Alert archive / Tennessee / River Flood Warnings in 2021

River Flood Warning 42, NWS Memphis, TN

March 27, 2021Madison County, Tennessee

NWS Memphis, TN issued this river flood warning at Mar 27, 2021, 11:29 AM CDT for Madison County, Tennessee. It took effect at Mar 28, 2021, 4:00 AM CDT. It was in force for 3 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 27, 2021, 11:29 AM CDT (16:29 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 28, 2021, 4:00 AM CDT
Expired
Mar 31, 2021, 8:30 AM CDT
In force
3 days
Issued by
NWS Memphis, TN
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

County Madison County, TN

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point South Fork Forked Deer River at Jackson (JKNT1).

Action stage
32 ft
Minor stage
34 ft
Moderate stage
37.5 ft
Major stage
39 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

976 
WGUS44 KMEG 271629
FLWMEG

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1129 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...The National Weather Service in Memphis TN has issued a Flood 
Warning for the following rivers in Tennessee...

  S.F. of the Forked Deer River at Jackson

  S.F. of the Forked Deer River near Halls

  Loosahatchie River at Arlington

  Wolf River at Germantown

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/memphis.

The next statement will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&


TNC047-157-281930-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FL.W.0041.210328T0040Z-210329T0627Z/
/ARLT1.2.ER.210328T0040Z.210328T1200Z.210329T0026Z.NO/
1129 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  the Loosahatchie River at Arlington.
* From this evening to late Sunday night.
* At 11:15 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 18.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage this 
  evening to a crest of 22.0 feet Sunday morning. It will then fall 
  below flood stage Sunday evening.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet, Brief Road is flooding. 


&&

LAT...LON 3533 9005 3529 8980 3538 8964 3520 8964
      3524 8989 3522 9004

$$

TNC113-281930-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FL.W.0042.210328T0900Z-210330T0131Z/
/JKNT1.1.ER.210328T0900Z.210329T0000Z.210329T1930Z.NO/
1129 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  the S.F. of the Forked Deer River at Jackson.
* From late tonight to Monday evening.
* At 11:00 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 32.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 34.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  tonight to a crest of 35.0 feet Sunday evening. It will then fall 
  below flood stage early Monday afternoon.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet, The east bank of the South Fork of the 
  Forked Deer River overflows flooding low-lying areas of the 
  University of Tennessee Agriculture Experiment Station.


&&

LAT...LON 3572 8897 3565 8862 3544 8880 3559 8906

$$

TNC033-045-097-281930-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FL.W.0043.210328T0907Z-000000T0000Z/
/HLST1.1.ER.210328T0907Z.210328T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1129 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  the S.F. of the Forked Deer River near Halls.
* From late tonight until further notice.
* At 11:00 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 6.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage late tonight to 
  11.5 feet early Sunday afternoon. It will then fall to 10.0 feet 
  Monday evening, but the river will remain above flood stage.
* Impact...At 11.5 feet, Farm land near the river is flooded.


&&

LAT...LON 3595 8948 3600 8940 3589 8932 3584 8940

$$

TNC157-281930-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FL.W.0044.210328T1108Z-210328T2001Z/
/GERT1.1.ER.210328T1108Z.210328T1200Z.210328T1400Z.NO/
1129 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  the Wolf River at Germantown.
* From Sunday morning to Sunday afternoon.
* At 10:45 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 14.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage 
  tomorrow morning to a crest of 20.6 feet late Sunday morning. It 
  will then fall below flood stage by Sunday afternoon.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet, Greenways flooding along the Wolf River is 
  more extensive from Houston Levee Road to Interstate 40.


&&

LAT...LON 3522 9004 3524 8989 3520 8964 3502 8965
      3511 8991 3514 9004

$$

TLSJr
7 follow-up statements
322 
WGUS84 KMEG 280108
FLSMEG

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
808 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Tennessee...

  S.F. of the Forked Deer River at Jackson

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/memphis.

The next statement will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&


TNC113-290115-
/O.CON.KMEG.FL.W.0042.210328T0900Z-210330T0131Z/
/JKNT1.1.ER.210328T0900Z.210329T0000Z.210329T1930Z.NO/
808 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the S.F. of the Forked Deer River at Jackson.
* From late tonight to Monday evening.
* At 11:00 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 32.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 34.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  tonight to a crest of 35.0 feet tomorrow evening. It will then 
  fall below flood stage early Monday afternoon.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet, The east bank of the South Fork of the 
  Forked Deer River overflows flooding low-lying areas of the 
  University of Tennessee Agriculture Experiment Station.


