Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
653 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...VFR to MVFR conditions can be expected through the
period. Showers and thunderstorms will again develop late this
morning and continue through the afternoon hours with reduced
ceilings and visibility. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Tuesday/...An upper level trough
continues to unwind and eject northeast across the south-central and
central Plains states through tonight. Surface ridging remains over
the Atlantic stretching west into the southeastern U.S. through
Monday. In tandem with the upper level trough, deep layer moist,
southerly flow is present setting the stage for heavy rainfall with
isolated thunderstorms southeast of I-65 overnight.
The Flash Flood Watch for southwestern AL has been cancelled.

Once all of the convection is out of the way late tonight, we
anticipate another round of shower and thunderstorm activity mid
Monday morning into the evening hours across the region. This
activity should should not pose as significant of a flash flooding
threat. With loss of daytime heating tomorrow evening, expect
convective coverage to diminish after sunset.

Temperatures bounce back a bit today into the generally into the
middle 80's for most locations. Lows tonight will drop into the
lower to perhaps middle 70's. A HIGH risk of rip currents will
remain in place through tonight, followed by a MODERATE risk
through the remainder of the short term period. MM/25 /22

SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Wednesday night/...Through mid
week, an upper trough embedded in an upper ridge over the
central/eastern Conus shifts from over the Mississippi River
eastward, becoming more positively tilted due to a more active upper
pattern over the northern Conus. Guidance continues to advertise a
drier airmass moving over the Southeast and the forecast area proper
with the upper ridge. Guidance is consistent also in a surface ridge
stretching west over the northern Gulf of Mexico, shifting low level
flow to more southwesterly, and with the shifting upper level
trough, mid level flow.

With the decrease in available moisture over the Southeast, rain
chances decrease and shift north of the forecast area. Add in
upper subsidence from the upper ridge combining with better
daytime heating, high temperatures above seasonal norms are
expected, topping out in the upper 80s to mid 90s Wednesday and
Thursday. Low temperatures will see a bit of a downtick, falling
from 70 to 75 degree range Tuesday night to upper 60s to low 70s
Thursday night. /16

EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...A subtle shortwave slides
toward the region on Thursday as an upper level ridge remains parked
over the Southern Plains and Mexico and a weak upper low remains
over the western Gulf. Several shortwaves rotate around the upper
ridge to our west through the extended forecast, but the timing and
placement of these these features is tough in this timeframe. Down
at the surface, the area remains on the western periphery of a ridge
over the western Atlantic on Thursday. This surface ridge builds
west into the Gulf through the weekend, which allows the southerly
surface winds to eventually turn more easterly. In this weak flow
pattern, expect the return of scattered showers and storms each day.
Temperatures remain toasty for the end of the work week and weekend.
Highs are forecast to top out in the mid to low 90s each afternoon
with mid to upper 80s at the beaches due to the sea breeze.
Overnight lows only dip into the upper 60s to low 70s inland with
mid 70s at the beaches. Heat stress concerns start to arise as we
head into the weekend as heat indices may begin to creep into the
100s across inland areas. 07/mb

MARINE...A light to moderate southerly flow will prevail through the
middle of the week. Seas will be 3 to 4 feet through Wednesday then
gradually subside. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

ALZ056-060-071815-
Conecuh AL-Covington AL-
1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN CONECUH AND WESTERN COVINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM
CDT...

At 1226 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 13 miles
southwest of Andalusia, moving north at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
River Falls, Red Level and Gantt.

LAT...LON 3110 8657 3111 8670 3119 8670 3118 8673
      3120 8674 3119 8675 3118 8677 3119 8676
      3120 8677 3122 8677 3122 8676 3123 8677
      3146 8677 3143 8646
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 188DEG 13KT 3119 8666