River Flood Advisory 56, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
249 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms continue this morning
along and east of a SW-NE oriented surface trough centered roughly
along the I-44 corridor. So far activity has been scattered and
moving enough to preclude flooding concerns. Expect activity to
become a bit more widespread by late morning into the afternoon as
heating/destabilization occurs. Even with the recent heavy rainfall
over the areas most likely to see storms today, the scattered and
disorganized nature of convection should preclude heavy rainfall
lasting for extended periods over any one location. Have
therefore decided against an extension of the Flood Watch which
expires at 12z this morning, with the expectation that any
flooding we do see today will be more isolated/minor than the
previous couple days. With continued clouds, precipitation, and
saturated ground temperatures will once again remain well below
average, in the upper 70s to low 80s for highs.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

The flow pattern over Oklahoma will remain very weak through this
week. The seasonal southeastern U.S. high pressure will drift slowly
westward and there will be almost no change in the air mass through
the week. Rain and thunderstorms are likely at least through mid-
week, but coverage will be scattered and QPF lower than we have
observed during the weekend. By the weekend, a low pressure trough
is expected to evolve southwestward southern Ontario into the
midwestern U.S. The resulting northerly flow over eastern Oklahoma
will put rain chances higher over southern and eastern Oklahoma.
Without any surface boundaries or recognizable synoptic or mesoscale
drivers, pops will remain widely distributed until the weekend. A
marginal risk for flooding may continue beyond Tuesday given the
saturated ground over much of Oklahoma outside of the southeastern
quadrant.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

Very low confidence in timing and location of storms will improve
some during the day on Monday, as low-level convergence near the
remains of a stalled front (near I-44) supports increasing storms
during the afternoon and into the evening. After that, the
position of storms will again be very dependent on what happens
earlier in the day. Some low ceilings (around 1500 to 2500 ft) and
lowered visibilities will be possible overnight and early Monday,
mainly in the same areas that had heavy rainfall (all but far
northwest Oklahoma and south-central/southeast Oklahoma).

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

No upper air flights are planned at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  69  80  69 /  80  70  80  50
Hobart OK         81  67  80  67 /  70  70  80  60
Wichita Falls TX  82  70  83  69 /  80  70  70  40
Gage OK           82  65  79  64 /  30  50  60  50
Ponca City OK     80  68  81  68 /  70  70  80  50
Durant OK         85  70  87  70 /  80  70  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ008-012-013-
     016>020-022>032-035-037>042-044>046.

TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1056 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-290400-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1056 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered thunderstorms will continue into tonight, especially
across southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

.Flooding...
Additional rainfall will continue into tonight, which will
continue the risk of flooding through Oklahoma and western north
Texas. Southwestern and central Oklahoma are more prone to
continued flooding due to antecedent rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances continue through Friday.

.Flooding...
Because of saturated ground, a marginal risk for flooding
continues through the week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Mahale