Special Marine Warning 99, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1253 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong frontal system moves across the area today. A
secondary cold front crosses through the area later Saturday.
Weak high pressure briefly nudges into the area from the
southwest on Sunday. One area of low pressure weakens to the
west early Monday, while a secondary low develops east of the
area then pulls away. High pressure then builds Monday night and
remains through mid week. A cold front then approaches later in
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A strong cold front continues to work its way across the region.
The wind shift associated with the front is working its way
across Brooklyn and Queens and is making its way from the NY/CT
border. Locations to the west will see winds weaken as they
shift to the SW and W. The back edge of the rain is also making
it into western Orange County and northeast New Jersey. The
rain should end from west to east across the western half of the
area by 1pm.

To the east across Long Island and southern Connecticut,
moderate to occasionally heavy rain will persist through the
middle of the afternoon. The cold front/wind shift will make its
way across and should be moving offshore 19-20z. Strong gusty
winds are also possible ahead of the main line due to strong low
level winds. Wind gusts 35 to 45 mph cannot be ruled out. There
have been signs the main line is weakening across the southern
end, with the strongest portion lifting northeast into southwest
Connecticut. Will have to see if the line tries to redevelop
across Long Island. Strong gusts are also possible along and
ahead of the windshift and main line. Once the front moves
across, the threat for heavy rain and gusty winds ends.

Rainfall amounts across Long Island and southern Connecticut are
still expected to range from one half to around one inch. A few
isolated locations could see up to one and a quarter to one and
a half. Rainfall amounts for the remainder of the day west of
the Hudson River will be a quarter inch or less.

Highs today will be in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Generally looking at dry conditions tonight as weak high
pressure builds in behind the cold front. Lows tonight will drop
into the 40s across much of the forecast area, however a few
locations well north and west of NYC and the Pine Barrens of
Long Island may see temperatures fall into the upper 30s.

The first half of Saturday should be mainly dry, however by
afternoon a rather strong shortwave, embedded in the long wave
trough moves across the area. Clouds increase in the afternoon,
along with increasing POPs, as there will be enough instability
to set off the chance of some rain showers during the afternoon
and evening hours. Depending on how far the shortwave digs, we
could see a chance of rain across the entire CWA, however, the
best chances will be across the Lower Hudson Valley and southern
CT. This system will be progressive enough that it should move
north of the region quickly during Saturday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term.

Mainly dry conditions are then expected Saturday night with any
precipitation lifting out of the area early in the evening.
With the precip ending quickly, not expecting any wintry mix as
the colder temperatures lag behind the departing system quite a
bit, so the noticeably colder air gets in after midnight and
closer to daybreak. Therefore brisk and dry conditions are
expected to begin Sunday. Seasonably chilly temperatures are
expected on Sunday as high pressure briefly nudges in from the
southwest.

Clouds will then begin to increase from the west into late
Sunday and Sunday evening as another shortwave dives in from the
midwest and Great Lakes. This will be another progressive
system as the occluded / primary low off to west shuts off and a
secondary low attempts to get going just off the coast. With
the lack of any meaningful amplification of the ridge out west,
expecting this system to stay progressive in the mid and upper
levels as the upper level energy should stay diffuse, which
would preclude the type of cyclogenesis that would significantly
impact the area. For now, chance POPs seems prudent for the day
on Monday. There is a slight chance that a few wet snowflakes
could mix in briefly with any rain showers, especially as the
system departs. Much of the global guidance has trough axis
getting to the northeast into Monday evening with maybe far
northeastern zones getting into more lift briefly late in the
day and early evening with the ECMWF guidance lagging a bit with
respect to the overall speed of the mid and upper level
features. In any event, clearing should ensue quickly Monday
night into Tuesday morning with breezy to potentially windy
conditions, depending on how quickly the departing system can
deepen.