&&

LAT...LON 3572 8897 3565 8862 3544 8880 3559 8906

$$
921 
WGUS84 KMEG 281523
FLSMEG

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1023 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Tennessee...

  S.F. of the Forked Deer River at Jackson

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Tennessee...

  S.F. of the Forked Deer River near Halls

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/memphis.

The next statement will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&


TNC113-300330-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-210331T2015Z/
/JKNT1.1.ER.210328T0412Z.210330T0000Z.210331T1415Z.NO/
1023 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Wednesday afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the S.F. of the Forked Deer River at Jackson.
* Until Wednesday afternoon.
* At 9:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 34.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 34.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 36.5 feet 
  tomorrow evening. It will then fall below flood stage late 
  Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 36.0 feet, businesses in low-lying areas near the 
  river are flooding.


&&

LAT...LON 3572 8897 3565 8862 3544 8880 3559 8906

$$

TNC033-045-097-300330-
/O.CON.KMEG.FL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HLST1.1.ER.210328T0225Z.210328T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1023 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the S.F. of the Forked Deer River near Halls.
* Until further notice.
* At 9:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 9:00 AM CDT Sunday was 11.8 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to near 10.0 feet by late 
  this afternoon, then hold steady between 10.0 and 11.0 feet 
  through the middle of the next week.
* Impact...At 11.5 feet, farm land near the river is flooded.


&&

LAT...LON 3595 8948 3600 8940 3589 8932 3584 8940

$$

MJ
528 
WGUS84 KMEG 290115
FLSMEG

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
815 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Tennessee...

  Loosahatchie River at Arlington

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Tennessee...

  S.F. of the Forked Deer River near Halls

  S.F. of the Forked Deer River at Jackson

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/memphis.

The next statement will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&


TNC047-157-301315-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-210331T0138Z/
/ARLT1.2.ER.210328T0745Z.210330T0000Z.210330T1938Z.NO/
815 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Tuesday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Loosahatchie River at Arlington.
* Until Tuesday evening.
* At 7:15 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 20.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 22.0 feet 
  tomorrow evening. It will then fall below flood stage early 
  Tuesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet, Brief Road is flooding. 


&&

LAT...LON 3533 9005 3529 8980 3538 8964 3520 8964
      3524 8989 3522 9004

$$

TNC033-045-097-301315-
/O.CON.KMEG.FL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HLST1.1.ER.210328T0225Z.210328T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
815 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the S.F. of the Forked Deer River near Halls.
* Until further notice.
* At 7:00 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 10.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river may jump up 11.5 feet Monday morning,but 
  likely will slowly rise to around 10.7 by the end of the week.
* Impact...At 11.5 feet, Farm land near the river is flooded.


&&

LAT...LON 3595 8948 3600 8940 3589 8932 3584 8940

$$

TNC113-301315-
/O.CON.KMEG.FL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-210331T2015Z/
/JKNT1.1.ER.210328T0412Z.210330T0000Z.210331T1415Z.NO/
815 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the S.F. of the Forked Deer River at Jackson.
* Until Wednesday afternoon.
* At 7:00 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 35.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 34.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 36.5 feet 
  tomorrow evening. It will then fall below flood stage late 
  Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 36.0 feet, Businesses in low-lying areas near the 
  river are flooding.


&&

LAT...LON 3572 8897 3565 8862 3544 8880 3559 8906

$$

mm
729 
WGUS84 KMEG 291418
FLSMEG

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
918 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Tennessee...

  South Fork of the Forked Deer River at Jackson

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Tennessee...

  South Fork of the Forked Deer River near Halls

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/memphis.

The next statement will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&


TNC113-310230-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-210401T1400Z/
/JKNT1.1.ER.210328T0412Z.210330T0000Z.210401T0800Z.NO/
918 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late Thursday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the S.F. of the Forked Deer River at Jackson.
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 8:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 35.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 34.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 36.0 feet 
  this evening. It will then fall below flood stage early Thursday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 36.0 feet, businesses in low-lying areas near the 
  river are flooding.


