Special Marine Warning 211, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
249 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

.SHORT TERM...
As deep-layer moisture continues to overspread South Florida in
association with Elsa, the thermodynamic environment will become
increasingly favorable for heavy-rainfall-producing convection --
owing to tall skinny CAPE profiles, deep warm cloud layers, and
repeated rounds of showers and storms. The threat of localized flash
flooding from heavy rainfall will be greatest across metro areas
that experience repeated rounds of showers and storms, and this
seems most likely across the Gulf Coast of South Florida initially,
with the threat gradually increasing across the east coast metros
overnight owing to coastal convergence and related mesoscale ascent.

In addition, the risk of a couple tornadoes will gradually increase
across South Florida later today into tomorrow, and this risk
appears greatest across the southern and western portions of South
Florida -- where the strongest 850-mb flow will support enlarged low-
level hodographs and enhanced effective-layer storm relative
helicity supportive of isolated rotating updrafts.

As Elsa continues to track closer here is the breakdown of impacts
across South Florida:

*Flooding - Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall from showers and
thunderstorms could result in localized flash flooding across South
Florida, especially along the coastal/metro areas. Initially, this
risk will be greatest across coastal/metro Collier County, with the
risk increasing for the east coast metros during the
overnight/morning hours. With the greatest risk and higher
confidence of flash flooding being over the Southwest coast, a Flood
Watch is in effect for Collier County.

*Storm Surge - Up to 3 feet above ground level possible for portions
of coastal Mainland and Monroe and Collier Counties. This may result
in the potential for Coastal Flood Advisory for the Southwest
Florida coast.

*Wind - Sustained tropical storm force winds will be possible,
particularly along the Gulf coast and the Gulf waters. Tropical
Storm force wind gusts will be possible with squalls and rainbands
ahead of the system.

*Tornadoes - A few tornadoes will be possible with showers and
storms, with the threat gradually increasing as low-level wind
fields continue to strengthen across South Florida.

.LONG TERM...
As Elsa departs from the region, high pressure will build as Elsa
moves northward away front the area. Southerly winds will continue
to allow moisture in the wake of Elsa. Sea breeze driven convection
each afternoon. There will be the potential for frequent lightning
strikes, heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Flooding potential will be
dependent on the rainfall received from Elsa across the area. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s and low 90s to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
After a lull in convection this morning scattered showers and
thunderstorms have develop to the east of APF/Naples early this
afternoon. The next band of precipitation from Elsa is also
approaching from the south and is currently moving through the
Keys. This should arrive at TMB/MIA/OPF between 18z and 19z and
continue to move north through the afternoon. Have added a TEMPO
group at all terminals to reflect this precipitation through about
23z this afternoon. Heavier rain showers and thunderstorms will
temporarily drop visibility to MVFR and possibly IFR levels. Some
sort term AMDs may be needed.

Beyond this afternoon confidence in the timing of convection
decreases as higher resolution models differ on the timing and
placement of the next band of convection from Elsa late tonight
and then what to do with the storm once it moves closer to
Florida. Have gone with the consensus and added another TEMPO
group from around 03z to 07z tonight as the HRRR and other models
show convection along the east coast during those hours. Given
the uncertainty in specifics, but the high likelihood of
precipitation have just broad brushed TSRA beginning at 12z
Tuesday morning for all of the South Florida terminals. Later TAF
packages can further refine the timing. Winds will generally be
out of the south and southeast and begin to get gusty later on
today and into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions are deteriorating across the South Florida
waters as outer rainbands and squalls begin to move towards the
region. Conditions will become especially dangerous over the Gulf
waters due to rough seas and swell associated with the storm's inner
core.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Tropical Storm Elsa will bring periods of heavy rainfall to the
region early this week. Storm total amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
possible, with isolated heavier amounts. The greatest heavy rain
potential should be across Southwest Florida and the Gulf coast
region starting later today into tonight. With the greatest threat
and higher confidence of rainfall over Southwest Florida a Flood
Watch has been issued for Collier County

