Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
212 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

Shortwave over the central/southern Rockies is expected to lift NE
into the central Plains tonight. Meanwhile, showers and storms have
begun to develop in parts of SW OK down into TX. This activity is
expected to continue the rest of this afternoon and spread east and
northeast this evening/tonight as the shortwave lifts NE. Some
strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon/evening,
mainly in SW parts of the fa, with damaging wind gusts the primary
concern. The potential for severe storms is expected to decrease
after sunset.

During the day on Wednesday: The previously mentioned shortwave is
expected to be exiting the region which could lead to some
subsidence/no rain across parts of the fa tomorrow morning. However,
low rain chances will still continue across eastern portions of the
fa Wednesday morning. After some recovery tomorrow, rain chances
return to much of the rest of the fa Wednesday afternoon. Some
models are showing a band of moisture in the mid-levels developing
tomorrow afternoon, although disagreement on where. This moisture
along with heating and potentially a dryline/moisture gradient at
the sfc in parts of the fa could be enough for storms to develop
further west Wednesday afternoon. There is still some uncertainty to
Wednesday's forecast due to any boundaries and/or MCV from the
activity tonight which could be lingering in/near the area tomorrow
along with the uncertainty on how long any subsidence will last and
how quickly the atmosphere will recover from the subsidence behind
the shortwave.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

Forecast confidence is low on Wednesday as convective
probabilities will depend on Tuesday (i.e., any subsidence behind
the wave and the location of any remnant boundaries/MCVs). Most
convective allowing models indicate limited convection for most of
the area with the highest probabilities to the east (perhaps
associated with a remnant boundary/MCV). These solutions seem
reasonable. This contrasts with the synoptic scale models and
their ensembles, which indicate higher probabilities. For now,
opted to trend probabilities lower than NBM given the uncertainty
and CAMs.

By Thursday, a cold front will move into the area from the
northwest. Another shortwave trough, ahead of a closed-low, will
approach from the west. The cold front combined with the trough
will result in widespread chance for rain Thursday into Friday.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler with highs in the 70s deg F
by Friday afternoon.

The closed-low is forecast to finally open up and lift into the
Plains on Saturday with a continued moderate to high probabilities
for rain. Probabilities should begin to decrease on Sunday as the
wave moves toward the Midwest with generally dry conditions
forecast by Monday.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

VFR/low VFR ceilings expected this TAF period. Some showers/storms
are expected to develop later this afternoon with chances
continuing into Wednesday morning across portions of the area.
However, chances are too low at some locations and/or at certain
times for mention in TAFs at this time. Gusty winds will be
possible near any storms late this afternoon and evening.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021

No upper air flights are planned at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  85  67  82 /  30  30  30  70
Hobart OK         63  90  66  87 /  30  30  10  60
Wichita Falls TX  66  89  67  87 /  50  30  20  70
Gage OK           61  88  61  78 /  10  20  30  60
Ponca City OK     66  87  66  82 /  20  40  50  70
Durant OK         67  85  67  83 /  30  60  20  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...25

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-291745-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1231 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms late
this afternoon and evening across far southwest Oklahoma and
western north Texas. The potential hazards are damaging wind gusts
up to 70 mph and quarter size hail. Thunderstorms are expected to
weaken as they move northeast late this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a chance for thunderstorms each day from Wednesday
through Sunday. Organized severe weather is not expected at this
time.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
221 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

TXZ088-089-281945-
Archer TX-Baylor TX-
221 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Archer
and southeastern Baylor Counties through 245 PM CDT...

At 221 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Megargel, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Megargel, Westover and Lake Kickapoo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 9908 3367 9888 3350 9863 3340 9877
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 219DEG 17KT 3341 9894

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CMS