Coastal Flood Advisory 3, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
133 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...Tranquil weather will continue
tonight but a storm is brewing on the horizon. Just wanted to note
that at the time of writing this discussion the dewpoint at the
office was 58 degrees. Step outside and remember this moment when
our dewpoint is 72 this time tomorrow.

High pressure will remain in place through tonight leading to one
last night of "cooler" and lest sticky conditions but that will
quickly change as the area of low pressure located over the
southern Gulf will continue its steady march northward towards the
Louisiana coast on Friday. The development and progression of
this system will be rather interesting to watch as models are
hinting that it might be more subtropical than fully tropical
leading to hybrid structures. One of these signs is the presence
of what appears to be a warm front or at least surface trough
associated with the stalled boundary that moved through the other
day and has been loitering in the Gulf. Model guidance has
certainly trended to a quicker solution which means that this
feature is expected to approach our coast much quicker on Friday.
North of this advancing boundary showers and thunderstorms will be
possible over the Gulf Waters late tonight then lifting to then
I-10 corridor through the afternoon on Friday. PWATS will be on
the rise throughout the period starting the day around 1.5 inches
and then increase to 2 to 2.5 inches by late afternoon and
evening. Pockets of moderate to potentially heavy rainfall will be
possible along the coast and will set the stage for potentially a
multi- day flash flooding threat. A flash flood watch will likely
be issued with this afternoons package.

Along with the increase in heavy rainfall potential we do expect
winds to increase slowly throughout the day as the system
approaches the coast and the surface pressure gradient
strengthens. This will lead to an increase in coastal impacts
including a HIGH risk of rip currents. High surf will begin to
move into the area with swell heights beginning to approach 5 to 7
feet along the area beaches. Minor beach erosion and overwash of
near beach roadways along Ft. Morgan, Ft Pickens, and Dauphin
Island will be possible during the afternoon.

Tonight will be the last cool night for a few days with lows
dropping into the 60s. Highs on Friday will be "cooler" with
highs along and south of highway 84 in the low to mid 80s and near
90 north of highway 84. This will be the result of increasing
cloud cover and rainfall. BB/03

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...VFR conditions will continue today with a light
easterly wind becoming southeasterly this afternoon and evening. A
few high clouds will continue to move in from the south with no
impacts to aviation expected. Tonight, some showers over the Gulf
waters will slowly move northward and eventually move over the
I-10 corridor by mid-morning Friday. Southerly winds will also
increase to around 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots along the
coast. BB/03

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through late Sunday
     night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 6 AM CDT Monday for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through late Sunday
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 6 AM CDT Monday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob