River Flood Advisory 38, NWS Nashville, TN

107 
WGUS84 KOHX 280345
FLSOHX

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1045 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...The Flood Advisory is replaced with a River Flood Warning for the 
following rivers in Tennessee...

  Buffalo River Near Lobelville affecting Perry County.

TNC135-280445-
/O.CAN.KOHX.FL.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-210328T0345Z/
/LBVT1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1045 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...The Flood Advisory for the Buffalo River Near Lobelville has been 
replaced...

The Flood Advisory is replaced by a river flood warning for
  the Buffalo River Near Lobelville.
* At 10:30 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 12.3 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage 
  tomorrow morning to a crest of 17.8 feet early Monday afternoon. 
  It will then fall below flood stage Tuesday evening.


&&

LAT...LON 3600 8789 3600 8783 3579 8774 3565 8778
      3565 8785 3579 8782

$$

LaRosa

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
712 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

After a stormy day yesterday, today has been pleasant and sunny.
Unfortunately today is all the reprieve we get before our next
severe weather system arrives tomorrow. We're expecting two rounds
of potentially severe weather from midday Saturday through Sunday
morning.

Our expected timing for the first round is from 12pm to
8pm Saturday. By daybreak tomorrow we'll be keeping an eye on a
warm front that is expected to lift north out of Alabama and
Georgia and into Tennessee. Initially we expect just showers with
a few rumbles of thunder but as the front pushes to our north and
a more unstable airmass moves into place any storms that develop
could become severe. The severe threat looks to be after 12pm and
could last as late as 8pm. Conditions look favorable for all modes
of severe weather. Bulk shear values from 50 to 60 knots and max
CAPE potentially around 1500 j/kg indicate organized strong and
long lasting updrafts are possible. In addition to that, mid
level lapse rates would indicate that large hail is also a threat.
Instability looks to remain high into the early evening hours,
then fall off substantially. So we should see a break in activity
for a few hours late tomorrow night.

The second round of storms is expected to come in the form of a
line of storms pushed east by a cold front early Sunday morning.
Timing for that line is around 2AM for entering the west and
exiting the east by 11am, or earlier. It does look like the line
should be moving quickly, so our flood threat is on the low side,
but grounds will be saturated with the rainfall from yesterday and
the rain that is expected to fall Saturday morning and afternoon.
The main threats with Sunday morning's system will be damaging
winds and quick spinup tornadoes. The bulk of this line will be
moving through when it's dark out, so have multiple ways of
getting warnings while you sleep.

After the frontal passage Sunday morning conditions will dry out
and temperatures will start to cool. Expect cool and dry weather
to stick around through Tuesday, then another potentially strong
system is forecast to move through the Tennessee Valley Wednesday
night. Low temperatures behind this system will fall into the low
30s and could bring about some frost late in the week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR continues thru 10-12z Sat before a warm front lifts north into
the Mid State. CIGs will quickly lower to MVFR/IFR after 12z with
an increase in SHRA/TSRA by 14z at BNA/MQY/CSV. A break in
SHRA/TSRA may occur after 21z across the terminals. Most SHRA
activity could remain south of CKV until the end of the TAF.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Saturday through Sunday evening
for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De
Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-
Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-
Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-
Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......11
AVIATION........Schaper

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
711 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-271000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
711 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late tonight for
locations generally south of I-40 and around and west of I-24.
Large hail will be primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Saturday night
across all of Middle Tennessee. Damaging winds, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes will all be possible. Multiple rounds of heavy
rainfall expected from mid morning hours on Saturday through at least
morning hours on Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with
locally higher amounts of 4 to 5 inches, expected on already
saturated ground conditions. Runoff impacts could last through
afternoon hours on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria...
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding
Hail >= 1/2 Inch
Winds > 50 MPH (Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or Power Lines Down

JB Wright