Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
552 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

...New AVIATION, UPPER AIR...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

Shortwave over the central/southern Rockies is expected to lift NE
into the central Plains tonight. Meanwhile, showers and storms have
begun to develop in parts of SW OK down into TX. This activity is
expected to continue the rest of this afternoon and spread east and
northeast this evening/tonight as the shortwave lifts NE. Some
strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon/evening,
mainly in SW parts of the fa, with damaging wind gusts the primary
concern. The potential for severe storms is expected to decrease
after sunset.

During the day on Wednesday: The previously mentioned shortwave is
expected to be exiting the region which could lead to some
subsidence/no rain across parts of the fa tomorrow morning. However,
low rain chances will still continue across eastern portions of the
fa Wednesday morning. After some recovery tomorrow, rain chances
return to much of the rest of the fa Wednesday afternoon. Some
models are showing a band of moisture in the mid-levels developing
tomorrow afternoon, although disagreement on where. This moisture
along with heating and potentially a dryline/moisture gradient at
the sfc in parts of the fa could be enough for storms to develop
further west Wednesday afternoon. There is still some uncertainty to
Wednesday's forecast due to any boundaries and/or MCV from the
activity tonight which could be lingering in/near the area tomorrow
along with the uncertainty on how long any subsidence will last and
how quickly the atmosphere will recover from the subsidence behind
the shortwave.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into the weekend
as a couple of weak upper-level shortwave troughs move slowly
across the southern Plains, and a couple of weak surface fronts
arrive from the northwest. Overall, the general trend of
instability appears to be downward, suggesting that the risk of
strong thunderstorms will diminish each day, eventually getting to
where it will be difficult for thunderstorms to form.

As the last wave moves off to the northeast on Sunday, the rain
chances diminish further, then end.

It appears that the rainfall will, in general, help with fire
potential, while not likely resulting in significant flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

Scattered thunderstorms across southern Oklahoma and north Texas
are expected to diminish through about 03Z, except south of the
Red River. A few forecast models suggest morning storms roughly
from KPNC to OUN, though the probability appears to be very low.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible again tomorrow
afternoon, but confidence is very low regarding cap strength and
available instability. Current probabilities for afternoon
convection are around 20 to 30% for tomorrow at most of our TAF
sites.

CmS
&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 546 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

An Upper Air flight is planned for 29/00Z (today, local time).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  85  67  82 /  40  30  30  70
Hobart OK         63  90  66  87 /  30  30  10  60
Wichita Falls TX  66  89  67  87 /  50  30  20  70
Gage OK           61  88  61  78 /  10  20  30  60
Ponca City OK     66  87  66  82 /  20  40  50  70
Durant OK         67  85  67  83 /  30  60  20  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-291745-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1231 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms late
this afternoon and evening across far southwest Oklahoma and
western north Texas. The potential hazards are damaging wind gusts
up to 70 mph and quarter size hail. Thunderstorms are expected to
weaken as they move northeast late this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a chance for thunderstorms each day from Wednesday
through Sunday. Organized severe weather is not expected at this
time.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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