&&

LAT...LON 3572 8897 3565 8862 3544 8880 3559 8906

$$

TNC033-045-097-310230-
/O.CON.KMEG.FL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HLST1.1.ER.210328T0225Z.210404T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
918 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the S.F. of the Forked Deer River near Halls.
* Until further notice.
* At 8:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 10.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to slowly rise to near 12.0 feet 
  this weekend. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 11.5 feet, Farm land near the river is flooded.


&&

LAT...LON 3595 8948 3600 8940 3589 8932 3584 8940

$$

MJ
997 
WGUS84 KMEG 300129
FLSMEG

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
829 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Tennessee...

  S.F. of the Forked Deer River at Jackson

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/memphis.

The next statement will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&


TNC113-311330-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-210401T0300Z/
/JKNT1.1.ER.210328T0412Z.210329T1600Z.210331T2100Z.NO/
829 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late Wednesday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the S.F. of the Forked Deer River at Jackson.
* Until Wednesday evening.
* At 8:00 PM CDT Monday the stage was 35.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 34.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage 
  Wednesday afternoon and continue falling to 25.9 feet Saturday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 36.0 feet, Businesses in low-lying areas near the 
  river are flooding.


&&

LAT...LON 3572 8897 3565 8862 3544 8880 3559 8906

$$

mm
545 
WGUS84 KMEG 301628
FLSMEG

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1128 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Tennessee...

  South Fork of the Forked Deer River at Jackson and near Halls

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/memphis.

The next statement will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&


TNC113-311330-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-210331T1330Z/
/JKNT1.1.ER.210328T0412Z.210329T1600Z.210331T0730Z.NO/
1128 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the S.F. of the Forked Deer River at Jackson.
* Until Wednesday morning.
* At 10:00 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 34.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 34.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 10:00 AM CDT Tuesday was 35.8 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage just 
  after midnight tonight and continue falling to 30.0 feet Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet, The east bank of the South Fork of the 
  Forked Deer River overflows flooding low-lying areas of the 
  University of Tennessee Agriculture Experiment Station.


&&

LAT...LON 3572 8897 3565 8862 3544 8880 3559 8906

$$

TNC033-045-097-010430-
/O.CON.KMEG.FL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HLST1.1.ER.210328T0225Z.210403T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1128 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the S.F. of the Forked Deer River near Halls.
* Until further notice.
* At 10:00 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 11.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 10:00 AM CDT Tuesday was 11.3 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to 12.0 feet Saturday 
  morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter and the river 
  will remain above flood stage.
* Impact...At 11.5 feet, Farm land near the river is flooded.


&&

LAT...LON 3595 8948 3600 8940 3589 8932 3584 8940

$$

TLSJr
346 
WGUS84 KMEG 310101
FLSMEG

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
801 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Tennessee...

  S.F. of the Forked Deer River at Jackson

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/memphis.

The next statement will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&


TNC113-311330-
/O.CON.KMEG.FL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-210331T1330Z/
/JKNT1.1.ER.210328T0412Z.210329T1600Z.210331T0730Z.NO/
801 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the S.F. of the Forked Deer River at Jackson.
* Until Wednesday morning.
* At 7:00 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 34.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 34.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage after 
  midnight tonight and continue falling to 29.1 feet Sunday evening.
* Impact...At 34.0 feet, Businesses along Westover Road are affected 
  by flood waters.


&&

LAT...LON 3572 8897 3565 8862 3544 8880 3559 8906

$$

mm

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Mar 27, 10:39 AM CDT, 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 27, 10:39 AM CDT, 50 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1039 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

.UPDATE...
Severe storms appear on track for mid/late afternoon development,
and persistence into at least the early overnight period.

Morning storms, which were rooted in an elevated layer above a
rapidly advancing surface warm front, have contributed uncertainty
regarding initial location and timing of new surface-based storm
development this afternoon. 12Z NAM 3km and 14Z HRRR have
trended toward the NSSL- WRF solution depicting storms developing
over north MS this afternoon, along the southern extent of the
outflow from this morning's MCS. To the north, less robust storm
development is depicted over northeast AR through northwest TN.
This scenario appears reasonable, given the southerly 10 to 15kt
southerly inflow of unmodified high theta-e air from central MS
and the Arklamiss region. Surface based CAPE of 2500 to 3000 J/KG
may be realized, if cloud breaks continue from the Arklamiss into
north MS. Timing will affect location, if storm initiation is
delayed until after 4 PM, the remnant outflow boundary from this
morning's storms may retreat north into southwest TN.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/

UPDATE...

