Areal Flood Advisory 95, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1148 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...Scattered to numerous showers and storms develop
overnight over the coastal counties with isolated to scattered
showers and storms possible further inland. The coverage of
showers and storms becomes numerous to widespread on Tuesday. IFR
to MVFR conditions will accompany the showers and storms while
otherwise mainly VFR conditions are expected. Light southeast
winds overnight increase to 5 to 10 knots on Tuesday. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 952 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...An upper level weakness along
much of the northern Gulf coast gradually becomes oriented from
northern Alabama into central Louisiana through Wednesday in
response to Tropical Storm Elsa progressing northward across the
far eastern Gulf and later into Georgia. Please see the National
Hurricane Center for the latest information on Elsa. Abundant deep
layer moisture will be in place over the forecast area through
the period with precipitable water values ranging up to 2.0-2.3
inches. SBCAPE values look to increase to 1500-2000 J/kg both
Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. This moist and unstable
environment along with a combination of the presence of the upper
level weakness and modest low level convergence associated with
the peripheral circulation of Elsa will support categorical pops
across the area on Tuesday. A similar pattern remains in place on
Wednesday, although based on the slow movement of the upper level
weakness, think that categorical pops are supported mainly along
and north of the I-65 while further to the east will have likely
pops. Precipitation loading may initiate some strong downdrafts
each day, and given the abundant deep layer moisture there
continues to be the potential for locally heavy rainfall to lead
to flooding issues. Lows tonight and Tuesday night range from
around 70 well inland to the mid 70s at the immediate coast. Highs
on Tuesday will be mostly in the mid 80s, then on Wednesday
similar temperatures are expected although eastern portions of the
area will see some upper 80s. A high risk of rip currents remains
in effect until midnight after which a moderate risk of rip
currents follows through Tuesday. A high risk of rip currents
develops Tuesday night (and continues through Thursday) as long
period swell associated with Elsa begins to affect beach areas.
/29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for ALZ265-266.

     High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday evening through Thursday
     evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday evening through Thursday
     evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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