&&

.BEACHES...
There is a high risk of rip currents for Miami-Dade and Broward
county beaches today. The risk will likely be expanded
to include the rest of Atlantic beaches and the Gulf coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  86  79  90 /  60  70  30  40
West Kendall     77  86  78  91 /  60  70  30  40
Opa-Locka        77  86  78  90 /  50  70  30  40
Homestead        77  86  78  89 /  60  60  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  78  86  78  89 /  50  60  30  40
N Ft Lauderdale  78  86  78  89 /  50  70  30  40
Pembroke Pines   77  86  77  89 /  50  70  30  40
West Palm Beach  78  86  78  89 /  50  60  40  50
Boca Raton       78  87  78  89 /  50  60  30  40
Naples           76  85  77  90 /  70  80  50  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for FLZ069-070.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ069-075.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ630-651-671.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Kelly/Weinman
Tuesday Night through Monday...Kelly

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
1130 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
060330-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1130 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

...Tropical Storm Elsa To Impact The Region with Multiple Hazards...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Tropical Storm Elsa will impact the region. Gusty winds, heavy rains,
coastal flooding and a few tornadoes are possible, especially
overnight tonight.

Hazardous marine and beach conditions are expected with a high rip
current risk.

Please reference the Hurricane Local Statement from NWS Miami for
additional detailed information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Impact from Elsa will likely continue through mid-week. Residents
and visitors are urged to monitor updates to the forecast for Elsa,
and ensure that Hurricane preparedness plans are in place.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, however, individual spotters
are encouraged to report high wind and flooding to the National
Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
442 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNE LAUDERDALE LAKES  26.20N 80.18W
07/05/2021  M46 MPH          BROWARD            FL   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KFXE FT LAUDERD EXEC REPORTED A
            WIND GUST OF 46MPH AT 4:26PM. ELEVATION IS
            10 FEET.

&&

HADI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
443 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N BOCA RATON          26.38N 80.10W
07/05/2021  M49 MPH          PALM BEACH         FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 0430W 1.1 N BOCA RATON
            (WEATHERSTEM) REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 49MPH
            AT 4:30PM. ELEVATION IS 13 FEET.

&&

HADI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
457 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

FLZ067-068-071-072-168-172-052200-
Inland Broward County FL-Coastal Broward County FL-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-Metro Palm Beach County FL-
457 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BROWARD AND SOUTHERN PALM BEACH
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

* At 457 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles
  southeast of Holey Land Wildlife Refuge to near Highland Beach.
  Movement was north at 20 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Fort Lauderdale, Hollywood, Coral Springs, Pompano Beach, Davie,
  Plantation, Sunrise, Boca Raton, Deerfield Beach, Tamarac, Margate,
  Lighthouse Point, Lauderdale-By-The-Sea, Highland Beach,
  Lauderhill, Weston, Coconut Creek, Oakland Park, North Lauderdale
  and Lauderdale Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2641 8003 2609 8006 2609 8088 2644 8088
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 176DEG 19KT 2634 8066 2635 8001

Weinman

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
539 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 ESE LAKE WORTH        26.61N 80.03W
07/05/2021  M43 MPH          AMZ650             FL   BUOY

            BUOY STATION LKWF1 LAKE WORTH PIER, FL
            REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 43MPH AT 5:06PM.
            ELEVATION IS 43MPH.

&&

HADI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
552 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N JUNO BEACH          26.89N 80.06W
07/05/2021  M49 MPH          AMZ650             FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION XJUP JUNO BEACH PIER
            REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 49MPH AT 5:30PM.
            ELEVATION IS 20 FEET.

&&

HADI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
621 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

FLZ063-066-052300-
Hendry FL-Glades FL-
621 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL HENDRY AND GLADES
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

* At 620 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Lakeport, moving northwest at
  20 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Moore Haven, Lakeport, Buckhead Ridge, Palmdale, Brighton Seminole
  Reservation, Ortona, Indian Prairie Canal Mouth and Lake Hicpochee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2719 8091 2717 8090 2717 8088 2714 8087
      2719 8084 2717 8080 2698 8091 2695 8100
      2689 8100 2688 8097 2671 8107 2685 8141
      2703 8156 2704 8134 2703 8127 2712 8127
      2712 8117 2721 8117 2721 8094
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 136DEG 20KT 2702 8112

CWC