Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
633 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

Tonight...

An overnight MCS moved southeast of the region earlier this morning
leaving lingering cloud cover and a few discernible boundaries
across the forecast area. Early afternoon surface analysis showed a
cool front extending east to west across southern Nebraska where a
few early afternoon showers/thunderstorms were developing. Another
boundary extended from near low pressure over central Kansas into
northeast Kansas and this one is forecast to push northward toward
the NE/KS/MO border this evening. Convective initiation is
favoring this northern boundary as the southern boundary is fairly
capped per special KTOP 19z sounding. Supercells are very
possible in southeast Nebraska with all modes of severe weather
possible, including one or two tornadoes through the evening
hours, very large hail, damaging winds and flash flooding. Earlier
observed soundings indicate PW's around 120% of normal for this
area and increasing as deep moist advection continues. Bouts of
heavy rainfall are anticipated across areas near the southeast
Nebraska front and so in collaboration with neighboring offices,
have hoisted a small flash flood watch for a handful of southeast
Nebraska counties where training of storms with very heavy
rainfall is possible. Elevated convection is possible across the
area north of the boundary and any of these could be capable of
large hail through the evening hours.

Friday and Friday night...

Additional rounds of thunderstorms are possible into Friday and
Friday evening as a shortwave trough moves east across Nebraska. Any
remnant of an MCS will complicate the forecast with any residual
boundaries. Heavy rainfall is again possible, especially across
far southeast Nebraska.

Weekend into early next week...

A mid/upper-level trough axis is forecast over the region during
this time-period with amplified ridging over the northern Rockies.
This should favor a near-normal temperatures with intermittent storm
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

KOMA and KLNK will see variable conditions in and around
thunderstorms as they pass through the two sites over the first
few hours. VFR conditions are expected behind these storms with
another round possible Friday afternoon and evening.

For KOFK, mainly VFR conditions are expected through the early
part of the TAF with some chance for thunderstorms Friday
afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NEZ066>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for IAZ090-091.

&&

DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...Kern

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
340 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-251045-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
340 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

Severe storms are possible through 10 PM today. The greatest
chance for severe storms will be south of I-80 where very large
hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary hazards. There is a
chance for a tornado to develop mainly south of a Fairbury to
Lincoln to Red Oak line. Flash flooding will also be a concern,
over far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

North of Interstate 80, additional strong to severe thunderstorms
remain possible. Large hail will be the primary hazard with
storms in this area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Thursday

Strong to severe storms and some flash flooding will again be
possible on Friday afternoon into evening over portions of
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

Periodic non-severe storm chances will exist this weekend into
early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required through this evening across
southeast Nebraska. Storm damage reports are always appreciated.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
811 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W HAMBURG             40.60N 95.68W
06/24/2021                   FREMONT            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RAILCARS BLOWN OVER ON I-29 AND MILE MARKER
            8.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
823 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE CORDOVA            40.70N 97.33W
06/24/2021                   SEWARD             NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORT OF WATER OVER ROADS IN EXTREME
            SOUTHWEST CORNER OF SEWARD COUNTY. RELAYED
            BY DISPATCH.

&&

BLB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
850 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     FLOOD            2 ENE AUBURN            40.39N 95.81W
06/24/2021                   NEMAHA             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER HIGHWAY 136 DUE TO PLUGGED
            DRAINAGE TUBES.

&&

BLB