Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
555 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Return flow will persist next 24 hours, enhanced by a modest LLJ
overnight. Convective evolution over the next few hours remains in
question, as hi-res models don't have a real good handle on the
situation. Likeliest terminals impacted by convection overnight
look to be KMAF/KHOB if an MCS materializes north. Otherwise, MVFR
cigs are expected to redevelop KMAF/KHOB overnight, scattering out
to a widespread cu field Tuesday afternoon all terminals, w/bases
4.5-8 kft AGL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 203 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Upper-level water vapor shows a shrtwv trof that has moved e of nrn
Baja and was crossing Chihuahua, MX where cloud vectors imply
upper- level divergence. Meanwhile the visible imagery shows an
MCV e of the Davis Mtns which looks to be drifting nwd. The MCV's
influence may be such that the upslope flow is increased across
the Upper Trans Pecos-SE NM and may be in close enough proximity
to the dryline to enhance convection, especially if lift from
aforementioned shrtwv trof arrives during or close to the diurnal
heating maxima. The high end sct PoPs we currently have fcst thru
00Z/Tue look to be on the high side and have lowered PoPs some in
the ern CWFA and in the GDP Mtns. The most favored area today is
from INVOF Davis Mtns into SE NM. This evening storms coming out
of SE-EC NM may eventually expand favoring the nrn PB. Storms
this afternoon/evening will be strong- severe with wind and hail
the primary concerns. Tue-Thu the dryline will remain in a wwd
position generally from SE NM-Upper Trans Pecos- bisecting Davis
Mtns at times. Flow aloft will remain sw, but somewhat weak at
times, despite this there will the threat for at least local
strong-severe storms with SB CAPEs above 1500 J/KG each day,
sometimes well above. NAM12 does develop isold-sct storms each
afternoon near along the 50-55 degree isodrosotherms, i.e., SE
NM-Trans Pecos. SW flow is likely to then move storms into at
least the wrn PB. As usual SB CINH will be an issue for storms
(outside of those developing in/near mtns), for example by Wed
NAMBUFR does show formidable cap, ergo 20-30 PoPs. Fri a shrtwv
trof will move across nrn NM/srn Co with an assocd surface front
possibly being the focus for tstms Fri PM across the nrn PB,
otherwise isold across the Lower Trans Pecos. Some indications of
mid-level ridging Sat-Sun with convective potential anchored to
the elevated heat sources. A slow moving mid-level trof is likely
to influence the convective potential in a positive way Mon-Tue.
Cluster analysis is supportive of this trend as well, mid-level
ridging could move e earlier on Sun providing an earlier opening
for convection, at least across the west. High temps will hold
mostly in the U80s- M90s, except hotter along the Rio Grande.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     65  88  66  89 /  30  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       61  94  62  95 /  20  10   0  20
Dryden                         69  92  70  92 /  30  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  65  92  67  95 /  30  20  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 60  88  64  89 /  10  10   0  10
Hobbs                          61  91  63  91 /  40  20  20  20
Marfa                          54  89  55  92 /  30  30  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           66  89  66  90 /  30  10  20  10
Odessa                         66  90  67  90 /  30  10  20  10
Wink                           66  94  67  96 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

44/89/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
408 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-252115-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
408 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021 /308 PM MDT Mon May 24 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the northern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains until 11 PM CDT this evening.

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight.  Any storms
that do develop will be accompanied by frequent lightning, small
hail, gusty winds, and brief, heavy rainfall. There is a slight risk
of severe storms, capable of producing large hail, damaging winds,
and an isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday. Any severe storms that do develop will be accompanied by
large hail and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is recommended. Please report any severe weather
to the NWS or local law enforcement.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
734 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

TXZ046-047-051-052-250115-
Martin TX-Dawson TX-Howard TX-Borden TX-
734 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SCURRY...BORDEN...
NORTHWESTERN HOWARD...NORTHEASTERN MARTIN AND SOUTHERN DAWSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 733 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 10
miles south of Gail, moving northwest at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lamesa, Ackerly, Gail, Lenorah, Lamesa Municipal Airport, Luther, J B
Thomas Reservoir, Los Ybanez, Sparenberg, Patricia, Tenmile, Knott,
Vealmoor, Key and Klondike.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3221 10187 3270 10211 3296 10152 3296 10147
      3263 10117 3259 10118
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 148DEG 19KT 3263 10143

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
635 PM MDT Mon May 24 2021

NMZ029-250115-
Northern Lea County NM-
635 PM MDT Mon May 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LEA COUNTY UNTIL 715
PM MDT...

At 635 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Bronco, or 10 miles northeast of Tatum, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tatum, Crossroads, Gladiola and Tatum Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3321 10306 3314 10334 3357 10338 3357 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 226DEG 23KT 3332 10316

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
751 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

TXZ048-053-250130-
Mitchell TX-Scurry TX-
751 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SCURRY...MITCHELL...
SOUTHEASTERN BORDEN AND NORTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM
CDT...

At 751 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Lake Colorado City, or 8 miles west of Colorado City, moving north
at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Snyder, Colorado City, Loraine, Colorado City Airport, J B Thomas
Reservoir, Lake Colorado City, Lake Colorado City State Park,
Champion Creek Reservoir, Westbrook, Cuthbert, Buford, Dunn, Ira and
Hermleigh.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 202 and 225.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3208 10088 3221 10106 3253 10118 3263 10117
      3271 10078 3219 10066 3209 10067
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 178DEG 19KT 3237 10100

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
807 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

TXZ047-048-250145-
Scurry TX-Borden TX-
807 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SCURRY AND NORTHEASTERN BORDEN
COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 807 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Gail, moving north at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Snyder, Fluvanna, Winston Field, Knapp and Randalls Corner.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3269 10078 3261 10116 3296 10150 3296 10066
      3279 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 188DEG 20KT 3288 10135

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
826 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

NMZ028-033-034-TXZ059-274-250215-
Southern Lea County NM-Eddy County Plains NM-Central Lea County NM-
Loving TX-Reeves County Plains TX-
826 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN EDDY...SOUTHWESTERN
LEA...NORTHWESTERN REEVES AND NORTHERN LOVING COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM
CDT/815 PM MDT/...

At 826 PM CDT/726 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 24 miles east of Loving to
9 miles northeast of Orla to 23 miles northwest of Toyah. Movement
was east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Orla and Slash Ranch.

LAT...LON 3254 10333 3197 10344 3179 10358 3175 10401
      3189 10389 3241 10382
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 263DEG 11KT 3240 10370 3190 10377 3157 10406

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
848 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

TXZ047-048-052-053-250230-
Mitchell TX-Scurry TX-Howard TX-Borden TX-
848 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SCURRY...MITCHELL...BORDEN AND
NORTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 848 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
J B Thomas Reservoir, or 16 miles west of Snyder, moving north at 20
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Snyder, Colorado City, Gail, Loraine, Fluvanna, Colorado City
Airport, J B Thomas Reservoir, Lake Colorado City, Lake Colorado City
State Park, Inadale, Champion Creek Reservoir, Westbrook, Vincent,
Hermleigh, Randalls Corner, Winston Field, Cuthbert, Knapp, Buford
and Dunn.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 194 and 228.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3208 10108 3296 10166 3296 10079 3261 10066
      3209 10067
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 157DEG 16KT 3267 10119

89