Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
627 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

Weak upper trough will continue to move south across the area
this afternoon and tonight. There will be a chance to see
scattered convection mainly along and ahead of this trough axis.
Flow remains rather weak through a deep layer, so convection will
be slow-moving and will pose a heavy rainfall threat. Sufficient
instability will also be present for the potential for a few
strong to marginally severe storms to linger into the early
evening hours. The best chance for this will be across west. May
be enough to support a few shower/storms throughout the night.

This trough will continue to move slowly south during the day
Tuesday with best rain chances across the south/southeast.
Although can not count out an isolated storm just about anywhere,
especially by afternoon. Main impacts from any storm will be heavy
rainfall as again the activity will be slow-moving.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

A weakness in the mid/upper-level pattern will remain in place
across the Southern Plains through this week. Shortwave troughs
(some subtle) embedded within the weakness and juxtaposed with a
moist, weakly-capped atmosphere will continue to provide a daily
chance for convection. Residual mesoscale features (e.g., outflow
boundaries and MCVs) will also provide the focus for subsequent
convective development.

The most significant shortwave trough is progged to move through
on Thursday, which is currently the day that has the highest
probability for convection. Precipitable water values are also
progged to increase Thursday and Friday (~1.8 to 2.2"), so the
primary hazard with any thunderstorms will be heavy
rainfall/flooding. Intense cores may also result in
downbursts/gusty winds as storms collapse. Temperatures during the
period will remain slightly below seasonal averages.

By late in the weekend into early next week, the ~595 dam mid-
level ridge across the southeast U.S. will shift/expand to the
west. As this occurs, seasonably hot and dry weather is progged by
early next week. Even the 90th percentile NBM QPFs drop off
markedly by early next week, which indicates ensemble members are
in general agreement of a drier pattern.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

Isolated diurnal convection will decrease later this evening.
Until then TAF sites may be impacted. Latest radar shows
developing convection and recent lightning strikes near OKC and
SWO. A storm cannot totally be ruled out at OUN, PNC and SPS but
is low enough probability at this time to not mention. Additional
isolated convection is expected tomorrow afternoon toward the end
of the TAF period. Otherwise southeast winds will prevail with VFR
conditions likely.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

No upper air flights are currently scheduled.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  70  88  70 /  30  30  20  10
Hobart OK         91  70  92  69 /  40  40  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  91  71  92  71 /  30  30  40  20
Gage OK           89  65  91  67 /  70  20  20   0
Ponca City OK     88  68  88  69 /  30  30  20  10
Durant OK         90  71  91  71 /  30  20  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
823 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-180130-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
823 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated strong to marginally severe storms are possible through
late-evening. Strong wind gusts are the primary threat. Locally
heavy rainfall may occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
A daily chance for thunderstorms will continue through Sunday.
Heavy rain may accompany the storms, and some may produce gusty
winds and hail. However, organized severe weather is not
expected.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
737 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

OKZ025-028-029-170130-
Oklahoma OK-Cleveland OK-McClain OK-
737 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Oklahoma, northwestern Cleveland and northwestern McClain Counties
through 830 PM CDT...

At 737 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
southwestern Oklahoma City. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and hail up to the size of dimes.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Oklahoma City, western Norman, Moore, Newcastle and Will
Rogers Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3531 9767 3543 9762 3537 9741 3518 9753
      3525 9767
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 297DEG 3KT 3532 9760

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
803 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     HAIL             2 N NEWCASTLE           35.28N 97.60W
08/16/2021  E0.50 INCH       MCCLAIN            OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DIME SIZE HAIL AT NEWCASTLE CASINO.

&&

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
819 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW NEWCASTLE          35.29N 97.65W
08/16/2021  E60 MPH          MCCLAIN            OK   PUBLIC

&&

RB

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