Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
102 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...An upper trof over the eastern
portions of the southern and central Plains continues on a gradual
weakening trend along with a slow northeastward movement through
Tuesday. An upper ridge axis oriented just off the East Coast into
the extreme eastern Gulf drifts westward in response, becoming
oriented from the coast of the Carolinas across the northern
Florida peninsula into the central Gulf. A surface ridge remains
in place from the western Atlantic to generally along the northern
Gulf coast and maintains a southerly flow over the forecast area
through Tuesday. Precipitable water values mostly range from
1.6-1.8 inches through the period. Expect scattered to potentially
numerous showers and storms during the rest of the day, with
coverage dropping off quickly this evening with the loss of
daytime heating.  A sea breeze along with a continuing series of
modest shortwaves moving across the region look to support
scattered to numerous showers and storms developing through the
day on Tuesday, with the better coverage expected mainly over
interior areas. Model soundings show some drier air shifting
westward across the northeastern Gulf and portions of the coastal
counties on Tuesday, likely the result of subsidence effects
associated with the upper ridge. It's possible that this may
reduce pops further than the chance pops currently in the forecast
for the afternoon hours and will continue to monitor. May see some
strong storms develop this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon along
with locally heavy rains due to slow storm movement, but severe
storm development is not expected. Lows tonight range from around
70 well inland to the mid 70s at the coast. Highs on Tuesday will
be in the mid to upper 80s. Based on beach reports, have continued
with a high risk of rip currents along the western Florida
panhandle beaches through the tonight, while a moderate risk of
rip currents is otherwise expected through Tuesday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Scattered to potentially numerous showers and
storms will affect the area this afternoon, then coverage
diminishes this evening. Showers and storms redevelop Tuesday
morning. MVFR to VFR ceilings are expected through the period.
Southeasterly winds 5 to 10 knots this afternoon diminish tonight
then increase to 5 to 10 knots Tuesday morning. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

ALZ056-060-071815-
Conecuh AL-Covington AL-
1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN CONECUH AND WESTERN COVINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM
CDT...

At 1226 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 13 miles
southwest of Andalusia, moving north at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
River Falls, Red Level and Gantt.

LAT...LON 3110 8657 3111 8670 3119 8670 3118 8673
      3120 8674 3119 8675 3118 8677 3119 8676
      3120 8677 3122 8677 3122 8676 3123 8677
      3146 8677 3143 8646
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 188DEG 13KT 3119 8666

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
218 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

ALZ060-072000-
Covington AL-
218 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHERN COVINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 217 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 12 miles northwest
of Laurel Hill, or 16 miles southwest of Andalusia, moving northeast
at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Covington
County.

LAT...LON 3099 8647 3099 8651 3100 8669 3100 8670
      3109 8670 3136 8659 3120 8629
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 219DEG 13KT 3109 8660