Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
628 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Overnight)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

Storms are expected to develop quickly late this afternoon into this
evening along a cold front that will be located across portions of
southeast into south central Oklahoma. A favorable environment for
severe storms will exist ahead of the cold front across this area.
Initially as storms are expected to be more discrete, supercells
capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes will be possible
along with strong winds gusts.

This activity will become more linear, probably just as it exits our
southeast counties, winds will be an increasing threat.

Meanwhile, farther west as the main trough begins to shift east out
of the southern Rockies, additional storms will develop across west
Texas. These storms will be elevated as they form well north of the
surface cold front. However, sufficient instability will exist for
some large hail as these storms move into the western north Texas
counties. As we approach midnight, instability will be waining and
hail size is expected to decrease as storms move toward the I-35
corridor of southern Oklahoma. Other, weaker activity will also
impact much of western and northern Oklahoma overnight.

Otherwise, quite a bit colder air will filter south behind the cold
front. Temperatures are expected to fall into the 40s across
portions of northwest Oklahoma with gusty north winds, giving it a
bit of a bite. Lows in the 50s are expected elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

System that will bring showers/storms tonight will exit the area
Tuesday morning. Some showers may linger in parts of the fa tomorrow
morning but should end by mid-day. Sfc high will also settle into
the area tomorrow with below average temperatures expected. As the
sfc high moves off to the east, winds will shift back towards the
south Wednesday.

Models then show a shortwave approaching from the northwest and
moving across the Plains Wednesday night. Models show an area of
showers/storms moving across parts of the fa with this shortwave
although disagree on how much and path of the area of rain.

Upper ridging will briefly occur behind the previously mentioned
shortwave before flattening out the end of this week with a
shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains Friday night
bringing another chance for showers/storms to parts of the area.
Various shortwaves/disturbances moving through the flow will
continue over the weekend which will maintain the chances for
showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

MVFR cigs will return later tonight mainly after 06Z for most
terminals. Winds will remain northerly around 15 kt with some
stronger gusts before 09Z. A few showers and tsra are expected
mainly after 06Z near SPS, PNC, and SWO.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

A 19Z May 3 Upper Air flight was done today. A 0Z flight currently
is not planned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  63  44  70 /  40  40   0   0
Hobart OK         52  68  43  73 /  40  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  57  69  46  75 /  40  10   0   0
Gage OK           46  66  41  74 /  60  10   0  10
Ponca City OK     51  65  41  68 /  50  40   0  10
Durant OK         59  68  46  73 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...03

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
849 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-050200-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
849 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms this evening
until midnight across portions of southern and eastern Oklahoma.
Brief tornadoes will remain possible until 10 PM, along with hail
up to the size of baseballs and thunderstorm wind gusts up to 70
mph. There's a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions
of central Oklahoma and also western north Texas. Hail up to the
size of golf balls and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible
across these areas thru midnight.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
southern and eastern Oklahoma and north Texas should prepare for
severe weather operations after 5 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Overnight thunderstorms may linger into Tuesday morning across
north central, portions of central into eastern Oklahoma,
although severe weather is not expected.

Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night with no severe
weather expected. Thunderstorm chances return again Friday evening
and continue through Sunday, although storms are not expected to
be widespread.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1105 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE ATOKA RESERVOIR    34.53N 96.04W
05/03/2021                   ATOKA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM 3
            NE ATOKA RESERVOIR. DAMAGE TO MULTIPLE ROOFS
            (INCLUDING ONE ROOF REMOVED) AND FENCES.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

MAD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1117 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     HAIL             3 SE RIPLEY             35.98N 96.87W
05/03/2021  E1.75 INCH       PAYNE              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

OKZ025-026-028>030-040500-
Oklahoma OK-Pottawatomie OK-Cleveland OK-McClain OK-Lincoln OK-
1134 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Oklahoma...
northwestern Pottawatomie...northeastern Cleveland...central McClain
and southern Lincoln Counties Until midnight CDT...

AT 1132 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Newalla to near Norman to near Noble, moving northeast at 45
MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...
Heavy rain can lead to reduced visibility...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Eastern Norman, Shawnee, Tecumseh, Purcell, Choctaw, Noble, Harrah,
Slaughterville, McLoud, Pink, Meeker, Johnson, Sparks, Etowah,
Stella, Dale, Newalla, Lake Thunderbird, Bethel Acres and Little Axe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3563 9672 3546 9677 3502 9717 3506 9747
      3526 9732 3545 9722 3561 9695
TIME...MOT...LOC 0432Z 226DEG 40KT 3543 9716 3529 9725 3517 9736

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 PM     HAIL             2 NNW INGALLS           36.13N 96.90W
05/03/2021  E1.75 INCH       PAYNE              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

OKZ027-039-045-040600-
Grady OK-Stephens OK-Jefferson OK-
1156 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Grady...Stephens and
northwestern Jefferson Counties Until 100 AM CDT...

AT 1154 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Marlow to 7 miles southeast of Duncan to near Waurika, moving
east at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...
Heavy rain can lead to reduced visibility...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Duncan, Marlow, Waurika, Comanche, Bray, Velma, Loco, Addington,
southeastern Waurika Lake and Cox City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 9773 3446 9760 3402 9776 3412 9808
      3444 9798 3472 9806
TIME...MOT...LOC 0454Z 265DEG 12KT 3466 9796 3445 9788 3415 9799

03