH

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1127 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...

  Green River at Calhoun and Paradise.

.Recent heavy rainfall will cause the Green River to rise above 
flood stage at Calhoun tonight, while the river at Paradise crests 
in moderate flood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued late Saturday night at 130 AM CDT.

&&


KYC149-233-090630-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-210509T1200Z/
/CALK2.1.ER.210508T0600Z.210508T1800Z.210509T0600Z.NO/
1127 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Sunday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Green River at Calhoun.
* Until Sunday morning.
* At 11:00 PM CDT Friday the stage was 22.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage tonight 
  to a crest of 23.2 feet early tomorrow afternoon. It will then 
  fall below flood stage early Sunday morning.
  &&

LAT...LON 3775 8742 3772 8730 3763 8739 3751 8703
      3743 8707 3761 8757

$$

KYC177-090630-
/O.CON.KPAH.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-210510T0502Z/
/PRDK2.2.ER.210505T0721Z.210508T0315Z.210509T2302Z.NO/
1127 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Green River at Paradise.
* Until late Sunday night.
* At 10:15 PM CDT Friday the stage was 387.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 380.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage Sunday 
  evening and continue falling to 373.5 feet Wednesday evening.
  &&

LAT...LON 3746 8716 3742 8703 3726 8689 3720 8697
      3729 8707 3731 8719

$$

RJP

752 
WGUS83 KPAH 081609
FLSPAH

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1109 AM CDT Sat May 8 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...

  Green River at Calhoun affecting Webster and McLean Counties.

  Green River at Paradise affecting Muhlenberg County.

.River levels are cresting today and tonight along the Green River 
and will fall below flood stage over the next couple of days.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&


KYC149-233-091815-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-210510T0600Z/
/CALK2.1.ER.210508T0825Z.210509T0000Z.210510T0000Z.NO/
1109 AM CDT Sat May 8 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Monday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Green River at Calhoun.
* Until late Sunday night.
* At 10:00 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 23.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 23.3 feet 
  this evening. It will then fall below flood stage tomorrow evening.
  &&

LAT...LON 3775 8742 3772 8730 3763 8739 3751 8703
      3743 8707 3761 8757

$$

KYC177-091815-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-210511T0100Z/
/PRDK2.2.ER.210505T0721Z.210508T0745Z.210510T1900Z.NO/
1109 AM CDT Sat May 8 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Monday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Green River at Paradise.
* Until Monday evening.
* At 10:15 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 387.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 380.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to hold nearly steady at 387.3 
  feet through this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage 
  early Monday afternoon.
  &&

LAT...LON 3746 8716 3742 8703 3726 8689 3720 8697
      3729 8707 3731 8719

$$

PS

985 
WGUS83 KPAH 091502
FLSPAH

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1002 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...

  Green River at Calhoun and Paradise.

.River levels have crested along the Green River and will fall below 
flood stage over the next couple of days.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&


KYC149-233-101300-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-210510T1251Z/
/CALK2.1.ER.210508T0825Z.210509T0400Z.210510T0651Z.NO/
1002 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Green River at Calhoun.
* Until Monday morning.
* At 9:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 23.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage just 
  after midnight tonight and continue falling to 16.0 feet Friday 
  morning.
  &&

LAT...LON 3775 8742 3772 8730 3763 8739 3751 8703
      3743 8707 3761 8757

$$

KYC177-101715-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-210511T0936Z/
/PRDK2.1.ER.210505T0721Z.210508T0745Z.210511T0336Z.NO/
1002 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Tuesday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Green River at Paradise.
* Until late Monday night.
* At 8:15 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 385.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 380.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late 
  tomorrow evening and continue falling to 372.2 feet Friday morning.
  &&

LAT...LON 3746 8716 3742 8703 3726 8689 3720 8697
      3729 8707 3731 8719

$$

York

826 
WGUS83 KPAH 100328
FLSPAH

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1028 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...

  Green River at Paradise.

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...

  Green River at Calhoun.

.The Green River has crested and continues to fall. It fell below 
flood stage at Calhoun this evening and is forecast to fall below 
flood stage at Paradise late Monday evening.

