Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
618 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Storms are expected to develop from KS southwest into the TX
panhandle, clipping far NW parts of the fa, late this
afternoon/early evening. Showers/storms will then continue to
develop, move into, and across parts of the area tonight into
Saturday morning, with the highest chances generally north of I-40.
The development will occur near a front and dryline/sfc trough. The
cool front or effective front is forecast to slowly move south into
and across parts of the area tonight into tomorrow. Another round of
showers/storms is then expected to begin Saturday afternoon. The
position(s) of the previously mentioned boundaries will have an
impact on where the greatest storm development will begin tomorrow
afternoon. Enough instability and shear is expected to be in place
that some of the storms later this afternoon and evening could
become strong to severe with hail and damaging winds possible. Some
strong to severe storms will also be possible Saturday afternoon
with hail and strong winds the main concerns, although this could be
impacted by what occurs tonight into Saturday morning. The severe
potential being said, heavy rain/flooding will become an increasing
concern as the weekend progresses and could be an even bigger
concern than the severe potential for at least parts of the fa. A
Flood Watch is in effect starting early this evening and continues
into Saturday.

With the rain and clouds expected across the area, the trend of
below average temperatures for late June will begin Saturday with
highs in the 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

All medium range models project the blocking high across the western
one third of the U.S. persisting through next week, which should
maintain the negatively tilted trough across the central one third
of the U.S.  This persisting upper air pattern will maintain our wet
trend with cooler than seasonably average every day through Friday.
As the surface based and elevated instability and deep layer shear
weakens Saturday evening across the Southern High Plains, expecting
the severe hazards to gradually decrease with any ongoing convection
moving across our area.  However, could still see some strong storms
during the overnight hours, but heavy rainfall could maintain a
flooding to flash flooding hazard as well as river flooding
potential.  Within an area of 2-plus inches of Preciptable Water
Saturday night and three day storm total accumulations of 4-5
inches, the highest potential right now for flooding would be across
central and southwestern Oklahoma.  Of course this area and storm
total amounts may change in the upcoming short term.  With the upper
trough axis to our west, mid-level vorticity forcing within our
southwesterly flow aloft will maintain chances for storms through
the day Sunday, with the highest POPs generally south and east of
the I-44 corridor. Weak elevated instability should keep any of the
high based storms below severe. However, the stalled out surface
boundary will remain stretched somewhere across our area with
moderate surface based instability that could produce some lower
based stronger convective storms near the boundary, although weak
capping and/or a lack of strong afternoon heating could inhibit
this. Another vort max coming up from our southwest will bring
another round of showers and weak thunderstorms.

As previously mentioned, our wet trend with periods of rain and
storms will continue through next week as our upper troughing and
ample gulf moisture transport persists, with the highest chances
across the southern half of Oklahoma and western north Texas.
However, limited instability and lower QPFs should keep any new
severe and flooding risks low. However, any ongoing flooding
especially with rivers may persist.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

VFR conditions expected outside of storms, however storms will
become more numerous overnight and then again late Saturday with
some MVFR conditions. Moderate south to southeast winds will
remain through tonight into tomorrow before a surface boundary
works south toward I-44 late in the forecast period.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

An Upper Air flight is not planned for today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  88  68  79 /  60  70  90  70
Hobart OK         72  88  67  80 /  60  80  90  60
Wichita Falls TX  76  93  71  83 /  10  40  70  60
Gage OK           67  84  64  81 /  90  50  50  20
Ponca City OK     70  82  67  80 /  90  90  80  50
Durant OK         75  92  72  87 /  10  10  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ004>030-033>038-044.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-261645-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1145 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon in northwestern
Oklahoma and will gradually move east and south through the night. A
few storms are expected to produce damaging wind gusts and large
hail until 1 AM Saturday over the northwestern third of the state.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms are likely from Saturday through Tuesday with the area
moving slowly from north to south. Some severe wind gusts could
occur Saturday. There is a chance for thunderstorms from Wednesday.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Three to five inches of rainfall is possible in
some areas by the beginning of next week. A flood watch is in effect
from Friday evening until Sunday evening.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
538 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

OKZ005-252315-
Woods OK-
538 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR north central Woods County Until
615 PM CDT...

AT 537 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 12 miles northwest
of Avard, moving northeast at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central Woods
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Storm intensity is increasing and severe weather may develop rapidly.
Stay alert and listen for warnings.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9861 3676 9890 3686 9903 3700 9892
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 219DEG 22KT 3686 9889

Mahale

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
635 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

OKZ005-009>011-014-015-017-260015-
Major OK-Woodward OK-Roger Mills OK-Dewey OK-Woods OK-Blaine OK-
Ellis OK-
635 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR western Major...Woodward...
northeastern Roger Mills...Dewey...southeastern Woods...northwestern
Blaine and east central Ellis Counties Until 715 PM CDT...

AT 633 PM CDT, dissipating thunderstorms were along a line extending
from 4 miles northwest of Quinlan to near Putnam, moving east at 40
MPH. Gusty winds may occur as these thunderstorms dissipate.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Woodward, Taloga, Mooreland, Waynoka, Seiling, Vici, Canton, Leedey,
Longdale, Camargo, Sharon, Dacoma, Oakwood, Mutual, Putnam, Canton
Lake, Avard, Cestos, Quinlan and Orion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Severe weather is not expected and no warnings are anticipated at
this time.

&&

LAT...LON 3681 9854 3582 9852 3581 9941 3633 9962
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 249DEG 33KT 3649 9911 3589 9894

Mahale

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
651 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

OKZ009-014-260030-
Roger Mills OK-Ellis OK-
651 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Roger Mills and
western Ellis Counties Until 730 PM CDT...

AT 650 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
8 miles southeast of Follett to near Higgins to 7 miles southeast of
Canadian, moving east at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Shattuck, Arnett, Gage and Durham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3641 10000 3647 9977 3614 9970 3589 9973
      3582 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 250DEG 16KT 3633 10006 3608 10002 3582 10031

Mahale