River Flood Watch 3, NWS Spokane, WA

791 
WGUS66 KOTX 161344
FFAOTX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Spokane WA
544 AM PST Tue Nov 16 2021

...The Flood Watch is replaced with a River Flood Warning for the 
following rivers in Washington...

  Okanogan River near Tonasket affecting Okanogan County.

WAC047-161445-
/O.CAN.KOTX.FL.A.0003.000000T0000Z-211116T1344Z/
/TONW1.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
544 AM PST Tue Nov 16 2021

...FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A RIVER FLOOD WARNING...

The Flood Watch is replaced by a river flood warning
   for the Okanogan River near Tonasket.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:15 AM PST Tuesday the stage was 12.9 feet.
  - Forecast...Flood stage may be reached this evening.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (4 am PST)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Wed   Thu   Fri          

Okanogan River
Tonasket      15.0  12.9  Tue 5 am PST 16.3  16.7  14.3         


&&

LAT...LON 4895 11945 4893 11932 4825 11951 4832 11968

$$

JW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
354 PM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Strong winds will return this afternoon and evening, bringing the
potential for damage and significant impacts. The system will
bring mountain snow and rain showers to the region too. The area
dries out into midweek, then a chance for snow or a mix comes in
to most of the area around later Thursday into Friday. This could
be the first measurable snow for some lower elevation areas of the
season.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG WIND EVENT TONIGHT...

Tonight through Tuesday night: A strong low pressure system is
still on track to bring strong winds to the Inland Northwest
tonight before things wane, relatively speaking, overnight into
Tuesday. The surface low was near Kamloops, BC with at pressure
of 987 mb at 2 PM PST. It is projected to continue to deepen
(maybe another 5-6 mb) as it moves east and into Alberta through
the remainder of this afternoon and evening. The cold front
trailing south of the low is currently moving over the Cascades
and is expected to rapidly push east toward the ID border
between and 3 and 8 PM PST, leading to the rapid increase of the
strong wind. The initial burst of wind may be be sudden/quick, as
they envelop the area between about 3 PM and 5 PM and remain at
their peak through about 8 to 10 PM.

At the 2 o'clock hour, sustained winds between 20 to 35 mph were
common from around Moses Lake/Ephrata north into the Waterville
Plateau, with gusts of 40 to 55 mph. As the front accelerates east
and the low continues to deepen, those wind gusts are expected to
be higher around the Upper Columbia Basin eastward with gusts
around 50-65 mph possible. I still can't rule out gusts near 70
mph, but these should be isolated. A broad high wind warning
remains in place southeast WA into the central ID Panhandle,
including the Spokane area and Palouse. Wind advisories are in
place everywhere else. The speeds then start to decrease after
about 9 PM to 12 AM. However the area to monitor will be in the
immediate lee of the Cascades into the Okanogan, with a secondary
surge on the backside of the precipitation threat.

With recent rains moistening the soils/ground, this could make
trees more susceptible to falling. Expect damage to trees etc,
power outages, travel issues (especially on north-south oriented
routes).

The precipitation is the other feature of the system. The primary
precipitation band has been rapidly developing over the eastern
third of WA/ID in the past hour or so, but outside of the
mountains it is not expected to amount to much. The colder air on
the backside will quickly drop snow levels and this will have the
most impact near the Cascades. That is where the steadier
precipitation has been, largely in the form of rain. Yet as the
colder air moves in, it will turn to snow. Some moderate to heavy
snow is projected near the Cascade crest, potentially near 5-12
inches, locally higher at the immediate crest. Winter weather
advisories remain in place for that area through Tuesday morning.
Right snow web cams show rain, but it should rapidly change over
as we go after sunset. The snow rates could be heavy at times if a
Puget Sound Convergence Zone sets up just right.

There is the potential for some isolated snow showers falling
outside of the mountains later this evening/overnight over the
northern counties, maybe as far south as the US-2 corridor. This
would be due to the upper trough axis and instability and
lingering deformation axis, but there is a lot of dry air behind
the front. If they do occur here it should be no more than
flurries or a brief burst, but we will monitor it.

Going into Tuesday the area remains in a breezy westerly flow.
Snow chances will continue near the Cascade crest and central
Panhandle mountains, though amounts should be limited. Winds will
remain around the 10-20 mph range, with gusts near 30 mph or so.
/Cote'

Wednesday through Thursday morning: A drier and calmer period
with a weak, transient ridge aloft. Temperatures are expected to
drop another 10 degrees Wednesday morning with lows in the 20s and
highs closer to 40 degrees. Thursday temperatures currently look
to be similar to Wednesday. The drop in temperatures combined
with some residual moisture from Tuesday's precipitation will
make Wednesday morning fog a possible occurrence for the Idaho
Panhandle into the Pullman and Spokane areas. Otherwise, we are
expecting increasing cloud cover heading into Thursday and light
winds.

