Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
407 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Tuesday/...A shortwave trof which extends
from the north central Gulf states to across Illinois/Indiana shifts
slowly eastward and weakens through Tuesday as an amplifying upper
trof advances across the Plains. An associated surface low located
well to the north brings a cold front from the Plains into the
southeast states on Tuesday, which advances into northwestern
Mississippi by Tuesday afternoon. Water vapor satellite data shows
that much drier air has moved into the area, and when compared
with model soundings, this drier air is located mostly above 800
mb and impacts interior areas more so compared to closer to the
coast. With daytime heating, expect scattered convective
development during the rest of the afternoon, and a few strong
storms are possible into the early evening hours as the drier air
aloft aids in enhancing downdraft production. As the shortwave
trof moves slowly away from the area through the remainder of the
period, model soundings show that the drier air aloft becomes
confined to above 600 mb overnight as moistening occurs beneath
this. Have gone with chance to good chance pops on Tuesday as
scattered convective development is expected to occur with daytime
heating along with some support from a modest sea breeze and the
proximity of the approaching front in the afternoon. Highs this
afternoon will be mainly in the mid 80s then highs on Tuesday will
be mostly in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight will be in the
lower 70s inland with mid 70s at the immediate coast. A low risk
of rip currents is expected through Tuesday. /29

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...Good news for
fall weather fans out there...a cold front is on the way. A
highly amplified upper level trough will move into the Midwest and
TN River Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will send a
strong cold front into the region by early Wednesday morning with
the front forecast to clear east of the area by mid to late
Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of the front, we will maintain a chance
of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into early Wednesday
afternoon. However, rain chances will quickly end from west to
east with the frontal passage. We currently only expect an isolated
to scattered coverage of storms ahead of the front as a shortwave
that moves across the area on Tuesday will result in 925-700mb
winds becoming west to northwest ahead of the stronger upper
trough and main cold front. This will limit moisture transport and
convergence ahead of the front, reducing the overall coverage of
storms. Rain chances will end across the far eastern zones by mid
to late afternoon as guidance is in good agreement on the timing
of the frontal passage.

North to northwest winds in the wake of front will usher in cooler
and much drier air. Dewpoints will drop into the 50s by Wednesday
night and persist through Thursday night. Would not be surprised
if even some upper 40 dewpoints show up in peak afternoon mixing
on Thursday. Regardless, it will be quite the change from the long
period of mid to upper 70 dewpoints we have experienced.

Temperatures will remain mild Tuesday night ahead of the front.
Highs Wednesday will range from the mid to upper 70s across inland
SE MS with low to mid 80s east of I-65. Wednesday night will see
lows drop into the mid to upper 50s area wide, with the exception
of low 60s along the beaches. Highs Thursday will be very pleasant
in the mid to upper 70s with near 80 at the beaches. Thursday night
looks to be the coolest night of the week as high pressure settles
over the area. Lows are forecast to be in the low to mid 50s with
upper 50s closer to the immediate coast. The current forecast low
Friday morning at Mobile Regional is 53 degrees. The record low for
Friday morning at Mobile is 50 degrees. 34/JFB

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Friday Through Monday/...Dry and pleasant
conditions will persist Friday into the weekend as high pressure
persists across the region, while upper level troughing is
reinforced across the eastern states. Highs will warm into the mid
80s by the end of the weekend. Lows will gradually moderate back
into the 60s by Monday morning, but the weekend will still
provide lows in the 50s. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A small craft advisory will likely be required from as
early as Wednesday morning until late Thursday afternoon.  Small
craft exercise caution headlines will then follow through Friday
morning until the flow subsides.  No other impacts are noted except
for winds and seas higher near storms. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
102 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

FLZ203-205-201845-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
102 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Okaloosa and east central Santa Rosa Counties through 145 PM CDT...

At 102 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northeast of Roeville, or 15 miles northeast of Milton, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Baker.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3071 8696 3085 8691 3099 8660 3071 8660
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 244DEG 12KT 3081 8688

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
124 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

FLZ203-205-201915-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
124 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Okaloosa and east central Santa Rosa Counties through 215 PM CDT...

At 123 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 9 miles northeast of Roeville, or 13 miles
northeast of Milton, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
just west of Baker to Baker.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3065 8695 3079 8690 3089 8660 3064 8660
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 262DEG 12KT 3075 8687

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
244 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

FLZ205-202030-
Okaloosa Inland FL-
244 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Okaloosa County through 330 PM CDT...

At 244 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Crestview, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Crestview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3066 8668 3084 8667 3084 8639 3057 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 240DEG 13KT 3074 8657

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
323 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

ALZ060-202115-
Covington AL-
323 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Covington County through 415 PM CDT...

At 323 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 4 miles northwest of Lockhart, or 5 miles
northwest of Florala, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Florala and Lockhart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8626 3099 8647 3115 8648 3126 8619
      3100 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 234DEG 16KT 3107 8639

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
331 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

ALZ263-202115-
Mobile Central AL-
331 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Mobile
County through 415 PM CDT...

At 331 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Tanner Williams, or 11 miles northwest of
Tillmans Corner, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tillmans Corner, Tanner Williams and Mobile Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3058 8841 3075 8841 3079 8816 3058 8816
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 264DEG 11KT 3069 8832

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
421 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

ALZ057-058-060-202200-
Butler AL-Covington AL-Crenshaw AL-
421 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Butler,
southwestern Crenshaw and northwestern Covington Counties through 500
PM CDT...

At 421 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over McKenzie, or 16 miles northeast of
Evergreen, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
McKenzie and Dozier.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8670 3152 8670 3152 8677 3156 8678
      3186 8633 3144 8633
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 252DEG 12KT 3153 8670

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH