Alert archive / Mississippi / Special Weather Statements in 2021

Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

February 28, 2021Tunica County, Mississippi

NWS Memphis, TN issued this special weather statement at Feb 28, 2021, 7:22 PM CST for Tunica County, Mississippi. It was in force for 38 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 28, 2021, 7:22 PM CST (01:22 UTC)
Expired
Feb 28, 2021, 8:00 PM CST
In force
38 min
Issued by
NWS Memphis, TN

County Tunica County, MS

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 1.4 hours before the alert went out and 51 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2021-03-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 229 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2021-03-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -399 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
229 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-269 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
782 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
68 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-399 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-284 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Feb 28, 7:11 PM CST, 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 28, 7:11 PM CST, 11 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
711 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

.UPDATE...Evening Update,

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to clear the Missouri Bootheel and Northeast Arkansas
from the tornado Watch. Conditions no longer look as favorable for
severe weather across the remainder of the watch area but not yet
confident enough to cancel the remainder of the watch across West
TN East Central AR and North MS. Flooding/Flash flooding is
likely the primary threat over the next several hours.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 550 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/

Flooding and severe storm potential remain the primary concerns
through late evening. Damaging wing gusts, a few tornadoes and flash
flooding are all possible.

This afternoons surface analysis showed lower/mid 60s dewpoints
extending into western KY and southeast MO. Dewpoints over northeast
AR were a few degrees cooler, but should warm with the surface warm
front north of the area. At the surface, a cold front extends from a
central WI surface low southeastward into MO/OK and west TX.
The front will be the main focus for severe weather this afternoon.
Storms should follow the front as it moves through the area.

With broken clouds, areas continue to support 1500+ j/kg MLCAPE
this afternoon. Effective bulk shear values of 50+ kts and
helicity values around 300 will support organized storm
structures. With that being said, deep layer shear is nearly
parallel to the front which will favor a more linear storm mode.
Within this line expect training storms that will cause flash
flooding, especially to our northern areas that have already
received 3 inches. Other threats will be gusty winds and
tornadoes. Hail doesn't seem as big of a threat but there's still
a possibility. Short term model guidance suggests precipitable
water values in excess of 1.8 inches will prevail in advance of
the cold front exceeding the 99th percentile of late February
precipitable water climatology. As far as timing, the line should
move through around 3 PM and continue to push south and finally
move out of the area by Tuesday.

By Tuesday we should see some additional, lighter rain as a closed
show passes through the Mid-South. We should have a slight dry
period Wednesday into the weekend. By the weekend a low pressure
system will dart across the desert southwest and push more showers
into the area by Sunday. As far as temperatures, models have our
area cooler than the previous runs, but dry.

SGW

&&

.AVIATION...

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the
much of the Midsouth through the night. Brief periods of
diminished visibility to to heavy rain, gusty wind and lightning
are likely in association with on station thunderstorms. After a
line of thunderstorms passes, 2-4 hours of moderate rain with
infrequent lightning/thunder is expected at all TAF sites with
north winds 10-15kt

Cigs should improve significantly tomorrow at all sites with dry
conditions. Winds will diminish to 5-10kt from the north to
Northeast.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Monday for Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-
     Phillips-St. Francis.

     Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for Clay-Craighead-Greene-
     Mississippi-Poinsett.

MO...Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Monday for Alcorn-Benton MS-Calhoun-
     Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-
     Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
     Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Monday for Benton TN-Carroll-Chester-
     Decatur-Fayette-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Madison-
     McNairy-Shelby-Tipton.

     Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for Crockett-Dyer-Gibson-
     Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Obion-Weakley.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 28, 2:26 PM CST, 4 hours 56 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
226 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-012230-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
226 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Tornado Watch has been issued for most of the Mid-South. See
website for more details.

Locally heavy rainfall from showers and thunderstorms will continue
to bring a risk of flooding through late tonight. There is a
Slight to Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall for portions of the
Midsouth through tonight.