Thursday afternoon through Friday: There is still some
disagreement between models on the strength of our next system,
but here's the gist: we could be seeing our first (light) snow of
the season that includes much of the lowlands. However, it is
possible that temperatures are just warm enough for a wet snow
that does not stick to roadways. We will start off in a warm
front scenario with uncertainty on when and where the front sets
up - this is directly correlated with our uncertainty of
temperatures and precipitation amounts. A cold front will follow,
bringing additional precipitation. Winds may pick up with the cold
frontal passage around Friday afternoon, but they are not
expected to be very strong at all. Widespread fog may also develop
as early as Friday afternoon.

Saturday and Sunday: Residual moisture with slight chances of
mountain snow showers and a large portion of the area seeing
continued chances of fog and/or low stratus development through
Sunday morning. RC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs: A strong cold front pushing through the region,
bringing a strong wind event. It will lead to wind sustained
winds near 25-35 kts and gusts near 40-55 kts through -06Z. Winds
will start to gradually decrease overnight into Tuesday morning
but still remain breezy with gusts in around 25 kts. An area of
precipitation will accompany the front, pushing through 03Z,
before most of that moves to the mountains. Colder air comes in
rapidly behind it. /JDC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        30  43  22  40  25  41 /  50  10   0   0   0  10
Coeur d'Alene  31  42  22  39  25  41 /  70  10   0   0   0  10
Pullman        29  40  22  39  26  41 /  70  20   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       38  48  29  44  31  47 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       25  44  18  40  22  40 /  60  10   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      31  40  21  37  23  39 /  90  20   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        30  37  22  38  27  42 /  90  40   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     32  49  22  44  28  41 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      35  47  27  42  30  41 /  30  10   0   0   0  20
Omak           29  47  22  41  27  41 /  20   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Northern
     Panhandle.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse.

     Wind Advisory until midnight PST tonight for Lewis and Southern
     Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for Western
     Chelan County.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for Central Chelan
     County-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-
     Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Northeast
     Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Lower
     Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Washington
     Palouse.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM PST this evening for Upper Columbia
     Basin.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 AM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

IDZ001>004-WAZ031>037-044-161230-
Northern Panhandle-Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-
Central Panhandle Mountains-Northeast Blue Mountains-
Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse-
Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Spokane Area-
Northeast Mountains-Waterville Plateau-
422 AM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Idaho...
Central Washington...East Central Washington...Northeast
Washington and Southeast Washington.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Strong winds with gusts to 60 mph are possible. This could lead
to downed trees and power outages and create hazardous driving
conditions for high profile vehicles.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A wintry mix of rain and snow is expected Thursday.

IDZ026-027-WAZ038-041-043-047-049-161230-
Lewiston Area-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-
Okanogan Highlands-Wenatchee Area-Okanogan Valley-
Central Chelan County-Western Okanogan County-
422 AM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Central
Idaho and North Central Washington.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Gusty winds with isolated gusts near 40 mph are possible with
locally stronger winds in the mountains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

WAZ048-161230-
Western Chelan County-
422 AM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Central
Washington.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Snow will impact travel across Stevens Pass this afternoon and
tonight creating winter travel conditions.In addition wind gusts
in excess of 50 mph will be possible over exposed ridgetops.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Light to moderate snow may impact western Chelan County,
including near the passes into Tuesday morning. Additional snow is
expected Thursday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1141 AM PST MON NOV 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 ENE SHERMAN PASS      48.61N 118.46W
11/15/2021                   FERRY              WA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TWO TREES DOWN ON SR 20 AT MP 315 BLOCKING
            BOTH DIRECTIONS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
332 PM PST MON NOV 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SHERMAN PASS            48.61N 118.48W
11/15/2021                   FERRY              WA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERMAN PASS CLOSED, SO FAR ABOUT 4-5 TREES
            DOWN ON THE ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
341 PM PST MON NOV 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST EPHRATA                 47.30N 119.52W
11/15/2021  E55 MPH          GRANT              WA   ASOS

            EPHRATA AIRPORT.

&&

GK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
343 PM PST MON NOV 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST POMEROY                 46.47N 117.59W
11/15/2021  E55 MPH          GARFIELD           WA   PUBLIC

            CWOP WEATHER SENSOR. ELEVATION 2333 FEET.

&&

GK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
434 PM PST MON NOV 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSE SPOKANE VALLEY    47.63N 117.22W
11/15/2021  E45 MPH          SPOKANE            WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUST 45 MPH. SHINGLES COMING OFF THE
            ROOF.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
435 PM PST MON NOV 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG POST FALLS              47.71N 116.94W
11/15/2021                   KOOTENAI           ID   PUBLIC

            DOWNED POWER LINES IN ATHOL, SPIRIT LAKE,
            POST FALLS, SAGLE, COEUR DALENE... HEARD BY
            MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC VIA POLICE SCANNER &
            THEY KEEP COMING IN.

&&