12Z Aviation Update Below

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/

DISCUSSION...
A warm front is pushing into the area this morning as expected.
Thunderstorms are currently ongoing across north Mississippi,
eastern Arkansas,and west Tennessee. These storms are the
beginning of a stormy day across the Mid South. The warm front
should continue to move into west Tennessee this morning, and
stall somewhere over the area. Currently we expect it to hang
around I-40. This will front will serve as focus for shower and
storm development this morning. This will allow for storms to
train over the same areas, and with PW values being very high and
deep warm cloud layers storms will be very efficient rain
producers. This is why the Weather Prediction has a Slight to Moderate
Risk of Excessive Rainfall across the forecast area through Sunday
morning. We have issued a Flash Flood Watch for a large portion of
the forecast area through Sunday morning. Expect roughly 2 to 4
inches across the Moderate risk area with locally higher amounts.
Rainfall rates with storms today could be anywhere between 1.5 to
2.5 inches per hour. Along with the flash flood threat there is a
pretty good chance that we will see some severe weather as well.
Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes will all be possible
today. The Storm Prediction Center has a large Enhanced Risk over
a large portion of the region. There are a few things that make
this a tricky forecast on the severe weather front for parts of
the day. The morning convection could work over the atmosphere
and we get less instability in the afternoon where storms have
cooled the atmosphere. It still remains to be seen what will
happen obviously but I do have greater confidence in severe storms
later in the evening when the cold front moves into the area and
provides greater lift, and the atmosphere may have more time to
recover. That along with greater shear and dynamics will allow for
severe storms to develop the evening and tonight. This is a
complex setup and please stay weather aware through Sunday
morning. Cooler and drier air will spread through the Midsouth
Sunday morning, with rain exiting northeast MS by midmorning
Sunday. Monday and Tuesday should be dry. The next shot of
organized rain looks to come by midweek as another cold front
moves through, and a dry look for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF

A warm front is continuing to lift into the area. The front will
stall along the I-40 corridor with SHRAs/TSRAs continuing through
the day. A cold front will push through Saturday night with more
SHRAs/TSRAs followed by low clouds. SSE wind 5-10kts will increase
to 10-12 kts with gusts to 25kts possible. Winds will shift to the
NNW by the end of the TAF cycle.

SMW

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St.
     Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     DeSoto-Marshall-Prentiss-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-
     Union.

TN...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 27, 4:52 AM CDT, 6 hours 37 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
452 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-281200-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
452 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An Slight to Enhanced Risk of Severe storms exists for the Midsouth
Saturday and Saturday night. All modes of severe weather will be
possible. Damaging winds, large hail, flash flooding, and
tornadoes will be possible.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for a large portion of the
forecast area through Sunday morning. See website for more
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed today through early
Sunday morning. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 27, 7:00 AM CDT, 4 hours 29 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
700 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

TNZ053-054-091-092-271230-
Henderson TN-Chester TN-McNairy TN-Hardin TN-
700 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 730 AM CDT
FOR...

Southwestern Henderson County in western Tennessee...
Chester County in western Tennessee...
McNairy County in western Tennessee...
Northwestern Hardin County in western Tennessee...

At 700 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Masseyville, or 7
miles south of Henderson, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Very heavy rain is also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southwestern Henderson...Chester...McNairy and northwestern
Hardin Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3513 8835 3513 8878 3543 8880 3549 8868
      3552 8865 3570 8835
TIME...MOT...LOC 1200Z 246DEG 38KT 3533 8867
Special weather statement, Mar 27, 7:16 AM CDT, 4 hours 13 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
716 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

MSZ006-TNZ054-055-092-271245-
Tishomingo MS-Henderson TN-Decatur TN-Hardin TN-
716 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 745 AM CDT
FOR...

Northern Tishomingo County in northeastern Mississippi...
Eastern Henderson County in western Tennessee...
Decatur County in western Tennessee...
Hardin County in western Tennessee...