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for the entire
Midsouth through tonight. The primary severe risks will be
damaging winds. A few short-lived tornadoes will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be necessary through late this evening.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 28, 5:37 PM CST, 1 hour 45 minutes before
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Local storm report, Feb 28, 6:24 PM CST, 58 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
624 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             W MILLINGTON            35.33N  89.89W
02/28/2021  E0.75 INCH       SHELBY             TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SMALL HAIL REPORTED IN SHELBY FOREST AREA.

&&
Local storm report, Feb 28, 6:50 PM CST, 32 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
650 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PARIS                   36.30N  88.31W
02/28/2021                   HENRY              TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER HIGHWAY 69S AND BETHESDA ROAD. HIGH WATER
            IMPACTING MANY STREETS AND ROADS ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&
Local storm report, Feb 28, 7:02 PM CST, 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
702 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     LIGHTNING        DYER                    36.07N  88.99W
02/28/2021                   GIBSON             TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            LIGHTNING STRIKE AT THE DYER CENTRAL CONTROL COMM
            CENTER IN GIBSON COUNTY. SOME ELECTRONICS WERE DAMAGED.

&&
Local storm report, Feb 28, 7:19 PM CST, 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
719 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     FLASH FLOOD      N JACKSON               35.63N  88.83W
02/28/2021                   MADISON            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EXCESSIVE WATER CAUSING PROBLEMS ON HIGHWAY 45 BYPASS
            AND OTHER STREETS AND ROADS IN THE COUNTY.

&&
Special weather statement, Feb 28, 7:22 PM CST, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
722 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

ARZ058-MSZ001-007-008-010>012-010200-
Phillips AR-Tunica MS-Coahoma MS-DeSoto MS-Panola MS-Tate MS-
Quitman MS-
722 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 800 PM CST
FOR...

Northeastern Phillips County in eastern Arkansas...
Tunica County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northeastern Coahoma County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southwestern DeSoto County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northwestern Panola County in northwestern Mississippi...
Western Tate County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northern Quitman County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 722 PM CST...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger was located near St Francis National Park, moving northeast at
30 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Phillips...Tunica...northeastern Coahoma...
southwestern DeSoto...northwestern Panola...western Tate and northern
Quitman Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3466 9055 3464 9055 3463 9054 3463 9051
      3468 9046 3469 9046 3470 9048 3488 9016
      3445 8996 3438 9058 3459 9068
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 241DEG 27KT 3455 9055

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 28, 8:06 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGBenton, Lafayette, Marshall, Panola, Tate, Union39 min
Feb 28, 8:14 PM CSTTornado WarningMEGBenton, Lafayette, Marshall, Tippah, Union46 min
Feb 28, 8:42 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGAlcorn, Benton, Prentiss, Tippah, Tishomingo, Union28 min
Mar 1, 2:06 AM CSTAreal Flood WarningMEGDeSoto, Marshall3 hr
Mar 1, 3:32 AM CSTAreal Flood AdvisoryMEGCoahoma, DeSoto, Marshall, Panola, Quitman, Tate and 1 more3 hr
Mar 1, 5:10 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningMEGTate, Tunica23 hr
Feb 28, 6:00 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningMEGLake, Obion2 hr
Feb 28, 6:16 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGShelby, Tipton28 min
Feb 28, 6:35 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningMEGBenton, Henry, Obion, Weakley3 hr
Feb 28, 6:37 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGFayette, Haywood, Shelby, Tipton23 min
Feb 28, 8:09 PM CSTAreal Flood WarningMEGBenton, Carroll, Chester, Crockett, Decatur, Fayette and 10 more6 hr
Feb 28, 8:21 PM CSTAreal Flood AdvisoryMEGBenton, Carroll, Crockett, Dyer, Gibson, Haywood and 5 more6 hr
Mar 1, 3:39 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningMEGFayette, Shelby16 hr
Mar 1, 2:56 PM CSTRiver Flood AdvisoryMEGLauderdale, Tipton5 hr
Mar 1, 3:09 PM CSTRiver Flood AdvisoryMEGDyer, Lake, Lauderdale4 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Mississippi, 2021Every special weather statement in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.