Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
608 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

Widespread showers are expected this evening with areas of
thunderstorms moving in from west Texas. Although overall
instability is relatively low, CAPE to 3 km is healthy ahead of
the storms moving into the southwest corner of the area, and very
cold mid-level air will be moving in with the storm system giving
us the potential of some low-topped supercells depending on how
things evolve this evening. There have already been reports of
strong winds and wind damage in Lubbock's area. Models really
differ on how much instability will be available as the storms
move farther east, but there is at least some potential for storms
to persist given the cold mid-level temperatures and increasing
surface dewpoints. The thunderstorms potential will decrease
overnight, but showers will persist into tomorrow especially with
the wrap-around precipitation area on the northwest side of the
upper low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

Split flow upper pattern across North America will persist through
the long term, with the southern flow digging a couple of upper
troughs with surface boundaries through our area mid-week and at the
end of this week.

Wednesday, an upper low and positively tilted shortwave trough will
be in place across the U.S. Southwest, while elongated area of low
pressure will settle across much of Texas, with a surface boundary
stretched across the Southern High Plains. Models consistently
showing a narrow southerly low-level jet flow developing overnight
Tuesday across across western Texas, somewhat weak around 25kt at
925 mb to a maxima of 50 kts at 850 mb. Expecting Gulf moisture
advection by the jet to converge with a northerly 850 mb flow east
of the trough across both the Central and Southern High Plains
resulting in precipitation breaking out across western Oklahoma
through western north Texas.  Although much of our forecast area
will remain capped, cannot rule out a few elevated storms develop
late in the morning across our southwest, with up to 600 J/kg of
MUCAPE to work with.  By Wednesday afternoon, expecting the southern
850 mb flow to shift further east and continue to transport
moisture across the remainder of Oklahoma, with the strongest return
across southeast Oklahoma with up to 1-inch of precipitable water.
Will also see the surface boundary start to push through as the
upper trough continues to edge closer.  Isentropic ascent becomes
more widespread on the 295 K surface with the increasing moisture
advection, so spatially increased POPs across our area for the
afternoon hours, although keeping them low due to some uncertainty
having ample moisture to work with.  Will maintain thunder in the
weather grids across much of our area as mid-level cooling may
steepen lapse rates for elevated storms, with up to 1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE into central Oklahoma.  At this point, don't see any severe
risk, but perhaps a few strong thunderstorms into the evening mainly
across our southeast.  Otherwise, the opened upper low starts moving
through during the evening and overnight hours.  Will keep thunder
in our southeast, but expect stability across the remainder of our
area with rain, ending across northwest Oklahoma by midnight.  All
models fairly consistent now with the main trough axis moving
through on Thursday afternoon, so will maintain low POPs for rain
across the remainder of our area through the afternoon while
maintaining seasonably cooler temperatures in the 50s.

Friday we will see a brief return of breezy south winds with a
fairly strong low level jet overhead.  Went a little more robust
with the afternoon windspeeds than the weaker NBM.  Friday evening
through overnight, a weak lee based front will push through our
area, while an upper trough digs across the Central Plains.  Most of
our area should remain dry, although could see some evening storms
across far northern Oklahoma.  Dry this weekend with mild and
seasonably warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms, along with IFR
conditions will continue for a few hours this evening. Storms
expected to end later this evening with lingering showers across
northern half of Oklahoma through much of the night. Skies
expected to clear from southwest to northeast during the day
tomorrow. Gusty south winds will shift to the west and northwest
overnight into the day tomorrow. Winds will diminish late in the
day Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  44  64  41  58 /  90  10   0  30
Hobart OK         41  66  39  53 /  60   0   0  40
Wichita Falls TX  44  70  44  66 /  50   0   0  30
Gage OK           36  61  35  46 /  80  10   0  60
Ponca City OK     46  58  38  56 /  90  30   0  30
Durant OK         49  70  46  74 /  90   0   0  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...30

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
440 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

OKZ023-038-222215-
Caddo OK-Comanche OK-
440 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southern Caddo and north central
Comanche Counties Until 515 PM CDT...

AT 437 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
4 miles north of Meers to near Lake Lawtonka, moving northeast at 45
MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3485 9866 3486 9862 3494 9862 3523 9840
      3493 9809 3465 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 219DEG 38KT 3484 9860 3475 9851

..speg.

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