KYC149-233-100430-
/O.CAN.KPAH.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-210510T0328Z/
/CALK2.1.ER.700119T1807Z.700119T1808Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1028 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Green River at Calhoun has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Green River at Calhoun.
* At 10:00 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 22.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 16.0 feet Friday 
  morning.
  &&

LAT...LON 3775 8742 3772 8730 3763 8739 3751 8703
      3743 8707 3761 8757

$$

KYC177-110530-
/O.CON.KPAH.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-210511T0936Z/
/PRDK2.1.ER.210505T0721Z.210508T0745Z.210511T0336Z.NO/
1028 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Green River at Paradise.
* Until late Monday night.
* At 9:15 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 383.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 380.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late 
  Monday evening and continue falling to 372.2 feet Friday morning.
  &&

LAT...LON 3746 8716 3742 8703 3726 8689 3720 8697
      3729 8707 3731 8719

$$

RJP

177 
WGUS83 KPAH 101617
FLSPAH

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1117 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...

  Green River at Paradise affecting Muhlenberg County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&


KYC177-110245-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-210511T0240Z/
/PRDK2.1.ER.210505T0721Z.210508T0745Z.210510T2040Z.NO/
1117 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late this evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Green River at Paradise.
* Until this evening.
* At 10:15 AM CDT Monday the stage was 380.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 380.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late 
  this afternoon and continue falling to 375.2 feet Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 380.0 feet, Water rises over the skimmer wall at the 
  TVA fossil plant.
  &&

LAT...LON 3746 8716 3742 8703 3726 8689 3720 8697
      3729 8707 3731 8719

$$

PS

046 
WGUS83 KPAH 102327
FLSPAH

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
Issued by National Weather Service Louisville KY
627 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...

  Green River at Paradise affecting Muhlenberg County.

KYC177-110030-
/O.CAN.KPAH.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-210510T2327Z/
/PRDK2.1.ER.210505T0721Z.210508T0745Z.210510T2040Z.NO/
627 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Green River at Paradise has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Green River at Paradise.
* At 5:15 PM CDT Monday the stage was 378.8 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 380.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to continue falling to 375.2 feet 
  Saturday morning.


&&

LAT...LON 3746 8716 3742 8703 3726 8689 3720 8697
      3729 8707 3731 8719

$$

LMK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 4, 6:29 AM CDT, 3 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 4, 6:29 AM CDT, 3 hours 32 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
629 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

Latest surface analysis show a cold front extending from near
Interstate 64 in southwest Indiana to just south of Marion
Illinois to near poplar Bluff Missouri. A line of strong to severe
storms extended from Ellsinore Missouri to Paducah to Greenville
Kentucky moving north. This line of convection will continue north
over the next few hours with isolated cells possible both north
and south of the activity. Another line moving east-northeast out
of Arkansas will trek across southern portions of west kentucky
through daybreak.

Timing of the frontal passage today remains in question due to
drastic model differences. It looks like the front will remain
draped across our region much of the day, and daytime heating will
help convection continue to develop or redevelop, especially by
late morning and this afternoon. The front should finally push
southeast of our region this evening, allowing showers and storms
to taper off from west to east this evening into the early
morning hours of Wednesday.

By late tonight, high pressure from the Central Plains will move
over the middle Mississippi valley.  This will bring dry conditions
back to our region, and keep winds out of the north into Wednesday
night. Cooler air will continue to filter in, keeping our high
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal, and lows 4 to 7 degrees
below normal.

On Thursday, models have been fairly consistent in bringing a weak
surface trof across our region. This will produce isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms to the PAH forecast area
Thursday afternoon, with the better chances across our northern
counties.  High pressure will quickly follow, so our area will be
dry Thursday night through Friday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

An active pattern is expected for the weekend.  Models show a
surface low over the Central Plains bringing a warm front north into
the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys late Friday night into
Saturday.  Models show the front lifting north and setting up shop
just north of the PAH forecast area by late Saturday into Saturday
night.  Impulses moving along the front will keep showers and
thunderstorms in our forecast through the weekend. Small chances
of showers will move move into our western and northern counties
late Friday night, with showers and some storms spreading across
the rest of the PAH forecast area Saturday as impulses ride along
the front. Due to the expected location of the front, our highest
chances will be across southern Illinois and southwest Indiana.

