Alert archive / New York / Winter Weather Advisories in 2021
Winter Weather Advisory 9, NWS New York, NY
NWS New York, NY issued this winter weather advisory at Feb 17, 2021, 3:55 PM EST for 11 counties in New York; 4 counties in Connecticut; 5 counties in New Jersey. It took effect at Feb 18, 2021, 4:00 AM EST. It was in force for 39 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 17, 2021, 3:55 PM EST (20:55 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 18, 2021, 4:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Feb 19, 2021, 6:41 PM EST
- In force
- 39 hr
- Issued by
- NWS New York, NY
Counties Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Westchester County, NY
The radar
The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 71 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1197 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 90 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -178 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -11 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
538 WWUS41 KOKX 172055 WSWOKX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 355 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 CTZ009-NJZ004-006-104>108-NYZ071>075-078-176>179-181200- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0003.210218T1100Z-210219T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0009.210218T0900Z-210220T0000Z/ Southern Fairfield-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union- Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk- Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 355 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Snowfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected Thursday, with total snowfall accumulations of 5 to 9 inches by the end of the event on Friday. A light glaze of ice accumulation is possible Thursday Night as well. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 4 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This will be a long duration winter weather event. Light to moderate snowfall is likely early Thursday morning into afternoon. A light wintry mix of sleet and/or freezing rain is possible for a period Thursday evening into Thursday Night, before turning back to light snow on Friday morning and ending in the afternoon or evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. && $$ NYZ079>081-181200- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0003.210218T1100Z-210219T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0009.210218T1100Z-210220T0000Z/ Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk- 355 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Snowfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected Thursday, with total snowfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches by the end of the event on Friday. * WHERE...Northeastern Suffolk, Southwestern Suffolk and Southeastern Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...From 6 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This will be a long duration winter weather event. Light to moderate snowfall is likely Thursday morning into afternoon. A light wintry mix of sleet and/or rain is likely for a period Thursday evening into Thursday Night, particularly the south fork of Long Island. Precipitation is expected to turn back to light snow on Friday morning before ending in the evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. && $$ CTZ005-NJZ002-103-NYZ067>070-181200- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0003.210218T1100Z-210219T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0009.210218T0900Z-210220T0000Z/ Northern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Western Bergen-Orange-Putnam- Rockland-Northern Westchester- 355 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Snowfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected Thursday, with total snowfall accumulations of 5 to 9 inches by the end of the event on Friday. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 4 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This will be a long duration winter weather event. Light to moderate snowfall is likely early Thursday morning into afternoon. Periods of light snow are then expected Thursday Night into Friday morning, before ending in the afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. && $$ CTZ006>008-010>012-181200- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0003.210218T1100Z-210219T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0009.210218T1100Z-210220T0000Z/ Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London- Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- 355 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Snowfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected Thursday, with total snowfall accumulations of 5 to 8 inches by the end of the event on Friday. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut. * WHEN...From 6 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This will be a long duration winter weather event. Light to moderate snowfall is likely Thursday morning into evening. Periods of light snow are then expected Thursday Night into Friday afternoon, before ending in the evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc
5 follow-up statements
046 WWUS41 KOKX 180846 WSWOKX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 346 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 CTZ009-NJZ004-006-104>108-NYZ071>075-078-176>179-182100- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0009.210218T0900Z-210220T0000Z/ Southern Fairfield-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union- Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk- Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 346 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Snowfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected today, with total snowfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches by the end of the event on Friday. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. && $$ NYZ079>081-182100- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0009.210218T1100Z-210220T0000Z/ Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk- 346 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Snowfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected today, with total snowfall accumulations of 4 to 7 inches by the end of the event on Friday. * WHERE...Southeastern Suffolk, Southwestern Suffolk and Northeastern Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. && $$ CTZ005-NJZ002-103-NYZ067>070-182100- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0009.210218T0900Z-210220T0000Z/ Northern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Western Bergen-Orange-Putnam- Rockland-Northern Westchester- 346 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected today, with total snowfall accumulations of 4 to 7 inches by the end of the event on Friday. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. && $$ CTZ006>008-010>012-182100- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0009.210218T1100Z-210220T0000Z/ Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London- Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- 346 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected today, with total snowfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches by the end of the event on Friday. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc
