Severe Thunderstorm Warning 457, NWS Norman, OK

900 
WWUS54 KOUN 171846
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
146 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

OKC011-015-017-171915-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0457.000000T0000Z-210817T1915Z/
Caddo OK-Blaine OK-Canadian OK-
146 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL CADDO...SOUTHEASTERN BLAINE AND NORTHWESTERN
CANADIAN COUNTIES...

At 145 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles southeast 
of Geary, moving northwest at 15 mph. Storm intensity has decreased 
and the warning may be cancelled before 2:15 pm.  

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Geary, Calumet, Bridgeport and Cedar Lake. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3553 9806 3541 9823 3560 9850 3578 9825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 139DEG 14KT 3558 9825 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

SIX

327 
WWUS54 KOUN 171858
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
158 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

OKC011-015-017-171907-
/O.CAN.KOUN.SV.W.0457.000000T0000Z-210817T1915Z/
Caddo OK-Blaine OK-Canadian OK-
158 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL CADDO...
SOUTHEASTERN BLAINE AND NORTHWESTERN CANADIAN COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
                 
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3553 9806 3541 9823 3560 9850 3578 9825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 139DEG 14KT 3562 9829 

$$

SIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 427 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms persist across
southern Oklahoma and north Texas this morning. A strong storm
near Hobart late last night produced an MCV that was drifting
northeast toward central Oklahoma. Although this MCV is not
apparent in radar or satellite loops at the moment due to the lack
of radar echoes and higher clouds streaming east that may
potentially be obscuring any remnant mid-level circulation, this
may still be lurking southwest of Oklahoma City. The convective-
allowing models hint at something that may help produce storm
development near or just east of central Oklahoma just after
sunrise. But even in the bigger picture, the axis of the broad
mid-level trough extends southeast from eastern Kansas into
western Oklahoma and west Texas this morning and will slowly shift
southeast with time, which will support shower/thunderstorm
development again today and tonight with the highest chances
across the south and eastern portions of the area. As we've seen
the past couple of days, slow-moving storms and efficient rainfall
production with storms will lead to some localized heavy rainfall,
and potentially localized flooding if storms persist over any
location very long. Again, the flooding potential is expected to be
rather localized and not very widespread. Model forecasts of
precipitable water values are higher this afternoon than have been
progged for the last couple of days, with values near or over 2
inches across southern Oklahoma and north Texas, pushing the upper
bounds of PW climatology for the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

Wednesday and Thursday will feature more or less the same basic
weather features as the earlier days of this week, with the main
convection drivers being outflow boundaries and minimal convective
inhibition during the day. A few weak circulations aloft, probably
including the occasional MCV from previous convection, will also
tend to support storm development, both during the day, and at
night.

An upper-level ridge will start to build into the southern Plains
from the Southeast this weekend and especially into early next
week. This will have the effect of gradually shutting off the
convective activity, and slowly raising the temperatures,
particularly daytime temperatures, as reduced cloud cover and
subsidence aloft both contribute a few degrees here and there.

That front that was previously forecast to bring less-humid and
slightly cooler weather this weekend and early next
week...is...well...apparently not going to make it.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact most sites this
afternoon into the early evening hours before convection
diminishes in areal coverage and shifts south and east of TAF
sites. Some mainly MVFR conditions will occur with the storms. VFR
conditions then expected through much of the night before
increasing chance for redevelopment of MVFR ceilings and perhaps
surface visibility at many locations. MVFR ceilings may then
continue through end of forecast. Winds will remain rather light
from the south/southeast.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

No upper air flights are currently scheduled.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  86  69  88  72 /  50  20  40  20
Hobart OK         89  68  89  71 /  30  20  30  30
Wichita Falls TX  89  70  89  73 /  70  50  60  30
Gage OK           89  66  90  69 /  10   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     87  68  90  70 /  30  20  20  10
Durant OK         87  71  88  72 /  70  60  80  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-181115-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1151 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will bring
a risk of locally heavy rainfall. This will mainly occur during
the afternoon and evening. Areas near and southeast of Interstate
44 will have the best chance of rain and higher rainfall totals.
Some of the stronger storms may also produce strong gusty winds
and perhaps small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Chances for thunderstorms will continue Wednesday, then diminish
slowly each day through Saturday. Strong storms and heavy rain
will continue to be possible each of these days, mainly across
southern and eastern Oklahoma.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

OKZ041-046-171800-
Carter OK-Murray OK-
1235 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Carter and
southwestern Murray Counties through 100 PM CDT...

At 1235 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lone Grove, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Torrential rainfall and very limited visiblity along
         with winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Ardmore, Lone Grove, Healdton, Wilson, Dickson, Springer, Graham,
Milo and northern Lake Murray.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 26 and 47.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3433 9754 3448 9719 3412 9697 3409 9697
      3407 9748
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 234DEG 18KT 3418 9728

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

30