By Saturday night into Sunday, the surface low to our west will
push eastward, dragging a cold front toward our region. Models
differ in how fast the cold front will move through our region
late Sunday into Sunday night, but there is some agreement that
the front will hang up just south of the PAH fa. Generally,
showers and storms will remain in our forecast through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

Thunder chances will end from west to east around 12-15z, though
kept vicinity showers going through most if not all the remainder
of the forecast period. Cigs will lower to MVFR under rain
shower activity. After the steady rain ends, cigs will remain in
the low MVFR range or deteriorate further to IFR levels depending
on location. Vsbys will generally be VFR. Winds will be SW at 5-10
kts outside of thunderstorms this AM, becoming W-NW this
afternoon behind a passing cold front.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...GM

Hazardous weather outlook, May 4, 7:20 AM CDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
720 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-051230-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
720 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today into this
evening. A few strong to severe storms are not out of the
question, especially in west Kentucky.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few thunderstorms are possible across the region Thursday
afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night, then again Monday afternoon.
Severe storms are not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation can not be ruled out today, mainly along and
south of the Ohio River.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 4, 6:13 AM CDT, 3 hours 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
613 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE HOPKINSVILLE      36.87N 87.47W
05/04/2021                   CHRISTIAN          KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ACROSS BOTH LANES OF TRAFFIC ON
            EAST 7TH STREET AT THE 1700 BLOCK.

&&

RST

Local storm report, May 4, 6:25 AM CDT, 3 hours 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
625 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GRAHAM                  37.25N 87.28W
05/04/2021                   MUHLENBERG         KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED, INCLUDING A FEW MAIN ROADS. A
            COUPLE OF MOBILE HOMES EVACUATING DUE TO FLOODING.
            RAINFALL MEASUREMENT OF 5.01 INCHES SIX MILES SOUTHWEST
            OF GREENVILLE.

&&

MY

Local storm report, May 4, 6:30 AM CDT, 3 hours 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W LYNNVILLE           36.56N 88.61W
05/04/2021                   GRAVES             KY   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: TREES DOWN.

&&

MY

Local storm report, May 4, 6:33 AM CDT, 3 hours 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
633 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     HAIL             1 SW CRUTCHFIELD        36.57N 88.95W
05/04/2021  M0.75 INCH       FULTON             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0205 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DONIPHAN                36.62N 90.82W
05/04/2021                   RIPLEY             MO   PUBLIC

            MEDIA RELAYED REPORT OF A LARGE TREE ON A
            HOME IN DONIPHAN.

0210 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DONIPHAN                36.62N 90.82W
05/04/2021                   RIPLEY             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PLENTY OF TREE DAMAGE, POWER OUTAGES.
            HIGHEST MEASURED GUST 55 MPH.

0243 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW GIDEON             36.44N 89.92W
05/04/2021                   NEW MADRID         MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BEDROOM WINDOW BLOWN OUT, POWER POLE DOWN,
            TREES DOWN.

0255 AM     HAIL             4 NW CROFTON            37.10N 87.54W
05/04/2021  M0.75 INCH       CHRISTIAN          KY   PUBLIC

0300 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNW DONIPHAN          36.64N 90.83W
05/04/2021                   RIPLEY             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS IN THE COUNTY FLOODING. REPORT
            DELAYED DUE TO POWER OUTAGES IN AREA.

0305 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW PUXICO            36.96N 90.16W
05/04/2021                   STODDARD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EOC REPORTED TREES DOWN ON ROADS IN PUXICO.

0307 AM     HAIL             CROFTON                 37.05N 87.49W
05/04/2021  M0.75 INCH       CHRISTIAN          KY   PUBLIC

0330 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SW ACORN RIDGE        36.87N 90.12W
05/04/2021                   STODDARD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EOC REPORTS SWIFTWATER ALONG WW, SOUTH OF
            COUNTY ROAD 420.

0330 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SE DUDLEY             36.75N 90.05W
05/04/2021                   STODDARD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EOC REPORTS WATER OVER ROADWAY AT COUNTY
            ROAD 659/ZZ.

0336 AM     TSTM WND DMG     OAKTON                  36.67N 89.07W
05/04/2021                   HICKMAN            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIND DAMAGE TO A BUILDING IN OAKTON.

