River Flood Advisory 14, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
628 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

The stacked low passing overhead lifts northeast today towards
the central plains and our region will lie within the wake of the
surface low with a tight pressure gradient. As a result, surface
winds shift to the west/northwest today with breezy conditions
expected through most of the day. Winds begin to diminish from
southwest to northeast during the afternoon and evening hours. Any
remaining showers should exit our area by late-morning. The dense
stratus is expected to slowly lift northeast with the attendant
low with mostly sunny skies expected over the southwestern two-
thirds of the CWA by afternoon. High temperatures will be tempered
by how long the clouds linger, but most areas should rise into
the 60s (OK) and near 70 over our TX counties.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for Wednesday for
areas south/east of a line from Prague - Oklahoma City - Medicine
Park - Electra. If storms develop, the main hazards would be large
hail and damaging wind gusts.

A shortwave trough swings down from the Pacific Northwest and amplifies
over the four corners region Tuesday night into Wednesday. In response
to the dynamic lift aloft, a weak surface low and warm front develop
over north Texas. Some moisture return is expected over far south/east
portions of the area on Wednesday afternoon and evening, but surface
dewpoints are only expected to reach near 50 to 55 degrees. Weak,
elevated instability with MUCAPE values near 400 to 800 J/kg and bulk
shear values near 50-60 knots are prog'd for southern portions of south-
central Oklahoma and western north Texas. Marginally severe thunderstorms
may develop over western/central Oklahoma Wednesday evening and progress
SE on Wednesday night. As for now, though, there is low confidence in
any severe storm development given the lack of moisture and instability.
Precipitation chances continue across southeast Oklahoma on Thursday
morning prior to the passage of upper trough axis.

A weak shortwave may travel across the TX panhandle and across KS on
Friday, and there is a low probability of showers across far NE portions
of our CWA on Friday night. A cold front then exits KS and moves across
our area on Saturday, though only a slight reduction in high temperatures
are forecast for Sunday. An upper trough then approaches the area early
next week and will bring chances for heavy rainfall. There are timing
differences between the models, and so arrival of the rain (if any)
is fuzzy. The 00Z GFS is rather bullish and has heavy rain spreading
northeast across our area on Monday, whereas the 12Z ECMWF shows little
rain developing over SE OK on Tuesday.

Otherwise, mild temperatures are expected with an uptick to above
average beginning Friday.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

MVFR conditions will continue much of the day at KPNC and perhaps
KWWR, with the MVFR conditions farther south and west expected to
lift into VFR category between 14 and 16Z. Gusty west-northwest
winds will be seen across all terminals today, with veering to
northerly and weakening by 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  41  61  41 /  10   0  20  50
Hobart OK         65  38  57  38 /   0   0  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  69  42  67  42 /   0   0  20  30
Gage OK           60  35  48  33 /  10   0  60  50
Ponca City OK     58  39  58  41 /  30   0  20  60
Durant OK         70  45  73  49 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
446 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
446 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday evening into Thursday
morning. A few severe storms appear possible across south-
central and southeast Oklahoma on Wednesday evening. Strong to
severe storms are possible on Thursday morning over southeast
Oklahoma.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible on Friday over
southwestern Oklahoma and adjacent areas of western north Texas
due to breezy south winds, warm temperatures, and low relative
humidity.

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