Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
634 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

Heavy rain continues this morning as a large area of showers and
storms associated with an MCV is tracking through portions of
central and southern OK. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches have
been reported across southwest OK since yesterday evening with 1
to 3 inches reported so far across central OK. Expect this MCV to
continue to track eastward this morning and we should see
rainfall activity decrease as it does so. With a moist airmass
remaining in place will have to watch for any residual outflow
from morning convection (most likely across southeastern portions
of the area) as a potential focus for afternoon development. But
overall forcing appears weaker today compared to the past couple
days and expect coverage to be more isolated/scattered as a
result. Still, at least isolated heavy rainfall and flooding will
continue to be a risk with areas that do see storms today given
PWAT near 2" and saturated soils in many locales, and the Flood
Watch continues through the rest of the afternoon.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

The wet pattern will continue for much of the upcoming week as a
trough remains across the central plains and a very moist airmass
stays overhead. Models suggest the greatest coverage of storms on
Monday will likely be along a surface trough during the afternoon
and evening, most likely across central and southern OK, though
there is some disagreement on exactly where this trough will set
up. With such saturated soils flooding continues to be a concern
on Monday, but with uncertainty remaining on exactly where the
heaviest rain may fall held off on issuing any additional flood
watches at this time.

Forcing appears a little more nebulous Tuesday and Wednesday as
upper ridging retrogrades in from the east. Even with the ridging
overhead, capping does not appear overly strong so at least isolated
showers/storms appear possible both days. By Thursday the upper
ridge retreats to our southwest as upper troughing deepens to our
north. This should help send a cold front southward into our area by
later on Thursday which will serve as a focus for thunderstorm
development through at least Friday morning. Models then show the
front pushing to our south as a surface high builds overhead. This
should finally allow for a drying trend as we head into next weekend.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

Showers will be most widespread earlier this morning and decrease
towards late morning. Mainly VFR conditions are expected outside
of a few exceptions early on this morning. Redevelopment of
storms will be greatest east of I-35 this afternoon but storms
may spread westward this evening. Winds will be fairly light but
variable through the day at most locations.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

No upper air flights are planned at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78  68  81  68 /  80  70  80  70
Hobart OK         80  67  80  66 /  70  70  70  70
Wichita Falls TX  85  69  84  69 /  50  70  80  70
Gage OK           83  64  80  63 /  40  30  50  50
Ponca City OK     79  68  82  68 /  80  70  70  70
Durant OK         89  71  86  70 /  60  60  90  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 6 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>042-044>046.

TX...Flood Watch until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-281000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected over all of Oklahoma and
adjacent parts of northern Texas, and they are more likely south and
east of Oklahoma City.

.Flooding...
Heavy rainfall is likely through late morning, but the risk of
flooding will persist until Monday morning since many areas have
saturated ground. Southwestern and central Oklahoma are more prone
to continued flooding than other areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances continue through Friday.

.Flooding...
Because of saturated ground, a marginal risk for flooding continues
into Tuesday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow our
weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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