Small Craft Advisory 19, NWS New York, NY

733 
WHUS71 KOKX 180849
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
349 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021

ANZ350-353-355-182200-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.210218T1100Z-210220T0000Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
349 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 4 to 7 feet expected.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ330-340-182200-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.210218T1800Z-210219T1800Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
349 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and
  seas 2 to 4 feet expected across the eastern sound and 1 to 3
  feet expected in the bays.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound east of Port Jefferson and New 
  Haven, and Peconic and Gardiners Bays.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

278 
WHUS71 KOKX 182053
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
353 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021

ANZ350-353-355-191100-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210220T1100Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
353 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ330-340-191100-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210219T1800Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
353 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound east of Port Jefferson and New 
  Haven, and Peconic and Gardiners Bays.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

053 
WHUS71 KOKX 190852
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
352 AM EST Fri Feb 19 2021

ANZ350-353-355-192200-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210220T2300Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
352 AM EST Fri Feb 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt,
  becoming north this afternoon, then northwest late tonight. 
  Seas 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ330-340-191800-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210219T1800Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
352 AM EST Fri Feb 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 1 to 3 feet.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound east of Port Jefferson and New 
  Haven, and Peconic and Gardiners Bays.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

622 
WHUS71 KOKX 192022
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
322 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021

ANZ350-201000-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210220T2300Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
322 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 6 to
  9 ft.

* WHERE...Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ353-201000-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210220T2300Z/
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
322 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 6 to
  9 ft.

* WHERE...Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ355-201000-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210220T2300Z/
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
322 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 5 to
  8 ft.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

483 
WHUS71 KOKX 200834
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
334 AM EST Sat Feb 20 2021

ANZ350-202215-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210221T1100Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
334 AM EST Sat Feb 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 4 
  to 6 ft.

* WHERE...Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ353-202215-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210221T1100Z/
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
334 AM EST Sat Feb 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 4 
  to 6 ft.

* WHERE...Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ355-202215-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210221T1100Z/
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
334 AM EST Sat Feb 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 4 
  to 6 ft.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

703 
WHUS71 KOKX 202000
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
300 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021

ANZ350-202230-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210221T1700Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
300 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ353-202230-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210221T1700Z/
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
300 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ355-202230-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210221T1700Z/
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
300 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

252 
WHUS71 KOKX 202025
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
325 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021

ANZ350-211030-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210221T1700Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
325 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ353-211030-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210221T1700Z/
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
325 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ355-211030-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210221T1700Z/
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
325 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

522 
WHUS71 KOKX 210824
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
324 AM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

ANZ350-211700-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210221T1700Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
324 AM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ353-211700-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210221T1700Z/
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
324 AM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ355-211700-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210221T1700Z/
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
324 AM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

045 
WHUS71 KOKX 211432
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
932 AM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

ANZ355-211545-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210221T1700Z/
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
932 AM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and seas have fallen below Small Craft Advisory criteria,
therefore the advisory was cancelled.

$$

ANZ350-211700-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210221T1700Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
932 AM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ353-211700-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210221T1700Z/
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
932 AM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

348 
WHUS71 KOKX 211701
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1201 PM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

ANZ350-353-211815-
/O.EXP.KOKX.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210221T1700Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
1201 PM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds and seas have fallen below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
111 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region through this evening. The
high will depart to the north late tonight, giving way to an
area of low pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast. A series of
lows will then track to the south and east of the area from
Thursday into Friday. High pressure will then build in for the
weekend. The next weather system is then slated for Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Polar high pressure builds into the area through this evening.

Otherwise, high clouds will increasingly filter sunshine
through the late day with highs today will struggle to reach
the freezing mark, ranging from the upper 20s inland, to the
lower 30s at the coast. This is about 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The focus this period shifts to another southern branch storm
system that will interact with a polar airmass across the
region, continuing in what has been an active month.

A departing polar vortex across eastern Canada and a deep-
layered SW flow emanating from the southern branch longwave
trough over the Plains will provide confluent flow to the north,
allowing polar high pressure to strengthen across the NE
tonight. At the same time, an active frontal zone along the
eastern Gulf of Mexico, extending along the SE and Mid Atlantic
coasts, will funnel a series of lows that will pass south and
east of the area Thursday into Friday. Ahead of the first wave,
snow will break out from SW to NE Thursday morning into the
afternoon.

