Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
235 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

Flooding is expected to continue to be a concern for portions of the
area through Sunday as a persistent fetch of moisture combines with
a stalled frontal boundary to produce several rounds of heavy
rainfall. We have already seen areas of one to three inches of rain
across portions of western and northern OK overnight. Currently an
area of storms extends from just west of the OKC metro into the
TX panhandle, with lighter rainfall across portions of northern OK.
Heavy rainfall, minor flooding, and a few severe wind gusts are
possible with these storms as they continue eastward into central
OK, but they are expected to decrease in intensity through the
morning.

We will likely see a bit of a lull during the late morning to early
afternoon hours before storms redevelop along the residual
outflow/effective frontal boundary by mid afternoon. The exact
location of the boundary will be key to who sees the most
rainfall later today as the boundary is not likely to move a whole
lot this evening. The 00z HREF guidance is suggesting the
boundary ends up near/along the I-44 corridor from Lawton to the
OKC metro, likely reinforced by current ongoing convection. This
is where the HREF has its bullseye of greatest QPF, with mean QPF
values approaching the 3-5" range among the members over the next
24 hours. While the guidance is not likely to pinpoint the exact
location of the max rainfall, these totals seem plausible given
the nearly stalled boundary and a strong low-level jet continuing
to pump a 2"+ PWAT airmass into the boundary through this evening.
Enough instability is present for a risk of large hail and
damaging winds later this afternoon into this evening as well.
Overall though, we are most concerned with the flood threat this
afternoon and this evening and will continue to refine the area of
greatest threat through the day as the location of the front or
residual outflow becomes more apparent.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

By sunrise Sunday, the stalled front will be providing the focus for
persistent, probably flooding, rainfall. The diffuse frontal zone is
expected to be located nearly parallel to I-44 across Oklahoma and
into northern Texas. Its position will change little through Monday.
A flood watch remains in effect through Sunday afternoon and may
need to be extended into Monday. During this time, the persistent
upper-level long-wave trough will remain from northern New Mexico
into southern Ontario giving weak southwesterly flow aloft, quasi-
parallel to the surface front. Beyond Monday, the extremely humid
air mass will remain in place with little in the way of synoptic
boundaries near Oklahoma and very weak flow around an upper high
pressure in the southeastern U.S. This will keep shower/thunderstorm
chances in the forecast through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Periods of showers/thunderstorms will continue to impact most
sites overnight and through the day into the evening tomorrow.
However, most sites will remain VFR or just fall into MVFR
category. Winds will be from a southerly direction outside of
thunderstorms until a surface boundary moves from northwest toward
the I-44 corridor tomorrow.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

An Upper Air flight is not planned for today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  69  80  68 /  90 100  70  60
Hobart OK         88  67  81  66 /  90  80  50  50
Wichita Falls TX  94  70  85  69 /  20  70  60  60
Gage OK           82  64  84  63 /  60  30  20  30
Ponca City OK     85  68  82  67 /  90  90  50  40
Durant OK         93  73  90  71 /   0  30  50  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ004>030-033>038-044.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...30

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
142 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 S ELK CITY            35.34N 99.42W
06/26/2021  M59 MPH          BECKHAM            OK   MESONET

&&

PWARE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
143 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 S ELK CITY            35.34N 99.42W
06/26/2021  M61 MPH          BECKHAM            OK   MESONET

&&

PWARE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
154 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 W BURNS FLAT          35.36N 99.19W
06/26/2021  M77 MPH          WASHITA            OK   ASOS

            CLINTON-SHERMAN ASOS

&&

PWARE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
159 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 WNW BESSIE            35.41N 99.05W
06/26/2021  M62 MPH          WASHITA            OK   MESONET

&&

PWARE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
200 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 W BURNS FLAT          35.36N 99.19W
06/26/2021  M77 MPH          WASHITA            OK   ASOS

&&

PWARE

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