Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
304 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Forecast today kind of feels like a wait and see type of day. We
have been very stable this morning...but looking at satellite that
should be changing in the next couple of hours. Td are in the low
60s.  CAM models indicate that instability and helicity will be
here...just waiting for storms to pop. Will be sending up a 21Z
sounding to sample atmosphere as the area continues to
destabilize.

Rainfall so far today has been very minimal...and not sure the
flash flood watch will materialize. Will leave the watch in place
for any training storms.

Once the storms move out it will still be windy with the mid level
jet. Will keep the wind advisory from 4 pm through 4 am.

Tomorrow looks dry and seasonable. No real temperature drop behind
the front. The next round of rain and storms will be Saturday. SPC
has place the area under a slight for the day. Will continue to
watch...but no need to panic.

Sunday and Monday will be dry. Extended models are in a bit of a
disagreement with the next system on Wednesday/Wednesday night as
far as how it tilts and strength. Chance pops for now.

Temps look to be normal or slightly above.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Aviation conditions will deteriorate today as showers and storms
move into Middle Tennessee from the south. Winds are expected to
be gusty out of the south by 21z and into the overnight hours. Of
course if storms directly impact taf sites, expect strong to
severe winds. Tornadoes and hail are also possible with any storms
that develop this afternoon through this evening. In addition to
gusty surface winds, a low level jet will increase winds at 2000
feet to around 50 to 60 knots from around 21z to 00z today. MVFR
cigs will be in place for most of the afternoon and overnight,
but should give way to scattered high clouds Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      51  68  48  73  60 /  80   0  40  70 100
Clarksville    49  66  46  73  54 /  80   0  10  70  90
Crossville     49  65  46  68  58 / 100   0  50  70  90
Columbia       48  69  48  73  59 /  80   0  50  70  90
Lawrenceburg   48  68  49  72  60 / 100   0  50  70  80
Waverly        48  68  49  73  56 /  80   0  20  70  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-
Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Giles-
Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-
Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-
Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-
White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......12
AVIATION........11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
508 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-261015-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
508 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening across all
of Middle TN. The first of two rounds of severe storms could occur
this afternoon, between 1 and 6 pm, west of I-65. These storms could
contain strong, long-track tornadoes, large hail and could produce flash
flooding. The second round will be a broken line of storms that is
expected to cross the TN River around 6 pm and exit the Plateau by 11
pm. This broken line will carry the potential for damaging straight
line winds, large hail, flash flooding and multiple tornadoes.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of Middle TN until 1 AM
Friday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday across all of Middle
TN. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the main threats with these
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local,
state, and CDC guidelines.

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
315 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

TNZ061-094-095-252045-
Lawrence TN-Giles TN-Marshall TN-
315 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MARSHALL...SOUTHEASTERN
LAWRENCE AND GILES COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 315 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Pulaski, moving northeast at 80 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pulaski, Cornersville, Elkton, Minor Hill, Lynnville, Goodspring,
Frankewing and Prospect.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 3 and 28.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3500 8737 3541 8702 3538 8663 3536 8660
      3533 8660 3531 8668 3525 8675 3526 8683
      3508 8683 3499 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 218DEG 68KT 3503 8705

Rose