Guidance continues to trend colder with the system with the low
track generally near the 40n...70W benchmark. However, global
models are in good agreement with a long period of light to
occasionally moderate snow through Friday as multiple waves
passes to the SE. The NAM remains an outlier with strong
frontogenetic banding to the NW of the first low on Thursday
with the potential for heavy snow, especially along the coast.
It produces liquid equivalent amounts of a half inch at the far
NW corner of the Lower Hudson Valley to over an inch across the
NYC metro and LI by early Thursday evening. There is also a
strong upper jet to the NW of the area. However, in assessing
the guidance, the better jet dynamics appear to come in Friday
as the RRQ of the upper jet approaches. Additionally, while
there is a strong baroclinic zone to the NW of the low track,
the low is fairly weak and the best thermal forcing may reside
just south of the area. Overall,the NAM seems to be overdone
with the lift, but at the same time it has been consistent over
the last several runs. Still though, it like the global models
has continued to shift to the south with the frontal zone and
low tracks. This will have to be watched closely today to see if
it falls into the consensus with a longer, drawn out snowfall
event. In fact, much of the guidance points to snowfall amounts
of 6 to 8 inches across the area, but over a 24 to 36h period.
Warning criteria is 6 inches or more in 12h, or 8 inches or more
in 24h. The latter is looking more likely at this time.

Additionally. the ECMWF and GGEM indicate some of this snow
could hang on into Friday evening/night as the last piece of
southern branch energy kicks out. The GGEM even brings moderate
to heavy snow into eastern LI/SE CT. Thus, the Winter Storm
Watch has been extended into Friday.

As for ptype, this is looking to be a mainly snow event with
perhaps some mixing with sleet across LI and the NYC metro
Thursday night into Friday. If that does not happen, the higher
snowfall totals could very well be at the coast. For now,
going with a uniform 4 to 8 inches across the entire forecast
area.

Temperatures through the period will remain unseasonably cold
with lows tonight in the teens inland and the lower 20s at the
coast. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 20s to around 30 and
will remain nearly steady Thursday night, possibly slowly rising
along the coast. Highs on Friday will be in the lower to mid
30s, but possibly colder if snow persists through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A 1030s high builds in over the weekend, so generally fair and
cold. There could be a few flurries of shsn with the passage of
the h5 trof late Sat. NBM pops were dry so left the fcst dry at
this point. The NBM with the usual local adjustments was used
for temps. Highs about 10 degrees blw climo.

The next storm is Mon into Tue. The ECMWF continues to want to wrap
up a deeper low, with the GFS much weaker. There is still time to
see how this evolves, but it looks like we will be getting a sys
based on the persistence in the modeling. The fcst is for rain or
snow across the entire area, with eventual p-type dependent on the
track.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure over the terminals shifts to the north this
evening as low pressure approaches from the southwest, and then
moves off the mid Atlantic coast Thursday afternoon.

VFR until late today, then a chance of MVFR as light snow begins
to develop, especially at the New York City metro terminals. By
early Thursday morning light snow is expected to become
widespread with IFR to LIFR conditions, continuing through the
remainder of the forecast.

The New York City metro terminal runways may see 2 to 3 inches
of accumulation by 18Z Thursday, with 1 to 2 inches at KHPN,
KISP, KSWF, and KBDR, with less than an inch at KGON.

NW/N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N this evening, then NE late
overnight into Thursday.

    ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are expected into tonight. Amendments
becoming likely toward Thursday morning as light snow develops.
There is some uncertainty as to the timing of the onset of
light snow.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday...IFR/LIFR with light snow. Some sleet may begin to
mix in with the snow late in the afternoon and into the evening
at KEWR/KTEB/KJFK/KLGA/KISP/KGON.
.Friday...MVFR/IFR with a wintry mix along the coast, and light
snow continuing inland. Chance VFR late in the evening and
overnight. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 8 inches, with
locally higher possible.
.SATURDAY...VFR. NW wind 20-25kt.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.Monday...MVFR to IFR possible with rain and snow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Wind gusts have fallen below 25kt across the water. Waves on western
ocean zone have fallen below 5 ft, while the central ocean zone
likely falls below 5 ft by late this afternoon, and the eastern
ocean zone by evening.

Winds and waves remain below SCA criteria through Thursday morning
as the center of high pressure moves north of the waters and the
pressure gradient relaxes.

A storm system will approach from the southwest late Wednesday night
into Thursday, and by Thursday afternoon the pressure gradient
increases again, allowing for a return to SCA conditions that should
last through the day Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through next Tue.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Friday
     afternoon for CTZ005>012.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Friday
     afternoon for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Friday
     afternoon for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
     353.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
438 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-180945-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
438 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please safely report significant
weather conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-180945-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
438 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.