Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
306 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

.SHORT TERM...

An upper level low has moved northwest and continues to exit the
region and into the Gulf of Mexico. Rain has diminished across the
area with a few lingering showers and storms across the area. The
atmosphere has been pretty worked over and additional development
will depend on how much recovery can occur. Looking at current vis
satellite some clearing is occurring, this will allow for some
recovery with instability and diurnal heating. Lingering moisture
across the area will allow for some additional shower and
thunderstorm development, mainly focused over the interior and west
coast with the prevailing easterly breeze.

As we move into Friday, high pressure will remain across the region
with breezy easterly winds. A more typical summertime pattern for
Friday with seabreeze driven showers and thunderstorms. Greatest
coverage will be over the Atlantic and east coast in the morning and
afternoon before shifting towards the interior and gulf coast in the
afternoon and evening.

High temperatures will be seasonable today around 90 degrees, with
temperatures tomorrow in the low to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...

Friday Night through Sunday

Tropical Depression Nine is currently located in the Carribean Sea,
about 300 miles south of Cuba. The official forecast per the
National Hurricane Center has this system intensifying into a
Tropical Storm, and eventually a Hurricane by this weekend. Current
guidance keeps this system and associated impacts offshore to the
west of South Florida and away from the local Gulf waters for now.
With that said, a subtle eastward shift in the track could result in
a substantial QPF totals and possibly tropical storm force winds,
particularly for the western half of the region. There is a
noticeable QPF gradient per WPC's latest guidance, therefore
interested parties should continue to monitor the progression and
evolution of TD 9 through this weekend.

Monday through Thursday

Weak high pressure is forecast to build into the Florida peninsula
following the northward progression of TD 9. This will allow for
modest, easterly boundary layer flow to become realized over the
region, eventually veering towards the south/southeast by mid week
next week. This should allow for showers and thunderstorms to
develop along the east coast in the morning, with a gradual
propagation towards the interior/Gulf coast by the afternoon/evening
hours. Impacts should be limited to localized flooding and locally
enhanced wind gusts.

Temperatures will be muggy, as to be expected this time of year.
Maximum temperatures will be in the upper 80s/lower 90s along the
coastlines, and low/mid 90s elsewhere. Dewpoints in the mid/upper
70s will allow for apparent temperatures to exceed 100, and
possibly 105 in a few locations through the extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Upper level low is moving out of the region with lingering showers
and storms possible. However, drier air is working into the region
with most showers and storms over the interior and west coast this
afternoon. Models depict some moisture moving into the east coast
early tomorrow morning. Therefore, have included VCSH for the east
coast terminals. Easterly winds will persist throughout the
period.

&&

.MARINE...High pressure with breezy easterly winds with at least
exercise caution criteria over the local waters. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible across the waters each day.

&&

.BEACHES...There is a high rip current risk along the east coast
beaches of South Florida due to breezy easterly winds. An elevated
rip current risk will remain across the region into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  89  81  90 /  30  60  30  60
West Kendall     79  90  79  91 /  30  60  40  60
Opa-Locka        79  90  80  91 /  30  60  30  60
Homestead        79  89  78  89 /  30  50  40  60
Fort Lauderdale  80  89  81  89 /  40  70  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  80  88  81  89 /  40  70  30  60
Pembroke Pines   79  89  79  90 /  30  60  30  60
West Palm Beach  77  89  78  90 /  40  70  40  70
Boca Raton       79  88  80  89 /  40  70  30  60
Naples           77  91  77  91 /  20  60  40  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Kelly
Friday Night through Thursday...Bhatti

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
723 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
262330-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
723 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents along the Atlantic
beaches of South Florida.

Flooding: localized flooding possible over the eat coast metro
areas this morning.

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms are forecast for today,
with locally gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall
possible.

Wind: Locally gusty winds will be possible with the stronger showers
and thunderstorms across all of South Florida, including the local
waters.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts will be possible with showers and storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Threat for thunderstorm impacts will continue through the rest of
the forecast period. main impacts include locally gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind and flooding to the
National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
311 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

FLZ063-066-262015-
Hendry FL-Glades FL-
311 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Hendry and
Glades Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 310 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 13 miles south of
Buckhead Ridge to Devils Garden. Movement was northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Clewiston, Labelle, Moore Haven, Lakeport, Montura, Palmdale, Port La
Belle, Brighton Seminole Reservation, Devils Garden, Ortona, Muse,
Indian Prairie Canal Mouth, Lake Hicpochee and Harlem.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes or
waterspouts. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2703 8086 2700 8087 2695 8100 2689 8100
      2688 8091 2682 8085 2653 8106 2675 8157
      2702 8156 2703 8153 2703 8134 2704 8133
      2703 8133 2703 8127 2712 8127 2712 8117
      2720 8117 2721 8115 2721 8112
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 124DEG 18KT 2694 8086 2662 8111

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BAXTER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
540 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

FLZ069-070-262215-
Coastal Collier County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
540 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Collier
County through 615 PM EDT...

At 540 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm near Orangetree, or 8 miles east of Bonita
Springs, moving west at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Golden Gate Estates, Naples Park, Orangetree, Big Corkscrew Island,
North Naples, Pelican Bay, Corkscrew Swamp Sanctuary and Quail Creek
Estate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2633 8184 2633 8182 2632 8182 2632 8166
      2642 8166 2642 8157 2649 8156 2649 8152
      2630 8149 2622 8185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 095DEG 18KT 2636 8164

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SB