Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
839 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Updated suite of forecast products per latest regional trends.
Most heavy rainfall activity around and south of I-40 Corridor.
Current meteorological analysis and interpretation suggests mid
state may be transitioning from more of a severe threat to a
flooding threat. However, certainly the severe threat is not
totally over with favorable low level vertical shear continuing
across mid state region. Still certainly looks like some locations
will experience between 4 to 5 inches of rainfall before this
event is all over. Consensus short term model solutions continuing
to show a large area of showers and thunderstorms continuing to
develop to our west and pushing them through at least locations
around west of the I-65 Cooridor by sunrise on Sunday, with bulk
of showers and thunderstorms moving out of mid state region by
late morning hours on Sunday. Tweaked hourly temperature,
dewpoint, and wind speed/direction grids and blended them with
previously forecasted associated late evening through overnight
hours. Refreshed suite of forecast products with shower and
thunderstorm development and timing movement a blended solution of
previous forecast along with latest HRRR and NAMNest model runs.
Remainder of forecast remains on track.

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV...Several admendments probable through 28/24Z,
mainly up to 28/16Z when shwrs and tstms are expected to finally
move east of mid state region. Best potential for heavy rainfall
impacts MQY and CSV, lightest amounts CSV. Initial sfc E/SE winds
will veer to NW by 28/18Z. Continuance of strong surface pressure
gradient influences will allow gusts to around 20kts at times.
Mainly VFR, MVFR during rainfall events, vsbys expected. Ceilings
will fluctuate between VFR/MVFR thresholds. LLWS expected to be
pronounced enough CSV around 28/05Z to support 40kt wind shear
at top of 2 KFT Layer.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......JB Wright
AVIATION........JB Wright

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1229 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-281730-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
1229 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across all of Middle
Tennessee this afternoon into tonight. Damaging winds, large hail,
and isolated tornadoes will all be possible. Additional rounds of
heavy rainfall expected through tonight and overnight. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts of 5
to 6 inches, expected on already saturated ground conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

River impacts from rainfall today and early Sunday morning will be
possible. Some local rivers are expected to reach up to moderate
flood stage by early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following
all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

09

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
824 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0819 PM     FLOOD            7 SW MURFREESBORO       35.80N  86.50W
03/27/2021                   RUTHERFORD         TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FLOODED ROADWAYS ACROSS MURFREESBORO INCLUDING E.
            OVERALL CREEK RD/NEW SALEN HWY, SAINT ANDREWS DR./GENOA
            DR., S. MOLLOY LN/BRIDGE AVE., HERTIAGE PARK DR./WARD
            DR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2100353

CMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
833 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     HAIL             5 ESE BRADYVILLE        35.71N  86.09W
03/27/2021  E1.50 INCH       CANNON             TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            PING PONG SIZE HAIL NEAR HOLLOW SPRINGS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2100354

CMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
836 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     FLOOD            SPRING HILL             35.74N  86.92W
03/27/2021                   MAURY              TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            FLOOD WATERS THREATENING HOMES IN SPRING HILL ALONG HWY
            31& MILES JOHNSON/DUPLEX.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2100355

CMA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
846 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

TNZ065-066-080-280230-
Cumberland TN-Van Buren TN-White TN-
846 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CUMBERLAND...NORTHEASTERN VAN
BUREN AND SOUTHEASTERN WHITE COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 846 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Sparta, moving east at 50 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crossville, Sparta, Spencer, Fairfield Glade, Crab Orchard, Pleasant
Hill, Lake Tansi, Cumberland Mountain State Park, Slate Springs,
Indian Rock Lake, Virgin Falls State Natural Area and Fall Creek
Falls State Park.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 314 and 339.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3590 8471 3586 8473 3583 8477 3582 8480
      3576 8492 3577 8493 3575 8502 3577 8504
      3576 8507 3577 8510 3577 8525 3575 8527
      3575 8547 3597 8550 3600 8531 3598 8526
      3601 8526 3608 8480 3600 8472 3591 8468
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 255DEG 45KT 3586 8538

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
900 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

TNZ061-062-075-280245-
Rutherford TN-Bedford TN-Marshall TN-
900 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL...CENTRAL
RUTHERFORD AND NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 900 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles northeast of Lewisburg, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro, Smyrna, Walterhill, Chapel Hill, Eagleville, Rover,
Lascassas, Christiana, Rockvale and Unionville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 72 and 87.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 47 and 62.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3565 8680 3570 8674 3571 8669 3572 8670
      3575 8670 3575 8668 3577 8667 3577 8666
      3578 8666 3580 8664 3579 8661 3581 8661
      3581 8662 3583 8661 3600 8643 3587 8617
      3584 8618 3553 8663
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 221DEG 33KT 3565 8666

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
913 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

TNZ027-028-059-280300-
Williamson TN-Davidson TN-Wilson TN-
913 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DAVIDSON...NORTHEASTERN
WILLIAMSON AND NORTHWESTERN WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 913 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oak Hill, or near Nashville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Nashville, Hendersonville, Brentwood, Mount Juliet, Forest
Hills, Oak Hill, Belle Meade, Lakewood, Hermitage, Rural Hill,
Antioch, Belinda City, Berry Hill, Green Hill, Percy Priest Lake and
Gladeville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 199 and 235.
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 73 and 85.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 47 and 59.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 70 and 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3632 8644 3613 8631 3608 8649 3610 8652
      3608 8652 3608 8654 3609 8655 3607 8655
      3599 8686 3613 8694 3625 8662 3625 8659
      3627 8657 3628 8653 3628 8652 3629 8652
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 245DEG 30KT 3609 8681

Schaper