Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1248 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...A shortwave trof which extends
from the north central Gulf states to across Illinois/Indiana
shifts slowly eastward and weakens through Tuesday as an
amplifying upper trof advances across the Plains. An associated
surface low located well to the north brings a cold front from the
Plains into the southeast states on Tuesday, which advances into
northwestern Mississippi by Tuesday afternoon. Water vapor
satellite data shows that much drier air has moved into the area,
and when compared with model soundings, this drier air is located
mostly above 800 mb and impacts interior areas more so compared to
closer to the coast. With daytime heating, expect scattered
convective development during the rest of the afternoon, and a
few strong storms are possible into the early evening hours as
the drier air aloft aids in enhancing downdraft production. As the
shortwave trof moves slowly away from the area through the
remainder of the period, model soundings show that the drier air
aloft becomes confined to above 600 mb overnight as moistening
occurs beneath this. Have gone with chance to good chance pops on
Tuesday as scattered convective development is expected to occur
with daytime heating along with some support from a modest sea
breeze and the proximity of the approaching front in the
afternoon. Highs this afternoon will be mainly in the mid 80s then
highs on Tuesday will be mostly in the mid to upper 80s. Lows
tonight will be in the lower 70s inland with mid 70s at the
immediate coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through
Tuesday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Scattered showers and storms are possible this
afternoon, then dry conditions develop this evening except for
near the coast where isolated to scattered showers and storms may
develop later tonight. Isolated to potentially scattered showers
and storms then begin to develop further inland Tuesday morning. MVFR
conditions will be possible with the stronger showers and storms.
VFR conditions otherwise prevail, except for late tonight into
early Tuesday morning when IFR conditions in low ceilings and fog
may occur. Southerly winds around 5 knots this afternoon become
light and variable tonight, then a southwesterly flow around 5
knots develops Tuesday morning. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1250 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

FLZ203-201830-
Santa Rosa Inland FL-
1250 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Santa
Rosa County through 130 PM CDT...

At 1249 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles north of Roeville, or 8 miles north of Milton, moving northeast
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Santa
Rosa County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8705 3076 8707 3092 8679 3069 8679
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 235DEG 14KT 3075 8699

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH