Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
308 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Short term (Today through Friday)...

Latest satellite imagery and model analyses shows a mid-upper level
trough now moving across the area. Radar has been very busy during
the early morning hours with several lines of strong storms racing
through Palm Beach and Broward counties. Ground obs showed
widespread wind gusts in the 40-45 mph range all across coastal
locations of Palm Beach county.

Temperatures aloft continue to cool down with 00Z MFL sounding
showing 500 mb temps around -6C, along with PWATs of2.07 inches.
Model soundings show well over 2 inches for the rest of today. Model
lapse rates, moisture depth and low level instability suggest very
favorable atmospheric conditions for widespread showers to
develop through the rest of this morning. Coastal convergence will
favor the east coast, where potential for localized flooding is
possible, mainly through sunrise. There is also the threat for
strong gusty wind and frequent lightning. A few funnel clouds that
could become tornadic are also a possibility with the strongest
cells.

Mainly NBM was used for POPs/Wx, but with some blending towards the
globals to better reflect the transitions between this afternoon and
Friday. That said, all models show better agreement in the final
solution for the aforementioned trough, which is expected to move
into the Gulf later today, with rain chances diminish from east to
west. But enough moisture seems to linger on Friday to justify
keeping POps at high-end scattered to numerous, mainly in the
50-60 percent range.

Despite the increased cloud cover, temperatures should remain on the
warm side during the short term with most areas reaching the lower
90s in the afternoon.

Long Term (Friday Night through Wednesday):

Models begin the long term by bringing slightly more drier air at
the mid levels in the wake of a departing upper level impulse.
However, as the ridge strengthens at the sfc and deeper easterly
flow establishes, moisture advection will take place during the
weekend. Therefore, model PWATs seem to not drop from the 2 inch
mark, which will continue to support scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms.

The sfc high pressure will keep robust east/southeasterly flow
across the area, which will result in a more typical SoFlo seasonal
afternoon pattern of storms favoring interior and west coast
areas. But showers and storms could affect the east coast as well,
but with better chances early in the afternoon. Models suggest
that this pattern will likely continue through early next week
with a drying trend towards the end of the long term period.

Temperatures are expected to remain hot with afternoon highs in the
low to mid 90s, along with heat index values into the triple digits
each afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

A mid-upper level disturbance is moving across the area, with
pressure gradient beginning to relax this morning. This will
allow for wind speeds to drop below advisory criteria late this
morning. This wind threat is outside of convection which could
also be stout with gusts above 40 knots possible. Conditions
should begin to improve this afternoon as the wind subsides.

&&

.BEACHES...
There is a high rip current risk along the east coast beaches of
South Florida due to breezy/gusty easterly winds. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will gradually increase, especially across the
east coast beaches, through today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  80  90  80 /  30  30  60  40
West Kendall     91  79  91  79 /  40  30  60  40
Opa-Locka        91  79  90  79 /  30  30  60  30
Homestead        89  79  89  78 /  30  30  50  40
Fort Lauderdale  89  80  89  80 /  30  40  70  30
N Ft Lauderdale  89  80  89  80 /  30  40  70  30
Pembroke Pines   90  79  89  79 /  30  30  60  30
West Palm Beach  90  78  89  78 /  40  40  70  40
Boca Raton       89  79  89  80 /  30  40  70  40
Naples           92  77  91  77 /  60  20  60  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

Today through Friday and Aviation/Marine...AR
Friday Night through Wednesday...AR

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
820 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
261200-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
820 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...High Risk Of Rip Currents East Coast Beaches Of South Florida...
...Scattered Storms Are Expected Tonight With Gusty Winds...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents along the Atlantic
beaches of South Florida.

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms are forecast for tonight,
with locally gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall
possible.

Wind: Sustained winds of 20 knots or greater with higher gusts are
forecast across portions of the Atlantic and Gulf waters tonight with
a Small Craft Advisory in effect. Locally gusty winds will be
possible with the stronger showers and thunderstorms especially over
the metro areas of South Florida.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts will be possible with showers and storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Hazardous marine and beach conditions will continue through at least
Thursday due to enhanced easterly winds. A few strong storms will be
possible across the area as a mid-level disturbance moves through the
region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind and flooding to the
National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Baxter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
1242 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

FLZ067-068-071-072-168-172-260515-
Inland Broward County FL-Coastal Broward County FL-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-Metro Palm Beach County FL-
1242 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Broward and
southeastern Palm Beach Counties through 115 AM EDT...

At 1242 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms capable of producing a funnel cloud along a line
extending from Gun Club Estates to Davie. Movement was west at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Lauderdale, Pembroke Pines, Hollywood, Coral Springs, West Palm
Beach, Pompano Beach, Davie, Plantation, Sunrise, Boca Raton,
Deerfield Beach, Boynton Beach, Delray Beach, Tamarac, Wellington,
Margate, Palm Beach Gardens, Lake Worth, Riviera Beach and Lighthouse
Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2682 8003 2639 8003 2600 8006 2600 8060
      2681 8040
TIME...MOT...LOC 0442Z 088DEG 18KT 2666 8012 2607 8028

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Weinman

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
127 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

FLZ067-068-071-168-260630-
Inland Broward County FL-Coastal Palm Beach County FL-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-Metro Palm Beach County FL-
127 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Broward and
Palm Beach Counties through 230 AM EDT...

At 127 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms capable of producing a funnel cloud along a line
extending from Wellington to 10 miles west of Loxahatchee NWR to near
Intersection Alligator Alley And Miami Canal. Movement was west at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
West Palm Beach, Boynton Beach, Delray Beach, Wellington, Palm Beach
Gardens, Lake Worth, Riviera Beach, Belle Glade, Palm Beach, Pahokee,
South Bay, Ocean Ridge, Canal Point, Lake Harbor, Greenacres, Royal
Palm Beach, Palm Springs, Lantana, Atlantis and Haverhill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2675 8003 2650 8003 2637 8034 2608 8057
      2617 8086 2662 8086 2688 8065 2685 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 0527Z 086DEG 22KT 2666 8026 2646 8051 2619 8059

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Weinman

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
158 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

FLZ067-068-168-260630-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Palm Beach County FL-
158 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Palm
Beach County through 230 AM EDT...

At 158 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms capable of producing a funnel cloud along a line
extending from Juno Beach to Palm Beach Gardens. Movement was west at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
West Palm Beach, Jupiter, Palm Beach Gardens, Riviera Beach, Palm
Beach, Tequesta, Juno Beach, North Palm Beach, Lake Park, Port Of
Palm Beach, North County Airport, Juno Ridge, The Acreage, Mangonia
Park, Philo Farms, Fau North Campus, Limestone Creek, Caloosa and
Jupiter Farms.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2685 8003 2674 8003 2684 8034 2696 8036
      2696 8014 2697 8014 2697 8005
TIME...MOT...LOC 0558Z 105DEG 18KT 2690 8005 2684 8017

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Weinman

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
223 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

FLZ067-068-168-260730-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Palm Beach County FL-
223 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Palm Beach
County through 330 AM EDT...

At 223 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms capable of producing a funnel cloud along a line
extending from 6 miles north of North County Airport to near Belle
Glade. Movement was west at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
West Palm Beach, Jupiter, Palm Beach Gardens, Riviera Beach, Belle
Glade, Pahokee, Tequesta, South Bay, Juno Beach, Canal Point, Royal
Palm Beach, North Palm Beach, Lake Park, Belle Glade Camp, North
County Airport, Lion Country Safari Park, Juno Ridge, The Acreage,
Fremd Village-Padgett Island and Loxahatchee Groves.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. Theis type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your sighting to the
National Weather Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2678 8003 2662 8072 2677 8088 2682 8085
      2679 8082 2691 8070 2700 8068 2700 8062
      2696 8061 2696 8014 2697 8014 2697 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 0623Z 107DEG 23KT 2695 8024 2671 8063

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Weinman

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
313 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

FLZ073-075-174-260800-
Mainland Monroe FL-Far South Miami-Dade County FL-Inland Miami-
Dade County FL-
313 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Mainland
Monroe and central Miami-Dade Counties through 400 AM EDT...

At 313 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms capable of producing a landspout along a line
extending from near Pa-Hay-
Okee Overlook to 8 miles west of Everglades National Park. Movement
was northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Everglades National Park and Pa-Hay-Okee Overlook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. Theis type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your sighting to the
National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2558 8065 2560 8110 2536 8105 2534 8072
TIME...MOT...LOC 0713Z 141DEG 11KT 2542 8073 2545 8101

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Weinman

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
325 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

FLZ075-174-260815-
Mainland Monroe FL-Far South Miami-Dade County FL-
325 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Mainland
Monroe and southern Miami-Dade Counties through 415 AM EDT...

At 325 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms capable of producing a funnel cloud along a line
extending from near Rock Harbor to 12 miles south of Royal Palm
Ranger to 8 miles south of Mahogany Hammock. Movement was northwest
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mahogany Hammock and Everglades National Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Funnel clouds can touch down and produce waterspouts. Although
typically weak and short lived, a landfalling waterspout can cause
property damage and serious injury.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2515 8077 2518 8080 2517 8090 2530 8099
      2536 8094 2538 8048 2523 8047 2520 8054
      2521 8057 2523 8052 2524 8057 2518 8061
      2518 8062 2519 8061 2519 8065 2514 8065
      2514 8067 2515 8066 2514 8078
TIME...MOT...LOC 0725Z 152DEG 13KT 2513 8051 2522 8066 2522 8080

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Weinman