252 WWUS41 KOKX 182052 WSWOKX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 352 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 CTZ009-NJZ004-006-104>108-NYZ071>075-078-176>179-191100- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-210220T0000Z/ Southern Fairfield-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union- Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk- Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 352 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Light snow and sleet with a chance of freezing drizzle. Additional snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches through Friday afternoon, and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible tonight. Total snow and sleet accumulations Thursday through Friday afternoon of 6 to 8 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. && $$ NYZ079>081-191100- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-210220T0000Z/ Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk- 352 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Light snow and sleet with a chance of freezing drizzle. Additional snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches through Friday afternoon, and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible tonight. Total snow and sleet accumulations Thursday through Friday afternoon of 5 to 8 inches. * WHERE...Southeastern Suffolk, Southwestern Suffolk and Northeastern Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. && $$ CTZ005-NJZ002-103-NYZ067>070-191100- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-210220T0000Z/ Northern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Western Bergen-Orange-Putnam- Rockland-Northern Westchester- 352 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Light snow, with a chance of freezing drizzle. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches through Friday afternoon, and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible tonight. Total snow accumulations Thursday through Friday afternoon of 4 to 7 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. && $$ CTZ006>008-010>012-191100- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-210220T0000Z/ Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London- Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- 352 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Light snow, with a chance of sleet and freezing drizzle. Additional snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches through Friday afternoon, and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible tonight. Total snow and sleet accumulations Thursday through Friday afternoon of 4 to 7 inches, highest along the coast. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Coastal sections will have a better chance of sleet mixing in with the snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc
458 WWUS41 KOKX 190840 WSWOKX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 340 AM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 CTZ009-NJZ004-006-104>108-NYZ071>075-078-176>179-192200- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-210220T0000Z/ Southern Fairfield-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union- Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk- Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 340 AM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. && $$ NYZ079>081-192200- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-210220T0000Z/ Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk- 340 AM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Southeastern Suffolk, Southwestern Suffolk and Northeastern Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. && $$ CTZ005-NJZ002-103-NYZ067>070-192200- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-210220T0000Z/ Northern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Western Bergen-Orange-Putnam- Rockland-Northern Westchester- 340 AM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow for Orange and Western Passaic Counties, mixed precipitation elsewhere. Additional snow accumulations of one to two inches. Additional ice accumulation of a light glaze in those areas that see mixed precipitation. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. && $$ CTZ006>008-010>012-192200- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-210220T0000Z/ Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London- Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- 340 AM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations up to two inches and additional ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc
297 WWUS41 KOKX 192021 WSWOKX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 321 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-192130- /O.CAN.KOKX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-210220T0000Z/ Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen- Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union- Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk- Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk- Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 321 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... Intermittent light snow may still be possible into early evening, with only a coating of additional accumulation expected. $$ CTZ005>012-200000- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-210220T0000Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- 321 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Light snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch. * WHERE...Southern Connecticut. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc
110 WWUS41 KOKX 192341 WSWOKX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 641 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 CTZ005>012-200045- /O.CAN.KOKX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-210220T0000Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- 641 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... Light snow will still be possible for the next few hours with less than an additional inch of snow expected. $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Feb 17, 1:11 PM EST, 2 hours 44 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 17, 1:11 PM EST, 2 hours 44 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
111 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region through this evening. The
high will depart to the north late tonight, giving way to an
area of low pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast. A series of
lows will then track to the south and east of the area from
Thursday into Friday. High pressure will then build in for the
weekend. The next weather system is then slated for Monday into
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Polar high pressure builds into the area through this evening.
Otherwise, high clouds will increasingly filter sunshine
through the late day with highs today will struggle to reach
the freezing mark, ranging from the upper 20s inland, to the
lower 30s at the coast. This is about 10 degrees below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The focus this period shifts to another southern branch storm
system that will interact with a polar airmass across the
region, continuing in what has been an active month.
A departing polar vortex across eastern Canada and a deep-
layered SW flow emanating from the southern branch longwave
trough over the Plains will provide confluent flow to the north,
allowing polar high pressure to strengthen across the NE
tonight. At the same time, an active frontal zone along the
eastern Gulf of Mexico, extending along the SE and Mid Atlantic
coasts, will funnel a series of lows that will pass south and
east of the area Thursday into Friday. Ahead of the first wave,
snow will break out from SW to NE Thursday morning into the
afternoon.
Guidance continues to trend colder with the system with the low
track generally near the 40n...70W benchmark. However, global
models are in good agreement with a long period of light to
occasionally moderate snow through Friday as multiple waves
passes to the SE. The NAM remains an outlier with strong
frontogenetic banding to the NW of the first low on Thursday
with the potential for heavy snow, especially along the coast.
