Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
216 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

.DISCUSSION...
A complex convective setup for the remainder of the afternoon,
with respect to timing of thunderstorm initiation. A weak
shortwave trof, evident on GOES water vapor imagery lifted across
AR into southeast MO late in the morning. With cool and relatively
stable outflow over west TN from this morning's rainfall, this
shortwave had little effect, other than to sustain showers near
the MO bootheel. KNQA VAD wind profiler showed winds backed
briefly, then winds veered in response to the shortwave. With this
feature now past, SSW boundary layer flow at early afternoon was
not lending toward particularly high SRH values.

Temps in the lower 80s and dewpoints near 70 should support mixed
layer CAPE near 2500 J/kG over north MS, southwest TN and east
central AR through sunset. Storm intuition may be a little
disorganized in location at first, but should cluster and organize
around subsequent outflow boundaries. As, or perhaps before,
mixed layer CAPE begins to slowly decrease, 0-6km bulk shear will
increase to near 60 knots, aiding storm organization and hail
threat. Areas of locally-enhanced helicity near outflow boundaries
may support a tornado or two in the moderately unstable airmass
through midevening. A gradual transition to a QLCS is expected mid
to late evening, with damaging winds, and short-lived QLCS
tornadoes possible. Up-line cell training and precipitable water
values near 1.8 inches will support high rainfall rates and flash
flooding.

The convective line should exit northeast MS near or shortly after
sunrise Sunday, with cool and dry candidness prevailing across
the Midsouth.

Modest moisture return will occur Tuesday afternoon and evening,
in advance of a deep longwave trof developing over the middle
portion of the CONUS. Steep midlevel height falls will accompany a
cold frontal passage through the Midsouth early Wednesday morning.
Given the lack of instability, severe storms are not anticipated
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Cool and dry conditions will prevail late in the week, as upper
level flow transitions from northwesterly to zonal. Rural areas
to the north and east of Memphis may see nighttime lows near
freezing, near to just a little earlier than our average last
spring freeze dates.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF

Most of the activity has shifted north and east for now. Latest
satellite does show some pockets of clearing but cigs will
generally stay MVFR criteria. Storms will likely develop over
portions of North MS along the southern extent of the outflow
from this morning's activity. A cold front will also push through
tonight bringing with it a greater coverage of showers and storms
across the Mid- South. Southerly/Southwesterly winds will pick up
as this front moves through 10-15kts with gusts nearing 25kts.
Precip will end from west to east as early as 09/10z for JBR.
Winds will swing back to the northwest with cigs starting to
improve.

17

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St.
     Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     DeSoto-Marshall-Prentiss-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-
     Union.

TN...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
303 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-282215-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
303 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a Slight to Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over
the Midsouth through late tonight. Primary severe weather threats
include flash flooding and damaging winds. There is also a threat
of tornadoes and large hail, mainly before midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Near freezing temperatures will be possible Thursday and Friday
mornings over northwest Tennessee.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely through late tonight.

PWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
350 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

TNZ050-052-053-090-272115-
Hardeman TN-Chester TN-Madison TN-Haywood TN-
350 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR...

Northern Hardeman County in western Tennessee...
West central Chester County in western Tennessee...
Southwestern Madison County in western Tennessee...
Southeastern Haywood County in western Tennessee...

At 350 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Cloverport, or 10
miles northwest of Bolivar, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northern Hardeman...west central Chester...southwestern
Madison and southeastern Haywood Counties should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3534 8912 3545 8920 3564 8885 3539 8870
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 238DEG 22KT 3541 8909

KRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
415 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

TNZ048-049-272145-
Tipton TN-Lauderdale TN-
415 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Tipton County in western Tennessee...
Southwestern Lauderdale County in western Tennessee...

At 415 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Fort Pillow State
Park, moving northeast at 30 mph.

People in northeastern Tipton and southwestern Lauderdale Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3561 8951 3555 8985 3557 8989 3562 8991
      3562 8990 3564 8985 3566 8985 3567 8986
      3565 8990 3566 8990 3567 8989 3581 8962
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 241DEG 27KT 3562 8982

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
502 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     HAIL             REAGAN                  35.52N  88.35W
03/27/2021  M1.75 INCH       HENDERSON          TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL IN SHADY HILL AREA.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
508 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             SCOTTS HILL             35.52N  88.25W
03/27/2021  M1.00 INCH       HENDERSON          TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
513 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

ARZ035-048-272245-
St. Francis AR-Cross AR-
513 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR...

Northwestern St. Francis County in eastern Arkansas...
Southeastern Cross County in eastern Arkansas...

At 513 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Fair Oaks, or 14
miles northwest of Palestine, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northwestern St. Francis and southeastern Cross Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3524 9104 3539 9068 3510 9057 3501 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 246DEG 37KT 3514 9106

KRM