High pressure will build into Tuesday and remain close by into
Wednesday providing dry weather and seasonable temperatures,
with temperature moderation expected late Wednesday into
Thursday. This is when a return flow develops on the back side
of the high. A frontal system is then expected to approach on
Thursday and Thursday night. This will bring the next chance of
rain to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Behind the cold frontal passage, weak high pressure builds in
this evening and for the overnight. A secondary cold front moves
through the terminals tomorrow afternoon.

Widespread MVFR conditions with localized IFR conditions will
continue through the afternoon with conditions improving to VFR behind
the frontal passage late this afternoon and into this evening as
high pressure builds in.

Rain will continue on and off for eastern areas through the
afternoon. For NYC terminals, rain comes to an end after 19-20Z
with VFR conditions prevailing thereafter.

Ahead of the cold front, southeast winds 15-20 kt with gusts
25-30 kt. There may be brief gusts to 35 kt ahead of the cold
front. LLWS will continue ahead of the front, mainly for eastern
terminals through the afternoon. The wind shifts to the W-SW
with the frontal passage with gusts ending. Then late in the
afternoon winds become primarily W-NW around 10 kt, and then
light and variable late tonight. Strengthening southerly flow
Saturday morning will result in some gusts to 20kts in the late
morning ahead of a secondary cold front. Behind the secondary
frontal passage from 17-20Z Saturday, winds become W10-20G30kt.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for the changing of flight categories and
exact timing of wind shift through the afternoon and early
evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday afternoon...Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible in the
afternoon with a chance of showers/storms. S winds shifting to
W G20-30kt in the afternoon and evening.
.Sunday...VFR.
.Monday...Chance of MVFR and showers.
.Tuesday...VFR. NW gusts 20-25 kt possible.
.Wednesday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A strong cold front crosses the waters this afternoon. Ahead of
the front widespread SCA conditions with occasional gale force
winds are possible. Some stronger convection may also produce
winds in excess of 34 kt. A water spout cannot be ruled out.

The front should be east of the waters by 4pm with winds
diminishing below SCA levels. Ocean seas will remain elevated
into tonight.

Small craft conditions are expected to continue through much of
the weekend as seas remain primarily above 5 ft. By Sunday
afternoon or night, its possible that the western two thirds of
the ocean could start to see some more marginal SCA seas with
seas potentially getting down closer to 4 ft. By Monday
afternoon as an offshore low attempts to develop and circulate
with more widespread SCA conditions developing. A brief period
of gale force gusts are possible on the ocean later Monday night
into Tuesday morning in the wake of departing low pressure with
small craft conditions elsewhere. SCA conditions are likely to
continue into Tuesday on a west to northwest flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to occasionally heavy rain this afternoon could bring
some minor urban and poor drainage flooding across Long Island
and southern Connecticut. Rainfall rates could reach one half
inch an hour at times. Total amounts of around three quarters to
one inch are expected. Further west, rainfall amounts for the
rest of the day will be lighter, with the rain ending by middle
afternoon. No hydrologic impacts are expected for the rest of
the afternoon from NYC metro on west.

At this time any precipitation for the extended period looks to be
light, thus no hydrologic impacts are anticipated.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BC/JE
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC/JE/JP
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BC/JE
HYDROLOGY...BC/JE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
432 AM EST Fri Nov 12 2021

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-130945-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
432 AM EST Fri Nov 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A strong frontal system will push across the forecast area today.
This system will bring a period of moderate to locally heavy
rainfall from this morning through early to mid afternoon. Although
widespread flooding is not expected, minor flooding of urban areas,
small streams, and poor drainage areas is possible. Rainfall amounts
will generally average around an inch, however locally higher
amounts up to an inch and a half may be possible. With most of the
rain falling in a 3-6 hour window, the local area has been placed in
a marginal risk of excessive rainfall.

In addition, The Storm Prediction Center has put the entire area in
a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms with the primary threat
being strong wind gusts up to 60mph. In addition, a brief tornado
can not be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is
requested and appreciated.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-130945-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
432 AM EST Fri Nov 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A strong cold front will push across the area waters today. There is
potential for a brief period of gale conditions, particularly on the
ocean waters, ahead of a cold frontal passage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

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