Alert archive / Mississippi / Special Weather Statements in 2021

Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

May 9, 2021Tate County, Mississippi

NWS Memphis, TN issued this special weather statement at May 9, 2021, 9:48 AM CDT for Tate County, Mississippi. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 9, 2021, 9:48 AM CDT (14:48 UTC)
Expired: May 9, 2021, 10:15 AM CDT
In force: 27 min
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN

County Tate County, MS

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 27 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 203 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -439 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 759 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 446 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 571 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 9, 6:00 AM CDT, 3 hours 48 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 9, 6:00 AM CDT, 3 hours 48 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
600 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

.DISCUSSION... /issued 529 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021/

Severe weather remains on track for today.

KSGF radar showed a linear MCS propagating south through the
southern MO Ozarks at 5 AM. To the south and east, scattered
elevated thunderstorms extended south into north central AR,
lifting east. This convection was aided by a strong low level jet,
that increased in strength further east, near the MS River. KNQA
VAD wind profiler detected southwest winds of 80 knots at 5 kft
AGL, indicative of the strong kinematic response the open trof
lifting through the mid-MS River valley.

Outflow from the eastern periphery of the early morning Ozarks
MCS will likely enter northeast AR, MO bootheel and northwest TN
in the morning daylight hours. The low level jet will weaken as it
translates east, but still will likely sustain at least shallow
convection along and north of the outflow boundary. Low level
mixing and tightening pressure gradient will likely wash wash out
the outflow boundary by midmorning.

08Z HRRR guidance shows the synoptic cold front entering northeast
AR at noon to 1 PM, moving a fairly good clip. This will likely
be sufficient to overcome a weakening but still prominent
midlevel capping inversion near the base of an elevated mixed
layer (EML). This EML will be responsible for very steep 700-500mb
lapse rates of 8-9C/km, and mixed-layer CAPE around 2800 J/KG
near Jonesboro. Such an environment would be supportive of very
large hail, in excess of 2 inches where the cap can be broken.
Although surface- 3km storm relative helicity decreases to around
200 m2/s2 by midday, tornado threat cannot be discounted, given
the stout CAPE and the presence of locally-enhanced helicity near
boundaries.

By mid-afternoon, cold will become the focus for convection,
likely reaching the Memphis metro by 5 PM. Convective mode
shouldn't change much, with numerous CAMs still depicting discrete
cells along the front. Later n the evening, NAM Bufr sounding for
Tupelo depicts CAPE decreasing below 1000 J/kg by 9M, though
veering wind profiles will likely support a threat of tornadoes
over north MS at least through early evening. In general, expect
large hail threat to wane a bit over north MS during the early
evening, particularly if convection becomes less discrete/more
linear. Storms should exit north MS by midnight.

Beyond tonight, few changes to the forecast. The Midsouth will
remain on the cool side of a stationary front extending through
the Arklamiss. Rain may briefly edge into east AR and west TN
Tuesday night and Wednesday, ahead of northern branch height
falls. Dry and relatively cool for the latter half of the week,
under northwest flow aloft.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF Set

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will continue to increase across
Eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and West Tennessee this
morning as a strong low-level jet remains in place. Will mention
of low-level wind shear at all four TAF sites. Southerly winds at
the surface will be around 20 KTS sustained with gusts to 30 KTS.
By this afternoon, a line of thunderstorms is expected to develop
along a cold front that will sink south through the Mid-South.
Have added TEMPOS for timing at four TAF sites to account for the
line. CIGS will remain MVFR behind the front, dropping to IFR at
KMKL and KTUP by 02-03Z. Expect some improvement to begin to
occur at KMEM just before the end of the 30 hour TAF. Winds will
switch around to the NW and eventually NNE behind the front.
Speeds will gradually diminish to around 10 KTS.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Coahoma-DeSoto-Marshall-Panola-Prentiss-Quitman-Tate-Tippah-
     Tishomingo-Tunica.

TN...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Benton TN-
     Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-
     Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-
     Madison-McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, May 9, 3:42 AM CDT, 6 hours 6 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
342 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-101045-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
342 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms over east
central Arkansas, southwest Tennessee, northwest and north central
Mississippi. There is a Slight Risk over the remainder of the
Midsouth.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop through the day, becoming
most numerous along and ahead of a slow-moving cold front this
afternoon and early evening. These thunderstorms will be capable
of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and a few brief
tornadoes. Localized flash flooding will be possible.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible as early as late morning,
but will be more likely from mid-afternoon through mid-evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed, mainly this afternoon through
mid evening.

PWB

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 9, 7:10 AM CDT, 2 hours 38 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
710 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

ARZ028-MOZ113-115-TNZ001-002-019-048-091245-
Mississippi AR-Pemiscot MO-Dunklin MO-Lake TN-Lauderdale TN-Obion TN-
Dyer TN-
710 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 745 AM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Mississippi County in eastern Arkansas...
Southern Pemiscot County in southeastern Missouri...
Southeastern Dunklin County in southeastern Missouri...
Southern Lake County in western Tennessee...
North central Lauderdale County in western Tennessee...
Southwestern Obion County in western Tennessee...
Dyer County in western Tennessee...

At 709 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail and
winds 40 to 50 mph was located over Blytheville, moving northeast at
55 mph.