It produces liquid equivalent amounts of a half inch at the far
NW corner of the Lower Hudson Valley to over an inch across the
NYC metro and LI by early Thursday evening. There is also a
strong upper jet to the NW of the area. However, in assessing
the guidance, the better jet dynamics appear to come in Friday
as the RRQ of the upper jet approaches. Additionally, while
there is a strong baroclinic zone to the NW of the low track,
the low is fairly weak and the best thermal forcing may reside
just south of the area. Overall,the NAM seems to be overdone
with the lift, but at the same time it has been consistent over
the last several runs. Still though, it like the global models
has continued to shift to the south with the frontal zone and
low tracks. This will have to be watched closely today to see if
it falls into the consensus with a longer, drawn out snowfall
event. In fact, much of the guidance points to snowfall amounts
of 6 to 8 inches across the area, but over a 24 to 36h period.
Warning criteria is 6 inches or more in 12h, or 8 inches or more
in 24h. The latter is looking more likely at this time.
Additionally. the ECMWF and GGEM indicate some of this snow
could hang on into Friday evening/night as the last piece of
southern branch energy kicks out. The GGEM even brings moderate
to heavy snow into eastern LI/SE CT. Thus, the Winter Storm
Watch has been extended into Friday.
As for ptype, this is looking to be a mainly snow event with
perhaps some mixing with sleet across LI and the NYC metro
Thursday night into Friday. If that does not happen, the higher
snowfall totals could very well be at the coast. For now,
going with a uniform 4 to 8 inches across the entire forecast
area.
Temperatures through the period will remain unseasonably cold
with lows tonight in the teens inland and the lower 20s at the
coast. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 20s to around 30 and
will remain nearly steady Thursday night, possibly slowly rising
along the coast. Highs on Friday will be in the lower to mid
30s, but possibly colder if snow persists through the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A 1030s high builds in over the weekend, so generally fair and
cold. There could be a few flurries of shsn with the passage of
the h5 trof late Sat. NBM pops were dry so left the fcst dry at
this point. The NBM with the usual local adjustments was used
for temps. Highs about 10 degrees blw climo.
The next storm is Mon into Tue. The ECMWF continues to want to wrap
up a deeper low, with the GFS much weaker. There is still time to
see how this evolves, but it looks like we will be getting a sys
based on the persistence in the modeling. The fcst is for rain or
snow across the entire area, with eventual p-type dependent on the
track.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure over the terminals shifts to the north this
evening as low pressure approaches from the southwest, and then
moves off the mid Atlantic coast Thursday afternoon.
VFR until late today, then a chance of MVFR as light snow begins
to develop, especially at the New York City metro terminals. By
early Thursday morning light snow is expected to become
widespread with IFR to LIFR conditions, continuing through the
remainder of the forecast.
The New York City metro terminal runways may see 2 to 3 inches
of accumulation by 18Z Thursday, with 1 to 2 inches at KHPN,
KISP, KSWF, and KBDR, with less than an inch at KGON.
NW/N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N this evening, then NE late
overnight into Thursday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected into tonight. Amendments
becoming likely toward Thursday morning as light snow develops.
There is some uncertainty as to the timing of the onset of
light snow.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday...IFR/LIFR with light snow. Some sleet may begin to
mix in with the snow late in the afternoon and into the evening
at KEWR/KTEB/KJFK/KLGA/KISP/KGON.
.Friday...MVFR/IFR with a wintry mix along the coast, and light
snow continuing inland. Chance VFR late in the evening and
overnight. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 8 inches, with
locally higher possible.
.SATURDAY...VFR. NW wind 20-25kt.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.Monday...MVFR to IFR possible with rain and snow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Wind gusts have fallen below 25kt across the water. Waves on western
ocean zone have fallen below 5 ft, while the central ocean zone
likely falls below 5 ft by late this afternoon, and the eastern
ocean zone by evening.
Winds and waves remain below SCA criteria through Thursday morning
as the center of high pressure moves north of the waters and the
pressure gradient relaxes.
A storm system will approach from the southwest late Wednesday night
into Thursday, and by Thursday afternoon the pressure gradient
increases again, allowing for a return to SCA conditions that should
last through the day Friday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through next Tue.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Friday
afternoon for CTZ005>012.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Friday
afternoon for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Friday
afternoon for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ355.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
353.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DWHazardous weather outlook, Feb 17, 4:38 AM EST, 11 hours 17 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service New York NY 438 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-180945- Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex- Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland- Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk- Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk- Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 438 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please safely report significant weather conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-180945- Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 438 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS warning criteria. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria.
The office that day
Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 3:58 PM EST | Small Craft Advisory | OKX | 4 days |
Nearby
Winter Weather Advisories in New York, 2021Winter Weather Advisories in New Jersey, 2021Winter Weather Advisories in Connecticut, 2021Every winter weather advisory in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.