Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
628 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Overnight)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

Storms are expected to develop quickly late this afternoon into this
evening along a cold front that will be located across portions of
southeast into south central Oklahoma. A favorable environment for
severe storms will exist ahead of the cold front across this area.
Initially as storms are expected to be more discrete, supercells
capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes will be possible
along with strong winds gusts.

This activity will become more linear, probably just as it exits our
southeast counties, winds will be an increasing threat.

Meanwhile, farther west as the main trough begins to shift east out
of the southern Rockies, additional storms will develop across west
Texas. These storms will be elevated as they form well north of the
surface cold front. However, sufficient instability will exist for
some large hail as these storms move into the western north Texas
counties. As we approach midnight, instability will be waining and
hail size is expected to decrease as storms move toward the I-35
corridor of southern Oklahoma. Other, weaker activity will also
impact much of western and northern Oklahoma overnight.

Otherwise, quite a bit colder air will filter south behind the cold
front. Temperatures are expected to fall into the 40s across
portions of northwest Oklahoma with gusty north winds, giving it a
bit of a bite. Lows in the 50s are expected elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

System that will bring showers/storms tonight will exit the area
Tuesday morning. Some showers may linger in parts of the fa tomorrow
morning but should end by mid-day. Sfc high will also settle into
the area tomorrow with below average temperatures expected. As the
sfc high moves off to the east, winds will shift back towards the
south Wednesday.

Models then show a shortwave approaching from the northwest and
moving across the Plains Wednesday night. Models show an area of
showers/storms moving across parts of the fa with this shortwave
although disagree on how much and path of the area of rain.

Upper ridging will briefly occur behind the previously mentioned
shortwave before flattening out the end of this week with a
shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains Friday night
bringing another chance for showers/storms to parts of the area.
Various shortwaves/disturbances moving through the flow will
continue over the weekend which will maintain the chances for
showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

MVFR cigs will return later tonight mainly after 06Z for most
terminals. Winds will remain northerly around 15 kt with some
stronger gusts before 09Z. A few showers and tsra are expected
mainly after 06Z near SPS, PNC, and SWO.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

A 19Z May 3 Upper Air flight was done today. A 0Z flight currently
is not planned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  63  44  70 /  40  40   0   0
Hobart OK         52  68  43  73 /  40  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  57  69  46  75 /  40  10   0   0
Gage OK           46  66  41  74 /  60  10   0  10
Ponca City OK     51  65  41  68 /  50  40   0  10
Durant OK         59  68  46  73 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...03

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
759 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-050100-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
759 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms this evening
until midnight across portions of southern and eastern Oklahoma.
The enhanced risk area is near and east of a line from Allen to
Fittstown to Lake Murray. Tornadoes will be possible with
supercells that develop in the enhanced area, along with hail up
to the size of baseballs and thunderstorm wind gusts up to 70 mph.
There is a medium potential of tornadoes in southeast Oklahoma.
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms south and east of a
line from Eldorado to Marlow to Noble and Cushing.

By early this evening, additional thunderstorms are expected to
develop near the cold front across southeastern Oklahoma and these
thunderstorms may be severe with the potential of tornadoes, large
hail and strong winds. Farther north and west, additional
elevated thunderstorms may develop in west Texas and move east
across north Texas and southern Oklahoma this evening north of the
cold front. The primary risk with these storms will be large hail
up to the size of golf balls.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
southern and eastern Oklahoma and north Texas should prepare for
severe weather operations after 5 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Overnight thunderstorms may linger into Tuesday morning across
north
central, portions of central into eastern Oklahoma, although
severe weather is not expected.

Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night with no severe
weather expected. Thunderstorm chances return again Friday evening
and continue through Sunday, although storms are not expected to
be widespread.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
639 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

OKZ047-048-051-052-040015-
Atoka OK-Johnston OK-Marshall OK-Bryan OK-
639 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Atoka...southeastern
Johnston...northeastern Marshall and northwestern Bryan Counties
Until 715 PM CDT...

AT 637 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over northeastern
Lake Texoma, moving northeast at 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Tishomingo, Milburn, Coleman, Fillmore, Little City, Nida and
northeastern Lake Texoma.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3402 9655 3405 9672 3429 9666 3430 9631
      3424 9629
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 228DEG 29KT 3413 9658

Mahale

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
714 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     HAIL             5 NE GENE AUTRY         34.34N 96.99W
05/03/2021  E1.00 INCH       MURRAY             OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PICTURES OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL. TIME IS
            ESTIMATED.

&&

RCB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
752 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

OKZ026-030-031-040115-
Pottawatomie OK-Seminole OK-Lincoln OK-
752 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northeastern Pottawatomie...
northern Seminole and southeastern Lincoln Counties Until 815 PM
CDT...

AT 749 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles southeast of
Shawnee, moving northeast at 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...

Locations impacted include...
Shawnee, Tecumseh, Prague, Earlsboro, Johnson, Little and Centerview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 9646 3525 9693 3529 9698 3560 9662
      3540 9662 3540 9660 3541 9658 3540 9657
      3540 9656 3539 9655 3539 9654 3541 9654
      3544 9657 3546 9654 3544 9652
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 236DEG 28KT 3531 9687

Mahale

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
755 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

OKZ028-030-031-040-042-040130-
Pottawatomie OK-Garvin OK-Pontotoc OK-McClain OK-Seminole OK-
755 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR south central Pottawatomie...
northeastern Garvin...northwestern Pontotoc...southeastern McClain
and southern Seminole Counties Until 830 PM CDT...

AT 754 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
8 miles west of Roff to near Ada, moving northeast at 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Ada, Stratford, Konawa, Byng, Asher, Francis, St. Louis, Sasakwa and
Vanoss.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3511 9647 3511 9649 3497 9649 3478 9662
      3464 9697 3464 9710 3505 9694 3513 9644
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 224DEG 36KT 3466 9699 3478 9671

Mahale

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
814 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

OKZ030-031-040200-
Pottawatomie OK-Seminole OK-
814 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Pottawatomie and
northern Seminole Counties Until 900 PM CDT...

AT 814 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Little to near Maud to 4 miles northwest of Wanette, moving east
at 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...

Locations impacted include...
Seminole, Tecumseh, Maud, Earlsboro, Bowlegs, Tribbey, Cromwell, St.
Louis, Brooksville, Macomb, Little, Harjo and Trousdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 9707 3496 9714 3512 9714 3540 9656
      3539 9655 3539 9654 3541 9654 3545 9644
      3525 9644
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 247DEG 28KT 3531 9668 3516 9676 3501 9707

Mahale

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
826 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

OKZ051-040200-
Marshall OK-
826 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Marshall County Until 900 PM
CDT...

AT 824 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Willis, moving
northeast at 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...

Locations impacted include...
Madill, Kingston, Willis, Woodville, Little City, northern Lake
Texoma, Oakland and Mcbride.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3387 9679 3387 9683 3385 9686 3389 9689
      3394 9690 3417 9677 3416 9662 3407 9655
      3404 9658 3401 9658 3401 9662 3397 9658
      3390 9664 3392 9666 3391 9667 3383 9671
      3383 9676
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 211DEG 37KT 3386 9683

Mahale