River Flood Advisory 94, NWS Nashville, TN

908 
WGUS84 KOHX 041333
FLSOHX

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Nashville TN
833 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

...The Flood Advisory is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Tennessee...

  Duck River At Centerville affecting Hickman County.

TNC081-041445-
/O.CAN.KOHX.FL.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-210504T1333Z/
/CNVT1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
833 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

...The Flood Advisory for the Duck River At Centerville has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Advisory is cancelled for
  the Duck River At Centerville.
* At 8:00 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 16.4 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 7.8 feet early Sunday 
  morning.


&&

LAT...LON 3582 8776 3592 8765 3577 8721 3565 8732

$$

07

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
839 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper level ridging influences strong enough to suppress
convective development has occurred this afternoon into these
early evening hours across mid state region keeping our area
dry and relatively cloud free. However weakening upper level
ridging influences anticipated by consensus model blends as mid
to late evening hours progress. What that will potentially bring,
if a forcing mechanism aloft like a shortwave passage in
developing southwesterly flow aloft occurs across mid state region,
is potential for rapid strong to severe thunderstorm development.
OHX 05/00Z sounding showing an atmosphere primed for strong
convection with sfc based CAPES well over 3,000 J/KG, LI -11, low
LCL/LFC heights, SFC-3 km SRH values around 220 M2/S2, and at
least in lower levels indication of a right turning hodograph,
with PW values approaching 1.4 inches. Latest HRRR model trends
are showing some bullseye of heavy rainfall amounts across mid
state region during overnight hours too and that trend will need
continued monitoring. Adjusted afternoon forecast to show
transition from a mostly clear with little vertical extent to
cumulus field environment early this evening to an environment
supportive of robust convective development mainly after midnight
tonight. Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint, wind speed, wind
direction, sky, and pop grids and blended them with previously
associated forecasted values. With continuance of strength of
southerly low level flow tonight, raised overnight low
temperatures on average by a couple of degrees across mid state
region. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track.

Again, the key player here is how long these strong enough upper
level ridging influences that having been suppress convective
development hang around mid state region this evening and
potentially into the overnight hours. If they actually hold
longer than consensus model blends advertise, development of
showers and thunderstorms may not occur as soon as previously
thought for the late evening through overnight time frame.
If these upper level ridging influences weaken more rapidly than
expected, strong convection could develop sooner than later.
Basically mid state continues to be in a wait and see mode as
these evening hours progress.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Currently have VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Developing VCTS
are possible after 02-03Z and continue intermittently through the
overnight hours. Will leave the CIGs VFR...but if a storm pops up
in or around a terminal CIGs and VISs could drop to IFR. Another
more definite round of showers and thunderstorms expected after
11Z which should bring MVFR conditions. There may be a break in
the late afternoon with a return to VFR after 18-20Z.

Wind will turn southerly and gust 15-20KT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......JB Wright
AVIATION........12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
813 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
813 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Some severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly after midnight
tonight across mid state region, especially northwest portions.
Main threats are damaging winds and large hail. Formation of a
tornado or two could also be possible, especially across northwest
portions. Brief heavy rainfall causing localized flooding will also
be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the day
and into at least the evening hours Tuesday. Severe storms are
possible with all threats possible, including damaging winds,
large hail, isolated tornadoes, and brief heavy rainfall
resulting in localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria...
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding
Hail >= 1/2 Inch
Winds > 50 MPH(Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or Power Lines Down