At 716 AM CDT...strong thunderstorms producing penny to nickel size
hail and winds 35 to 45 mph was located along a line extending from
near Lexington to Leedy. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northern Tishomingo...eastern Henderson...Decatur and
Hardin Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3539 8803 3530 8802 3529 8798 3501 8798
      3501 8820 3489 8810 3473 8812 3471 8833
      3500 8838 3541 8835 3549 8836 3549 8842
      3568 8842 3585 8805 3581 8797 3572 8803
      3562 8804 3552 8797 3544 8804 3541 8797
TIME...MOT...LOC 1216Z 233DEG 48KT 3569 8837 3479 8837
Special weather statement, Mar 27, 7:52 AM CDT, 3 hours 37 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
752 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

MSZ004>006-009-TNZ091-092-271330-
Tippah MS-Tishomingo MS-Alcorn MS-Prentiss MS-McNairy TN-Hardin TN-
752 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 830 AM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Tippah County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northern Tishomingo County in northeastern Mississippi...
Alcorn County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northern Prentiss County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southeastern McNairy County in western Tennessee...
Southwestern Hardin County in western Tennessee...

At 752 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located 7 miles west of
Jumpertown, or 8 miles east of Ripley, moving northeast at 60 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Tippah...northern Tishomingo...Alcorn...
northern Prentiss...southeastern McNairy and southwestern Hardin
Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3486 8810 3451 8870 3459 8870 3459 8873
      3460 8874 3460 8881 3479 8895 3517 8829
      3501 8815 3501 8820 3499 8820 3493 8816
      3491 8814 3489 8810
TIME...MOT...LOC 1252Z 236DEG 53KT 3471 8879
Local storm report, Mar 27, 8:37 AM CDT, 2 hours 52 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
837 AM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST MEMPHIS            35.13N  89.87W
03/27/2021                   SHELBY             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON CHERRY ROAD NEAR PARK IN MEMPHIS.

&&

MGW
Local storm report, Mar 27, 9:06 AM CDT, 2 hours 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
906 AM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 AM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST MEMPHIS            35.13N  89.87W
03/27/2021                   SHELBY             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON CHERRY ROAD NEAR PARK IN MEMPHIS.

&&

MGW
Local storm report, Mar 27, 9:33 AM CDT, 1 hour 56 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
933 AM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ADAMSVILLE              35.23N  88.39W
03/27/2021                   MCNAIRY            TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            FLOODING ACROSS ELM ROAD. ROAD IMPASSABLE

&&

MGW

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 27, 2:44 AM CDTFlash Flood WatchMEGBenton, Carroll, Chester, Crockett, Decatur, Dyer and 15 more24 hr
Mar 27, 4:59 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGTipton31 min
Mar 27, 5:06 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGCarroll, Madison24 min
Mar 27, 5:13 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningMEGShelby3 hr
Mar 27, 5:14 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningMEGMadison3 hr
Mar 27, 5:20 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGShelby40 min
Mar 27, 5:34 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGShelby41 min
Mar 27, 5:37 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGBenton, Carroll53 min
Mar 27, 5:56 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGFayette49 min
Mar 27, 7:00 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGChester, Henderson, McNairy30 min
Mar 27, 7:16 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGDecatur, Hardin, Henderson29 min
Mar 27, 9:01 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMEGFayette, Haywood, Shelby, Tipton3 hr
Mar 27, 9:33 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningMEGChester, Decatur, Hardeman, Hardin, Henderson, McNairy5 hr
Mar 27, 11:29 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningMEGFayette, Shelby44 hr
Mar 27, 11:29 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningMEGCrockett, Dyer, Lauderdale14 days
Mar 27, 11:29 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningMEGShelby23 hr
Mar 27, 3:45 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGTipton30 min
Mar 27, 3:50 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGMadison25 min
Mar 27, 4:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGChester, Hardeman, Henderson, Madison40 min
Mar 27, 4:15 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGLauderdale30 min
Mar 27, 4:35 PM CDTTornado WarningMEGChester, Decatur, Henderson40 min
Mar 27, 5:05 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMEGChester, Henderson, Madison3 hr
Mar 27, 5:08 PM CDTTornado WarningMEGDecatur, Henderson22 min
Mar 27, 5:42 PM CDTTornado WarningMEGLauderdale48 min
Mar 27, 6:23 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedMEGLauderdale52 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Tennessee, 2021Every river flood warning in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.