Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Norman, OK

957 
WWUS54 KOUN 260335
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1035 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

TXC275-260400-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0218.000000T0000Z-210526T0400Z/
Knox TX-
1035 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY...

At 1035 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Rhineland,
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Munday, Knox City, Benjamin, Goree and Rhineland. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 9984 3359 9980 3363 9948 3340 9947
TIME...MOT...LOC 0335Z 264DEG 19KT 3350 9968 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

30

326 
WWUS54 KOUN 260356
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1056 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

TXC275-260406-
/O.EXP.KOUN.SV.W.0218.000000T0000Z-210526T0400Z/
Knox TX-
1056 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 1100 PM CDT...
                 
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However
small hail and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3340 9984 3359 9980 3363 9948 3340 9947
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 284DEG 22KT 3348 9955 

$$

30

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
607 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

Although overall flow is weak over the region, very dynamic
regime exists with multiple MCVs (southwest KS, south-central OK,
eastern OK). While showers and a few thunderstorm will occur with
the MCV moving slowly eastward over southern Oklahoma, little in
the way of impacts are expected. There will be a continued heavy
rain threat for southeast portions of Oklahoma where a large area
of 3 to over 5 inches of rain fell last night and early this
morning. Beneath the center of this MCV, scattered storms
developed near Wichita Falls and will progress eastward along the
Red River Valley of southern Oklahoma through the afternoon. Given
the strong directional shear associated with this feature, cannot
rule out funnel clouds. Given lower level stability and weak
lapse rates, do not expect much threat for any surface contact.
All of this activity should shift east of our CWA toward evening.

MCV across southwest Kansas will likely be our main player in
weather tonight and at least first part of tomorrow. With
interaction of a weak surface trough across the Texas and Oklahoma
panhandle/far northwest Oklahoma, storms are expected to develop
late this afternoon and evening near northwest and west-central
Oklahoma. These storms may then organized and dive south and
southeast overnight with an initial threat of damaging hail,
evolving into mainly a wind concern late this evening and
overnight. If this activity can build eastward, which most of the
CAMS do not depict, flooding concerns would increase into central
and southeast Oklahoma by daybreak tomorrow. Overall, we will keep
the highest PoPs across western and southern portions of
Oklahoma, into western north Texas, tonight and tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

On Thursday, a mid-level trough will move through the Central
Plains. Later in the day, a weak cold front is expected to move
into the KS/OK border. Ahead of this front, a moist boundary layer
will become very unstable with daytime heating (MLCAPE upwards of
4000 J/kg). Modest deep-layer shear, in addition to the strong
instability, will foster the development of some organized severe
storms early. Storms should grow upscale quickly and form into a
line of storms. The primary threats will be very large hail
(possibly significant i.e., >2 inches) and damaging winds, but a
tornado cannot be ruled out. As the storms form into a line, the
hail threat will transition into a wind threat overnight.

The aforementioned surface front is expected to stall around the
Red River area on Friday after the convective activity exits the
area. As a shortwave moves through the area, showers and the
potential for storms will be focused near and along this boundary.
Over the weekend, precipitation chances decrease as a weak
shortwave ridge moves in over the area.

Early next week, models are hinting at a shortwave moving into
the Southern Plains, which could bring in more storm chances on
Monday and Tuesday. Confidence in organized severe is very low at
this time. Southerly surface flow will dominate most of the long
term, other than the aforementioned boundaries traversing the
area. Temperatures should stay around normal across the area for
most of the long term.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

VFR conditions expected at the start of the forecast period. MVFR
ceilings are expected to redevelop overnight across parts of the
area with some thunderstorm chances out across the west this
evening and overnight. In the wake of these storms should see most
sites remain VFR through remainder of the forecast period. Winds
will be rather light out of the south/southeast with some
variability in vicinity of storms.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

An Upper Air flight is planned for 00Z this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  85  70  86 /  30  10  10  40
Hobart OK         64  88  69  89 /  40  30  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  66  89  71  90 /  30  30  10  20
Gage OK           60  88  66  89 /  40  20  30  30
Ponca City OK     64  85  70  85 /  30  10  30  70
Durant OK         68  84  71  86 /  30  30   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
814 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-270115-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
814 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
western Oklahoma and western north Texas this evening. Storms
that develop along a dryline in the panhandles up into Kansas will
make their way east and southeast into Oklahoma and western north
Texas this evening. The main hazard for storms will be large hail
up to the size of golfballs and wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph. Most
likely time for severe storms will be through 2 am.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
western Oklahoma and western north Texas should prepare for
severe weather operations this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Most days will see a chance for thunderstorms this week with
Thursday having the greatest chance for severe weather.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms in far northwest
Oklahoma Wednesday evening.

There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday
evening and overnight across most of Oklahoma with a slight risk
extending into western north Texas.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
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