River Flood Advisory 43, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1052 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

A complex mesoscale pattern is ongoing this afternoon with 3
convectively-enhanced areas of ascent depicted on water vapor and
radar mosaic: 1) one across central Oklahoma, 2) one west of DFW,
and 3) one in the central Texas panhandle.

The expectation is the one centered near DFW will continue to move
to the east-southeast and the one across Texas panhandle border will
continue to move to the east. The stratiform area of the DFW one
will affect western north Texas and perhaps far southern Oklahoma.
The second area may affect areas near I-40 into this evening.
Confidence on it maintaining its intensity is low as thermodynamic
recovery ahead of this MCV is minimal/near zero in the wake of
the ongoing MCV. Nevertheless, at least some showers are possible
as this progresses eastward.

Generally dry conditons are expected on Tuesday as the trough axis
gradually moves to the east with northerly surface winds in its
wake. A few showers may occur across northern Oklahoma in proximity
of the trough and across the southeast Oklahoma as rain exits,
but overall convective coverage appears limited.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

For Wednesday though Friday, an elongated PV anomaly/lowered mid-
level heights will be in place across the Southern Plains.
Therefore, at least low probabilities for showers and thunderstorms
will be present with a weakness in the upper level pattern. Overall,
it appears there will be more dry periods than wet periods. However,
there might be occasional enhancements of ascent in this period,
which will increase the chance of showers/storms (predictability is
low on when this may occur).

By late in the weekend into early next week, an upper-level low
across northern Mexico is progged to drift into the Southern Plains.
As a result, more widespread rain is likely during the period with
an attendant flooding risk.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

Will maintain IFR overnight with some drizzle and patchy fog.
Ceilings will gradually rise during the day Tuesday, but most
sites will remain MVFR. Light northeast winds.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

No Upper Air flights are currently planned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  55  70  57  77 /  40  10  10  20
Hobart OK         57  71  56  79 /  30   0  10  30
Wichita Falls TX  60  73  59  80 /  30   0  10  20
Gage OK           53  69  52  79 /  20  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     53  70  54  76 /  40  20  20  30
Durant OK         64  76  61  80 /  90  40  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
732 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-020045-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
732 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will continue for the rest of the week into
next weekend, mainly across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas.
Organized severe storms are not expected.

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