Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1216 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.UPDATE...
See the 18z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1057 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021/

UPDATE...

Remnants of Danny are flaring up across Alabama at this time. The
CAMS are having a hard time initializing with what is currently
going on. Will base update on the 12Z NSSL WRF and will update
POPS to bump them up across North Mississippi and West Tennessee.
Left high temperatures as is for now, but did bump up cloud cover
as well. Some of the storms this afternoon could become strong
possibly severe during the peak heating hours. Update will be out
shortly.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021/

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase today due to
the approaching tropical low that continues to weaken. The
greatest chance for shower development will mainly be near the
Tennessee River today. Activity will still peak during afternoon
heating with morning and overnight periods being mostly quiet.
Although, we may have a break from thunderstorms during overnight
hours, the front will begin to approach from the north while the
tropical low pushes to our north. This will bring a chance for
more widespread showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s today through
Wednesday.

By Thursday, the aforementioned front will continues to move
southeast towards towards the Mid-South. This will increase rain
chances during the day Thursday and especially Thursday night as
the front moves through. No severe weather is expected but storms
could produce gusty winds Thursday afternoon. Flooding may also be
an issue with the left over moisture from the tropical system.
Current forecast has up to an inch over northern Mississippi today
through early Friday, but locally higher amounts may be possible
with training of heavy showers and storms. Cloud coverage and
showers will result in temperatures in the 80s.

The front should be out of the area by Friday night. Models still
disagree but they do agree that rain chances will move out of the
area Friday evening. Expect a dry weekend in place behind the
front with slightly cooler temperatures. Unfortunately, we cant
completely rule out some isolated showers and storms during the
afternoon Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures begin to bounce back
to the upper 80s to lower 90s by the beginning of the week.

SWB

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

The primary concern in the near term is the convection associated
with the remnants of Tropical Storm Danny. This system will bring
showers and thunderstorms to north MS and west TN this afternoon
with activity likely to decrease in coverage/intensity this
evening as surface heating ceases. Gusty winds and temporary
visibility restrictions are likely with this band of storms.
Outside of these thunderstorms, expect light southeast winds and
VFR conditions with a diurnal Cu field between 4-5 kft.

A few showers are possible overnight, but coverage should remain
limited. We do anticipate an uptick in coverage on Wednesday as
surface heating commences and taps into ample instability. Will
likely need to include some additional VCSH/VCTS at some point.

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1109 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-301815-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
1109 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon
into the early evening hours across portions of North Mississippi
and West Tennessee as remnants of Tropical Storm Danny moves
across the region. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be
the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

KRM

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
138 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

TNZ055-092-291930-
Decatur TN-Hardin TN-
138 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR...

Decatur County in western Tennessee...
Northeastern Hardin County in western Tennessee...

At 137 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea to dime size
hail and winds at least 35 mph was located 10 miles south of Linden,
moving west at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Decatur and northeastern Hardin Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3540 8798 3539 8803 3536 8802 3537 8828
      3542 8827 3542 8824 3550 8824 3555 8823
      3555 8822 3556 8822 3561 8819 3566 8819
      3564 8803 3561 8803 3551 8797 3549 8798
      3547 8803 3544 8804 3543 8803 3542 8798
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 096DEG 14KT 3546 8788

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
212 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

TNZ053-054-292000-
Henderson TN-Chester TN-
212 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR...

Henderson County in western Tennessee...
Northeastern Chester County in western Tennessee...

At 212 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located near Reagan, or near Lexington, moving west at 10 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Henderson and northeastern Chester Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3559 8820 3556 8822 3555 8822 3553 8824
      3542 8824 3542 8836 3539 8836 3538 8841
      3539 8846 3537 8847 3537 8849 3539 8851
      3538 8856 3537 8856 3538 8858 3537 8862
      3576 8857 3569 8819
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 088DEG 10KT 3557 8833

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
215 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

MSZ003-004-TNZ090-291945-
Tippah MS-Benton MS-Hardeman TN-
215 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR...

Western Tippah County in northeastern Mississippi...
Eastern Benton County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southern Hardeman County in western Tennessee...

At 214 PM CDT...strong thunderstorms producing winds in excess of 40
mph was located along a line extending from 9 miles northwest of
Pocahontas to near Blue Mountain. Movement was west at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in western Tippah...eastern Benton and southern Hardeman
Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3521 8915 3462 8925 3461 8896 3517 8886
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 090DEG 15KT 3511 8896 3472 8904

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
217 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

MSZ015-022-023-291945-
Pontotoc MS-Calhoun MS-Chickasaw MS-
217 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR...

Southern Pontotoc County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northeastern Calhoun County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northwestern Chickasaw County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 217 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds in excess of 40
mph was located over Houlka, or 12 miles north of Houston, moving
west at 25 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southern Pontotoc...northeastern Calhoun and northwestern
Chickasaw Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3415 8884 3393 8884 3392 8925 3423 8924
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 095DEG 21KT 3407 8901

MJ