Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1137 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion.

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.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 711 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/

UPDATE...Evening Update.

DISCUSSION...

Updated to clear the Missouri Bootheel and Northeast Arkansas
from the tornado Watch. Conditions no longer look as favorable for
severe weather across the remainder of the watch area but not yet
confident enough to cancel the remainder of the watch across West
TN East Central AR and North MS. Flooding/Flash flooding is
likely the primary threat over the next several hours.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 550 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/

Flooding and severe storm potential remain the primary concerns
through late evening. Damaging wing gusts, a few tornadoes and flash
flooding are all possible.

This afternoons surface analysis showed lower/mid 60s dewpoints
extending into western KY and southeast MO. Dewpoints over northeast
AR were a few degrees cooler, but should warm with the surface warm
front north of the area. At the surface, a cold front extends from a
central WI surface low southeastward into MO/OK and west TX.
The front will be the main focus for severe weather this afternoon.
Storms should follow the front as it moves through the area.

With broken clouds, areas continue to support 1500+ j/kg MLCAPE
this afternoon. Effective bulk shear values of 50+ kts and
helicity values around 300 will support organized storm
structures. With that being said, deep layer shear is nearly
parallel to the front which will favor a more linear storm mode.
Within this line expect training storms that will cause flash
flooding, especially to our northern areas that have already
received 3 inches. Other threats will be gusty winds and
tornadoes. Hail doesn't seem as big of a threat but there's still
a possibility. Short term model guidance suggests precipitable
water values in excess of 1.8 inches will prevail in advance of
the cold front exceeding the 99th percentile of late February
precipitable water climatology. As far as timing, the line should
move through around 3 PM and continue to push south and finally
move out of the area by Tuesday.

By Tuesday we should see some additional, lighter rain as a closed
show passes through the Mid-South. We should have a slight dry
period Wednesday into the weekend. By the weekend a low pressure
system will dart across the desert southwest and push more showers
into the area by Sunday. As far as temperatures, models have our
area cooler than the previous runs, but dry.

SGW

&&

.AVIATION...

The heaviest rain and thunderstorms have shifted out of the region
but showers linger across most of the Midsouth. Minor decreases in
visibility will continue through the night. rain may continue neat
TUP through sunrise with showers shifting South of MEM and MKL
around 10z. North winds 10-15kt through the night will diminish
tomorrow to around 10kt, then 5-10kt tomorrow night. Cigs should
improve significantly tomorrow at all sites with dry conditions.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Monday for Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-
     Phillips-St. Francis.

MO...None.
MS...Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Monday for Alcorn-Benton MS-Calhoun-
     Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-
     Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
     Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Monday for Benton TN-Carroll-Chester-
     Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-Hardin-
     Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-McNairy-
     Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
941 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-020545-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
941 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Locally heavy rainfall from showers and thunderstorms will
continue to bring a risk of flooding through late tonight. There
is a Slight to Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall for portions of
the Midsouth through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be necessary through late this evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
919 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     FLASH FLOOD      W COVINGTON             35.57N  89.65W
02/28/2021                   TIPTON             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            APPROXIMATELY 3-4 INCHES OF WATER ON ROADS CAUSING
            PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY ON HOLLY GROVE ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
938 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW OXFORD             34.39N  89.56W
02/28/2021                   LAFAYETTE          MS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            A COUPLE TREES DOWN.

&&