0338 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CLINTON                 36.67N 88.99W
05/04/2021                   HICKMAN            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            3 BUILDINGS WITH WIND DAMAGE. POWER OUT.
            LARGE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

0403 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W LYNNVILLE           36.56N 88.61W
05/04/2021                   GRAVES             KY   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: TREES DOWN.

0412 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W HAZEL               36.51N 88.36W
05/04/2021                   CALLOWAY           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN FROM 2 MILES WEST OF
            HAZEL TO HAZEL. 2 HOUSES WITH TREES ON THEM.

0413 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HAZEL                   36.50N 88.33W
05/04/2021                   CALLOWAY           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 641.

0430 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GREENVILLE              37.21N 87.18W
05/04/2021                   MUHLENBERG         KY   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED IN GREENVILLE.

0508 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S HOPKINSVILLE        36.82N 87.48W
05/04/2021                   CHRISTIAN          KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE, POWER POLE, AND TRAFFIC LIGHTS DOWN ON
            FORT CAMPBELL BOULEVARD AT THE BYPASS.

0508 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE HOPKINSVILLE      36.87N 87.47W
05/04/2021                   CHRISTIAN          KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ACROSS BOTH LANES OF TRAFFIC ON
            EAST 7TH STREET AT THE 1700 BLOCK.

0615 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GRAHAM                  37.25N 87.28W
05/04/2021                   MUHLENBERG         KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED, INCLUDING A FEW MAIN
            ROADS. A COUPLE OF MOBILE HOMES EVACUATING
            DUE TO FLOODING. RAINFALL MEASUREMENT OF
            5.01 INCHES SIX MILES SOUTHWEST OF
            GREENVILLE.

&&

Local storm report, May 4, 8:39 AM CDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
839 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW FULTON             36.54N 88.92W
05/04/2021                   FULTON             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOUSE. ROOF AND WALL OFF
            HOUSE. TREE ON HOUSE. CAR MOVED 40 FEET. POSSIBLE
            TORNADO.

&&

MY

Local storm report, May 4, 9:03 AM CDT, 58 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
903 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S OAKTON              36.64N 89.09W
05/04/2021                   HICKMAN            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POSSIBLE TORNADO. DAMAGE EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTHWEST OF
            OAKTON TO THE NORTH SIDE OF CLINTON. SEVERAL TREES ON
            HOUSES. DAMAGE TO TREES AND OUTBUILDINGS.

&&

MY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 3, 11:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Henderson	31 min
May 3, 11:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Lyon	34 min
May 3, 11:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Union	51 min
May 4, 12:02 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Daviess	43 min
May 4, 1:05 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Caldwell	25 min
May 4, 1:10 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Daviess	31 min
May 4, 1:23 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Hopkins	52 min
May 4, 2:00 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Christian, Muhlenberg	45 min
May 4, 2:02 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman	43 min
May 4, 2:41 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Ballard, Caldwell, Livingston, Lyon, McCracken	64 min
May 4, 2:50 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Fulton, Hickman	55 min
May 4, 2:51 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Christian, Muhlenberg	69 min
May 4, 3:05 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Christian, Muhlenberg	7 hr
May 4, 3:10 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PAH	Carlisle, Fulton, Hickman	3 hr
May 4, 3:22 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Crittenden, Livingston	53 min
May 4, 3:35 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman	40 min
May 4, 3:54 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Daviess, McLean	51 min
May 4, 3:59 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Calloway, Graves	31 min
May 4, 4:08 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Calloway, Christian, Lyon, Marshall, Trigg	52 min
May 4, 4:10 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PAH	McCracken	3 hr
May 4, 4:30 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Caldwell, Christian, Crittenden, Hopkins, Livingston, Lyon and 1 more	45 min
May 4, 4:45 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Caldwell, Hopkins, Lyon, Muhlenberg	5 hr
May 4, 5:06 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Christian, Hopkins, Muhlenberg, Todd	39 min
May 4, 5:14 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Christian, Muhlenberg, Todd	21 min
May 4, 9:40 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	PAH	Christian, Hopkins, Muhlenberg, Todd	110 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Kentucky, 2021 Every river flood warning in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.