Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
133 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...A typical late July afternoon
is setting up across the north central Gulf Coast. It will be a
hot and sticky one with afternoon heat indices climbing into the
102-107 degree range across the area.

12z analysis indicates that upper heights have lowered since yesterday
in response to the upper ridge over Texas slowing retrograding
westward. Regional forecast soundings show a precipitable water
gradient from west to east across the region, with the higher
values in the western zones (over 2") compared to around 1.8" or
slightly lower in the far eastern zones where low to mid level
northeast flow is advecting in some drier air. This northeast flow
in the eastern zones is also helping to set up a broad, weak low
level convergence zone over the middle of the forecast area.
MLCAPES are already at 1500-3000 J/kg, again, lower in the east
versus the west. While there is no appreciable upper level forcing
to speak of, the combination of low level convergence, plentiful
moisture and instability, and a developing afternoon seabreeze has
set the stage for scattered afternoon storms, which we are already
starting to see develop. Coverage could be slightly lower over
the far eastern zones where the drier air may have more of an
influence. As is typical for late July, some of the storms will be
capable of producing gusty winds over 40 mph, frequent lightning,
and torrential downpours. As always, will keep an eye on the
potential for an isolated pulse severe with the wet microburst
risk is in the moderate zone today. Convection is expected to
diminish in the early to mid evening hours with warm and muggy
conditions persisting through the night.

On Sunday, deep layer easterly flow on the periphery of the mid to
upper level ridge axis will bring drier air (PWATs only around
1.5") into eastern parts of the forecast area. This will likely
result in only a slight chance for storms across locations well
east of I-65 as the deep layer drier air will make it hard for
potential updrafts to become sustained. However, over the western
part of the area, precipitable water values will still be over
2". This moisture, along with subtle mid level height falls due
to the weakening ridge well to our west, will yield another round
of scattered to potentially numerous storms in the afternoon.

Highs tomorrow are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s, highest
along and east of I-65 where less convection is expected.
Dewpoints will be a little lower tomorrow in the eastern third of
the area, but will still be in the mid to upper 70s further east.
As a result, heat indices could reach or exceed 108 degrees in
parts of southwest Alabama and inland southeast Mississippi. A
Heat Advisory may become necessary. However, if convection
develops early enough, it could limit the duration of the higher
heat indices. We will monitor this closely. Regardless, make sure
you stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if working outdoors.
34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Predominate VFR conditions are expected through the
the next 24 hours. Main aviation concern will be diurnal
convection. Already seeing isolated to scattered convection
develop and this trend will continue through the afternoon. Storms
will diminish this evening, but scattered storms will once again
develop on Sunday afternoon, primarily along and west of I-65.
Drier air further east should limit coverage. Brief periods of
MVFR/IFR conditions possible in the stronger storms, along with
gusty winds. Otherwise, north to northeast winds become light and
variable by tonight and persist into Sunday morning. 34/JFB

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
204 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

ALZ052-261-MSZ076-241945-
Washington AL-Mobile Inland AL-Greene MS-
204 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN MOBILE...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 204 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles northwest
of Deer Park, or 12 miles northeast of Leakesville, moving south at
15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Deer Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3130 8843 3128 8831 3102 8829 3109 8855
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 010DEG 13KT 3125 8838