People in northeastern Mississippi...southern Pemiscot...southeastern
Dunklin...southern Lake...north central Lauderdale...southwestern
Obion and Dyer Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3575 9001 3603 9013 3636 8942 3624 8926
      3599 8924
TIME...MOT...LOC 1209Z 239DEG 49KT 3594 8992

KRM

Special weather statement, May 9, 7:28 AM CDT, 2 hours 20 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
728 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

ARZ009-018-MOZ113-091300-
Greene AR-Clay AR-Dunklin MO-
728 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 800 AM CDT
FOR...

Greene County in eastern Arkansas...
Clay County in eastern Arkansas...
Northeastern Dunklin County in southeastern Missouri...

At 727 AM CDT...strong thunderstorms producing winds 40 to 50 mph
was located along a line extending from near Milltown to 8 miles
west of Annieville. Movement was east at 65 mph.

People in Greene...Clay and northeastern Dunklin Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3663 8996 3652 8996 3635 9005 3597 9058
      3597 9085 3599 9086 3608 9082 3615 9075
      3615 9081 3629 9081 3630 9079 3628 9075
      3641 9075 3643 9078 3650 9078 3650 9022
      3663 9015
TIME...MOT...LOC 1227Z 276DEG 56KT 3679 9051 3611 9138

KRM

Special weather statement, May 9, 8:39 AM CDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
839 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

TNZ002-003-019-091415-
Weakley TN-Obion TN-Dyer TN-
839 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 915 AM CDT
FOR...

Northern Weakley County in western Tennessee...
Obion County in western Tennessee...
Northeastern Dyer County in western Tennessee...

At 838 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing penny to nickel size
hail and winds 45 to 55 mph was located over Obion, or 12 miles
southeast of Reelfoot Lake State Park, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northern Weakley...Obion and northeastern Dyer Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3636 8860 3620 8911 3620 8915 3619 8916
      3615 8928 3632 8937 3650 8896 3650 8868
TIME...MOT...LOC 1338Z 245DEG 49KT 3628 8923

Special weather statement, May 9, 9:20 AM CDT, 28 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
920 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

TNZ020-021-050>052-091445-
Carroll TN-Madison TN-Crockett TN-Haywood TN-Gibson TN-
920 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 945 AM CDT
FOR...

Southwestern Carroll County in western Tennessee...
Northern Madison County in western Tennessee...
Southeastern Crockett County in western Tennessee...
Northeastern Haywood County in western Tennessee...
Southeastern Gibson County in western Tennessee...

At 919 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea to dime size
hail and winds of 45 mph was located over Holly Grove, or 8 miles
northeast of Brownsville, moving northeast at 55 mph.

People in southwestern Carroll...northern Madison...southeastern
Crockett...northeastern Haywood and southeastern Gibson Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3582 8858 3580 8860 3579 8860 3579 8861
      3576 8861 3554 8918 3570 8929 3603 8870
      3582 8856
TIME...MOT...LOC 1419Z 240DEG 47KT 3566 8913

WOODALL

Special weather statement, May 9, 9:48 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
948 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

MSZ002-008-012-091515-
Marshall MS-Panola MS-Tate MS-
948 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1015 AM CDT
FOR...

Southwestern Marshall County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northern Panola County in northwestern Mississippi...
Tate County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 947 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea to dime size
hail and winds 40 to 50 mph was located near Crenshaw, or 11 miles
southwest of Senatobia, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southwestern Marshall...northern Panola and Tate Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3443 9020 3455 9020 3456 9022 3477 8977
      3477 8972 3480 8972 3483 8965 3458 8951
      3455 8960 3455 8972 3452 8972 3438 9017
TIME...MOT...LOC 1447Z 245DEG 49KT 3450 9013

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 8, 8:42 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	MEG	Monroe	36 hr
May 8, 8:42 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	MEG	Monroe	36 hr
May 9, 10:14 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Panola	31 min
May 9, 11:24 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Union	36 min
May 9, 4:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Tunica	40 min
May 9, 5:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	DeSoto, Tate, Tunica	24 min
May 9, 5:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	DeSoto, Panola, Quitman, Tate, Tunica	36 min
May 9, 6:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lafayette, Marshall, Panola, Tate	44 min
May 9, 6:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Calhoun, Lafayette, Marshall, Pontotoc, Union	44 min
May 9, 6:42 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Lafayette, Marshall, Pontotoc, Union	21 min
May 9, 7:10 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Dyer	35 min
May 9, 8:39 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Obion	36 min
May 9, 9:20 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Crockett	25 min
May 9, 3:01 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Dyer	44 min
May 9, 3:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Dyer, Lauderdale	28 min
May 9, 4:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lauderdale, Tipton	28 min
May 9, 4:29 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Benton	31 min
May 9, 5:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Carroll	30 min
May 9, 5:11 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Fayette, Shelby, Tipton	21 min
May 9, 5:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Chester, Henderson, Madison	36 min
May 9, 5:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Chester, Hardeman, McNairy	36 min
May 9, 7:28 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Clay, Greene	32 min
May 9, 3:35 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Craighead	25 min
May 9, 3:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Mississippi, Poinsett	36 min
May 9, 3:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Cross, Poinsett	35 min
May 9, 4:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Cross, St. Francis	29 min
May 9, 4:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Cross, Lee, St. Francis	40 min
May 9, 4:28 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Lee, St. Francis	32 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Mississippi, 2021 Every special weather statement in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.