Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
218 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

.DISCUSSION...
A cut off low located over NE NM this morning will weaken as it
moves across the Panhandle today and into KS tonight. At the same
time a low over WA this morning will move south across OR tonight
and into CA and NV Thursday and spin over NV Friday and Saturday.  A
new low forms back to the north over WA Sunday then shifts to MT
Monday. And while most of this energy will remain well to the north
this pattern will keep the region in SW flow aloft and allow
disturbances to track across the area.

The remains of a weak frontal boundary and outflows from earlier
storms have combined and remain draped across the region. High
temperatures will remain mild in the 80s today with the increased
moisture... clouds... and rain chances.  Thursday and Friday highs
will be in the 80s across the east with 90s in the west with 100 or
more along the Rio Grande.  Readings a few degrees below normal
expected to continue through the weekend into next week.

Thunderstorms from overnight continued into the morning across the
Nrn Permian Basin with a couple of them becoming severe. These
storms also produced locally heavy rain with several requiring flood
advisories.  Lamesa reported the most rainfall this morning with
1.10 inch recorded.  Good low level moisture remains over the region
with dewpts into the 60s... and with MAF 12z sounding PW running
close to an inch could see more locally heavy rain from developing
storms. As of 18z moisture still packed up against the higher
elevations. Model qpf has been under developing storms/precip last
few days... given the developing CU along the dryline have increased
afternoon and evening pops.  A Marginal risk remains in effect today
for most of the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos with some strong to
severe storms possible through tonight.  Thursday and Friday looking
drier with a chance of storms over SE NM Friday night. Saturday
through Monday the better storm chances look to be out west over the
higher elevations with rain chances decreasing mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  83  61  84 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       58  90  60  90 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                         61  89  65  89 /  20   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  59  89  62  89 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 59  86  60  89 /  10   0   0  10
Hobbs                          53  87  58  85 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          49  88  51  91 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           59  86  62  86 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         59  86  62  86 /  20   0   0  10
Wink                           58  90  63  91 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

84/72

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
153 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-201900-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
153 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021 /1253 PM MDT Wed May 19 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible through this evening, mainly over the
Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and lower Trans Pecos.  Any storms
that do develop will be accompanied by frequent lightning, small
hail, gusty winds, and brief, heavy rainfall.  There is a marginal
risk of severe storms, capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds. Localized flooding will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms will be possible across much of the region this weekend
and early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1057 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 AM     FLASH FLOOD      8 NW COAHOMA            32.38N 101.40W
05/19/2021                   Howard             TX   PUBLIC

            THERE WAS OVER 6 INCHES OF WATER ON THE ROAD NEAR A
            CREEK. SOME VEHICLES GOT STRANDED ON THE ROAD.

&&

MSCHULDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1134 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     HAIL             5 SSW GAIL              32.70N 101.48W
05/18/2021  E1.25 INCH       Borden             TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LOTS OF SMALL HAIL WITH QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL
            MIXED IN. THERE WAS LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IN LOW
            LYING AREAS.

&&

MSCHULDT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
216 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

TXZ279-192000-
Central Brewster County TX-
216 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 215 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles east of Marathon, or 34 miles west of Sanderson. This storm was
nearly stationary.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Brewster County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3026 10316 3029 10291 3026 10286 3004 10279
      3001 10307
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 162DEG 1KT 3016 10298

84

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
251 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

TXZ075-082-279-282-192030-
Pecos TX-Terrell TX-Central Brewster County TX-
Lower Brewster County TX-
251 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PECOS...
NORTHEASTERN BREWSTER AND WEST CENTRAL TERRELL COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM
CDT...

At 250 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 24
miles west of Sanderson, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Pecos, northeastern Brewster and west central Terrell Counties.

LAT...LON 2973 10312 3041 10303 3041 10244 2980 10242
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 258DEG 26KT 3021 10280

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
323 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

TXZ067-068-075-192115-
Pecos TX-Crane TX-Ward TX-
323 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PECOS...EASTERN
REEVES...SOUTHEASTERN WARD AND CRANE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 322 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Grandfalls, or 18 miles southeast of Monahans, moving
east at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grandfalls, Royalty, Imperial, Imperial Reservoir and Cordona Lake.

LAT...LON 3121 10300 3148 10302 3161 10239 3120 10236
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 265DEG 22KT 3137 10272

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
341 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

TXZ045-050-192130-
Andrews TX-Gaines TX-
341 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ANDREWS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GAINES COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 341 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Andrews, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Andrews, Florey and Andrews County Airport.

LAT...LON 3222 10276 3258 10278 3257 10232 3217 10228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 277DEG 17KT 3230 10257

89