Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1219 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...An upper trof which extends
from Texas to the intersection of Wisconsin/Illinois/Iowa
gradually weakens while advancing slowly eastward to extend from
the lower Mississippi River valley to the Great Lakes. A series of
generally modest shortwaves move across the forecast area within
this pattern.  A surface ridge remains in place from the western
Atlantic to along the northern Gulf coast and maintains a moist
southerly flow over the forecast area. Ample deep layer moisture
remains over the region with precipitable water values mostly
ranging from 1.8-2.0 inches. An outflow boundary currently located
from southeast Mississippi into extreme southeast Louisiana is
expected to gradually weaken while continuing eastward through
much of the forecast area this afternoon into the early evening
hours. For the rest of this afternoon, the outflow boundary as
well as the series of shortwaves moving across the area will
support categorical pops west of I-65 with likely pops further to
the east. Chance to good chance pops follow for this evening, then
pops taper off to dry to slight chance pops overnight. Ahead of
the outflow boundary, MLCAPE values look to range from 1500 to as
high as 2500 J/kg, with the potential for higher values depending
on how much cloud cover limits daytime heating. Shear values
remain generally low, but model soundings also indicate mid level
dry air to enhance downdraft production. Expect that strong storms
will be possible along and ahead of the outflow boundary, with
severe storm potential contingent on whether or not the higher
instability values are achieved. For Tuesday, have continued with
likely pops as a series of shortwaves continue to move across the
area with a similar convective environment in place. Tuesday
afternoon may see some strong storms and a severe storm cannot be
ruled out. A moderate risk of rip currents continues through the
period. Lows tonight range from around 70 well inland to the mid
70s at the coast, and highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Widespread showers and storms will affect the
portion of the area west of I-65 this afternoon with numerous
showers and storms possible further to the east. Coverage of
showers and storms diminishes during the evening hours, then
isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible again
Tuesday morning. IFR to MVFR conditions will accompany the heavier
showers and storms, and MVFR conditions in patchy fog are
possible late tonight with otherwise VFR conditions expected.
South to southwest winds up to around 10 knots this afternoon
become light south to southeast tonight. A southeast flow 5 to 10
knots develops Tuesday morning. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1137 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

MSZ067-075-076-121715-
Perry MS-Greene MS-Wayne MS-
1137 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CENTRAL
PERRY...SOUTHERN WAYNE AND NORTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM
CDT...

At 1137 AM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles south of
New Augusta, or 16 miles southwest of Richton, moving northeast at 55
mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro, Richton, Clara, Beaumont, New Augusta and Buckatunna.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3120 8915 3177 8867 3163 8846 3157 8846
      3095 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1637Z 218DEG 49KT 3114 8906

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1159 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

ALZ054-121730-
Wilcox AL-
1159 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN WILCOX COUNTY UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

At 1159 AM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles east of
Magnolia, or 16 miles northwest of Camden, moving northeast at 55
mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Wilcox
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3224 8741 3224 8739 3222 8739 3222 8737
      3220 8736 3220 8733 3218 8732 3218 8731
      3198 8754 3203 8762 3213 8762 3213 8752
      3226 8752 3227 8751 3227 8744
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 218DEG 49KT 3213 8752

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1204 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

ALZ051-121730-
Choctaw AL-
1204 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

At 1204 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located over Butler,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Lisman and Pennington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8793 3228 8793 3228 8794 3230 8794
      3230 8800 3228 8801 3228 8802 3227 8802
      3226 8801 3217 8801 3198 8822 3209 8839
      3231 8821
TIME...MOT...LOC 1704Z 216DEG 17KT 3209 8827

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1222 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

ALZ052-121815-
Washington AL-
1222 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...WESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

At 1222 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southeast
of Fruitdale, or 11 miles south of Chatom, moving north at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chatom, Deer Park, Tibbie, Millry and Fruitdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3165 8809 3163 8808 3162 8807 3160 8808
      3158 8804 3119 8827 3126 8844 3170 8832
      3170 8824
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 199DEG 24KT 3131 8832

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

ALZ051-121815-
Choctaw AL-
1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

At 1224 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles east of
Crandall, or 12 miles southwest of Butler, moving northeast at 35
mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Lisman and Pennington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3230 8799 3231 8797 3226 8801 3219 8801
      3184 8840 3192 8847 3214 8844 3231 8829
TIME...MOT...LOC 1724Z 222DEG 30KT 3201 8842