Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1216 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.UPDATE...
See the 18z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1057 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021/

UPDATE...

Remnants of Danny are flaring up across Alabama at this time. The
CAMS are having a hard time initializing with what is currently
going on. Will base update on the 12Z NSSL WRF and will update
POPS to bump them up across North Mississippi and West Tennessee.
Left high temperatures as is for now, but did bump up cloud cover
as well. Some of the storms this afternoon could become strong
possibly severe during the peak heating hours. Update will be out
shortly.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021/

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase today due to
the approaching tropical low that continues to weaken. The
greatest chance for shower development will mainly be near the
Tennessee River today. Activity will still peak during afternoon
heating with morning and overnight periods being mostly quiet.
Although, we may have a break from thunderstorms during overnight
hours, the front will begin to approach from the north while the
tropical low pushes to our north. This will bring a chance for
more widespread showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s today through
Wednesday.

By Thursday, the aforementioned front will continues to move
southeast towards towards the Mid-South. This will increase rain
chances during the day Thursday and especially Thursday night as
the front moves through. No severe weather is expected but storms
could produce gusty winds Thursday afternoon. Flooding may also be
an issue with the left over moisture from the tropical system.
Current forecast has up to an inch over northern Mississippi today
through early Friday, but locally higher amounts may be possible
with training of heavy showers and storms. Cloud coverage and
showers will result in temperatures in the 80s.

The front should be out of the area by Friday night. Models still
disagree but they do agree that rain chances will move out of the
area Friday evening. Expect a dry weekend in place behind the
front with slightly cooler temperatures. Unfortunately, we cant
completely rule out some isolated showers and storms during the
afternoon Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures begin to bounce back
to the upper 80s to lower 90s by the beginning of the week.

SWB

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

The primary concern in the near term is the convection associated
with the remnants of Tropical Storm Danny. This system will bring
showers and thunderstorms to north MS and west TN this afternoon
with activity likely to decrease in coverage/intensity this
evening as surface heating ceases. Gusty winds and temporary
visibility restrictions are likely with this band of storms.
Outside of these thunderstorms, expect light southeast winds and
VFR conditions with a diurnal Cu field between 4-5 kft.

A few showers are possible overnight, but coverage should remain
limited. We do anticipate an uptick in coverage on Wednesday as
surface heating commences and taps into ample instability. Will
likely need to include some additional VCSH/VCTS at some point.

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1109 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-301815-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
1109 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon
into the early evening hours across portions of North Mississippi
and West Tennessee as remnants of Tropical Storm Danny moves
across the region. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be
the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

KRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1156 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

MSZ006-009-017-291730-
Itawamba MS-Tishomingo MS-Prentiss MS-
1156 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
FOR...

Itawamba County in northeastern Mississippi...
Tishomingo County in northeastern Mississippi...
Eastern Prentiss County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 1155 AM CDT...strong thunderstorms producing winds in excess of
35 mph were located along a line extending from near Cherokee to
near Tremont. Movement was west at 30 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Itawamba...Tishomingo and eastern Prentiss Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3420 8819 3424 8855 3432 8855 3500 8826
      3500 8820 3492 8815 3489 8810
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 090DEG 25KT 3484 8799 3426 8824

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1213 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

TNZ092-291800-
Hardin TN-
1213 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 100 PM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Hardin County in western Tennessee...

At 1212 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds in excess of
35 mph was located 8 miles east of Walnut Grove, or 17 miles
northeast of J P Coleman State Park, moving west at 20 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Hardin County should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3501 8820 3500 8820 3500 8825 3529 8817
      3527 8798 3501 8799
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 102DEG 19KT 3505 8789

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
138 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

TNZ055-092-291930-
Decatur TN-Hardin TN-
138 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR...

Decatur County in western Tennessee...
Northeastern Hardin County in western Tennessee...

At 137 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea to dime size
hail and winds at least 35 mph was located 10 miles south of Linden,
moving west at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Decatur and northeastern Hardin Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3540 8798 3539 8803 3536 8802 3537 8828
      3542 8827 3542 8824 3550 8824 3555 8823
      3555 8822 3556 8822 3561 8819 3566 8819
      3564 8803 3561 8803 3551 8797 3549 8798
      3547 8803 3544 8804 3543 8803 3542 8798
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 096DEG 14KT 3546 8788