Areal Flood Advisory 113, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1219 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...An upper trof which extends
from Texas to the intersection of Wisconsin/Illinois/Iowa
gradually weakens while advancing slowly eastward to extend from
the lower Mississippi River valley to the Great Lakes. A series of
generally modest shortwaves move across the forecast area within
this pattern.  A surface ridge remains in place from the western
Atlantic to along the northern Gulf coast and maintains a moist
southerly flow over the forecast area. Ample deep layer moisture
remains over the region with precipitable water values mostly
ranging from 1.8-2.0 inches. An outflow boundary currently located
from southeast Mississippi into extreme southeast Louisiana is
expected to gradually weaken while continuing eastward through
much of the forecast area this afternoon into the early evening
hours. For the rest of this afternoon, the outflow boundary as
well as the series of shortwaves moving across the area will
support categorical pops west of I-65 with likely pops further to
the east. Chance to good chance pops follow for this evening, then
pops taper off to dry to slight chance pops overnight. Ahead of
the outflow boundary, MLCAPE values look to range from 1500 to as
high as 2500 J/kg, with the potential for higher values depending
on how much cloud cover limits daytime heating. Shear values
remain generally low, but model soundings also indicate mid level
dry air to enhance downdraft production. Expect that strong storms
will be possible along and ahead of the outflow boundary, with
severe storm potential contingent on whether or not the higher
instability values are achieved. For Tuesday, have continued with
likely pops as a series of shortwaves continue to move across the
area with a similar convective environment in place. Tuesday
afternoon may see some strong storms and a severe storm cannot be
ruled out. A moderate risk of rip currents continues through the
period. Lows tonight range from around 70 well inland to the mid
70s at the coast, and highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Widespread showers and storms will affect the
portion of the area west of I-65 this afternoon with numerous
showers and storms possible further to the east. Coverage of
showers and storms diminishes during the evening hours, then
isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible again
Tuesday morning. IFR to MVFR conditions will accompany the heavier
showers and storms, and MVFR conditions in patchy fog are
possible late tonight with otherwise VFR conditions expected.
South to southwest winds up to around 10 knots this afternoon
become light south to southeast tonight. A southeast flow 5 to 10
knots develops Tuesday morning. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
135 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

ALZ058-060-121915-
Covington AL-Crenshaw AL-
135 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN CRENSHAW AND NORTHEASTERN COVINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 215
PM CDT...

At 133 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Opp, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Opp and Brantley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3153 8616 3153 8620 3126 8619 3119 8625
      3127 8644 3166 8626 3163 8618 3162 8618
      3161 8614 3154 8614
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 207DEG 20KT 3130 8631

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
135 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

ALZ261-MSZ079-121915-
Mobile Inland AL-George MS-
135 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN MOBILE AND EASTERN GEORGE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 135 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest
of Wilmer, or 9 miles east of Lucedale, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Citronelle, Chunchula and Gulfcrest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3094 8859 3100 8849 3100 8843 3103 8843
      3115 8823 3114 8812 3096 8800 3078 8851
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 240DEG 20KT 3091 8843

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
155 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

ALZ053>055-121945-
Clarke AL-Wilcox AL-Monroe AL-
155 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...NORTH
CENTRAL MONROE...EASTERN CLARKE AND SOUTH CENTRAL WILCOX COUNTIES
UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 154 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 11 miles east of
Whatley, or 13 miles northwest of Monroeville, moving northeast at 30
mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Camden, Beatrice and Vredenburgh.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3147 8744 3163 8765 3203 8734 3183 8706
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 218DEG 25KT 3163 8751

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
157 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

ALZ053-055-261-262-121945-
Clarke AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Monroe AL-Mobile Inland AL-
157 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN MONROE...NORTHEASTERN MOBILE...NORTHWESTERN BALDWIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 156 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Calvert, or 20 miles east of Citronelle, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Monroe, northeastern Mobile, northwestern Baldwin and southeastern
Clarke Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3142 8747 3104 8794 3113 8807 3114 8806
      3114 8802 3117 8799 3116 8796 3116 8794
      3121 8795 3123 8793 3126 8797 3127 8795
      3128 8796 3134 8791 3132 8791 3137 8789
      3159 8772
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 218DEG 25KT 3119 8790

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
217 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

ALZ261>263-122000-
Baldwin Inland AL-Mobile Central AL-Mobile Inland AL-
217 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHEASTERN MOBILE AND WEST CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM
CDT...

At 217 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles southeast
of Chunchula, or 5 miles west of Satsuma, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Saraland, Satsuma, Creola, Chunchula, Axis, Semmes, I65 And AL 158,
Movico and I65 And AL 225.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3072 8825 3088 8830 3111 8797 3088 8781
      3084 8791 3087 8789 3090 8789 3092 8791
      3088 8790 3087 8790 3084 8792 3083 8794
      3084 8794 3083 8795 3081 8799
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 238DEG 13KT 3087 8815

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
223 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

ALZ054>057-059-262-122015-
Wilcox AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Monroe AL-Conecuh AL-Butler AL-
Escambia AL-
223 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...NORTHWESTERN BUTLER...MONROE...NORTH CENTRAL BALDWIN...
NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA...SOUTHEASTERN WILCOX AND CENTRAL CONECUH
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 223 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles southwest of Beatrice to Poarch Creek
Reservation, and moving northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Monroeville, Frisco City, McCullough, Peterman, Uriah, Excel,
Beatrice, Vredenburgh, Repton, Pine Apple, I65 And CR 1, I65 And AL
113, I65 And AL 21 and Poarch Creek Reservation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3196 8679 3110 8715 3101 8774 3145 8757
      3179 8746 3197 8686
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 245DEG 21KT 3170 8729 3110 8756