Gale Watch 20, NWS Marquette, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
653 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2021

The dry air can currently be seen filtering into the forecast area
on GOES imagery with just some light echo radar returns over the
eastern counties.  Meanwhile, the strong northwest winds will
persist into the evening until the pressure gradient weakens a bit.

The light winds combined with the clearing skies will be conducive
to strong radiational cooling early tonight.  Anticipate lows to dip
into the teens over the higher elevations, but low to mid 20s will
prevail over the Keweenaw Peninsula.  However, the pattern will
quickly shift by Wednesday morning as strong warm advection filters
into the UP ahead of the next low pressure system currently tracking
through Saskatchewan.

A weak short wave out ahead of the warm advection will produce just
enough forcing for some quick snowfall during the morning commute on
Wednesday.  Snow will be slow to start at first until the mid levels
are saturated, but expect western counties to see some accumulating
snow as early as Wed 06-09Z.  This will be a quick wave with the
bulk of the snow moving through the forecast area in the Wed 09-15Z
time frame and out of the forecast area by Wed 21Z.  With the strong
warm advection though, would not rule out a brief period of
rain/snow mixture in the late morning/early afternoon, cutting the
totals a bit.  Daytime highs are projected to top off in the upper
30s/low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2021

Ridging continues across the intermountain west with troughing
across the east and stout NW flow aloft across the Plains. A series
of low-amplitude clipper systems bring almost daily chances of light
snow as they track across the Great Lakes Region. Above normal
temperatures trend below normal temperatures with time, but overall
the extended period should average to near normal temperatures.
Despite frequent precip chances, a continuation of generally below
average precip seems likely for all except eastern Upper MI where
lake effect and synoptic precip may add up to near normal values.

Beginning at 00z Thursday a deepening ~990 mb surface low tracks
east-southeast across Ontario as a seasonably strong ~160 knot jet
streak crests the western CONUS ridge. WAA will be ongoing Wednesday
night and sub-freezing temperatures may be tough to achieve,
especially for locations influenced by SW downslope. A cold front
moves through late Wednesday night with gusty NW winds filling in
behind the front. Gales look increasingly likely on Thursday,
especially across the eastern half of Lake Superior. Some lake
effect snow showers should occur on Thursday, mainly across the
east. However, the LES environment isn't impressive with marginal
lake-850 mb delta-Ts, dry mid-levels, and warm surface temperatures.

A few light lake effect showers continue into Friday as the next
clipper tracks across the Upper Great Lakes region. 12z GEFS
guidance indicates a surface low track along the N/NE shoreline of
Lake Superior again placing our CWA on the warmer/drier side of the
system. The post-frontal LES environment appears more favorable than
Thursday with lake-850mb delta-Ts approaching 20C and somewhat
higher inversion heights. Surface ridging moves overhead late
Saturday into Sunday, which should gradually bring an end to LES as
the next system approaches.

Ensemble spread increases considerably on Sunday indicating a low
confidence forecast. However, GEFS and GEPS guidance indicates a
surface low tracking east across the CWA. This would be favorable
for widespread synoptic scale precip and temperatures currently
appear cool enough for snowfall, but this is all subject to change.
Looking further into the uncertain future, ensemble guidance
suggests the western CONUS ridge may retrograde westward early next
week. If that occurs then there may be an opportunity for more
central CONUS troughing by the middle of next week.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 653 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2021

VFR conditions will prevail tonight at IWD/CMX/SAW as a sfc high
pres ridge quickly moves across the area. The next disturbance will
then rapidly approach the Upper Great Lakes, spreading a band of -sn
w to e across Upper MI, beginning around 10z at IWD, around 11z at
CMX and around 13z at SAW. Expect conditions to quickly fall to IFR
soon after the snow begins. The snow will likely only last 3-5hrs at
each terminal and will be followed by IFR cigs and perhaps MVFR vis
in BR. Improvement to MVFR should occur at IWD early aftn and at
CMX/SAW later in the aftn.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 410 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2021
NW gales will taper off this evening as high pressure strengthens
over the region.  They will back to the southwest tonight but remain
light.  As the next system enters the area tomorrow though, SW winds
will begin to gust up to 30 kts again before shifting to the
northwest Wednesday night.  After that, they will remain
northwesterly into the weekend generally iin the 20 to 25 kt range.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...EK
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...TDUD

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Marquette MI
806 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021

MIZ001>005-009>014-084-085-011300-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Gogebic-
Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
806 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021 /706 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Light accumulating snow is expected to result in slippery roads
during the Wednesday morning commute.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

MIZ006-007-011300-
Alger-Luce-
806 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Waves of 10 and 14 feet on eastern Lake Superior this evening
may cause minor beach erosion and flooding on beaches east of
Munising.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Light accumulating snow is expected to result in slippery roads
later Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-011300-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
806 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-011300-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
806 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021 /706 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Southwest to west gales of 35 to 40 knots Wednesday night,
especially across western Lake Superior, will become northwest
gales of 35 to 40 knots on Thursday, especially across eastern
portions of the lake. See the latest Open Lake Forecast for
details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

Rolfson

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
514 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST HOUGHTON CO AIRPORT     47.17N 88.48W
11/30/2021  M46 MPH          HOUGHTON           MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KCMX HOUGHTON CO. AIRPORT.

1124 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW ROCK HARBOR LIGHTH 48.11N 88.61W
11/30/2021  M45 MPH          KEWEENAW           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION OJIM4 OJIBWAY - ISLE ROYALE.

0129 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST MUNISING                46.41N 86.65W
11/30/2021  M45 MPH          ALGER              MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KP53 MUNISING.

0900 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST COPPER HARBOR           47.47N 87.88W
11/30/2021  M44 MPH          KEWEENAW           MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KP59 COPPER HARBOR.

1223 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW KINGSFORD          45.82N 88.12W
11/30/2021  M41 MPH          DICKINSON          MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KIMT KINGSFORD.

&&

TAP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
518 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND MARAIS            46.68N 85.97W
11/30/2021  M48 MPH          LSZ251             MI   MESONET

            GLOS WEATHER STATION GRMM4 1 NNE GRAND
            MARAIS.

&&

TAP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
521 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST STANNARD ROCK LIGHTHOUS 47.18N 87.22W
11/30/2021  M52 MPH          LSZ266             MI   C-MAN STATION

            C-MAN STATION STDM4 27 ESE KEWEENAW POINT.

&&

TAP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
523 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1029 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST ROCK OF AGES LIGHTHOUSE 47.87N 89.31W
11/30/2021  M43 MPH          LSZ263             MI   C-MAN STATION

            C-MAN STATION ROAM4 2 W ROCK OF AGES.

&&

TAP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
524 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1102 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST PASSAGE ISLAND LIGHTHOU 48.22N 88.37W
11/30/2021  M49 MPH          LSZ264             MI   C-MAN STATION

            C-MAN STATION PILM4 53 NNW EAGLE HARBOR.

&&

TAP