Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1240 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low clouds and thunderstorms have moved out of the region for now
and currently all TAF sites have returned to VFR conditions.
Winds will be variable at most sites due to remnant outflow from
these thunderstorms. This afternoon, scattered cumulus will be
possible. Additionally, thunderstorms may cause gusty and erratic
winds and lightning. The greatest chance of thunderstorms based on
recent guidance is at HOB, MAF, INK, AND FST. Will amend as
necessary should thunderstorms develop. By tonight, winds will be
southeasterly over the region. Low clouds may develop at HOB
tomorrow morning, but confidence is low at this time and will
defer to later TAF issuances.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 540 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Sfc winds will veer to SE this morning, w/stratus at KMAF/KHOB
scattering out by 18Z or before. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail, w/a widespread cu field by late morning w/bases 4.5-5 kft
AGL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021/

DISCUSSION...

Things are looking quieter this morning as storms wind down. A few
small cells remain on radar across the Permian Basin but those are
expected to move out/dissipate by sunrise. A low will be slow moving
over the Texas Panhandle today before lifting up into the Plains on
Thursday. Some more storms will be possible across our eastern CWA
this afternoon and evening with the aforementioned low sitting to
our north. Temperatures will remain a bit cooler today with
increasing cloud cover. Expect low 80s across the Permian Basin and
potentially 90 along the Trans Pecos. As the low lifts up and out on
Thursday, our rain chances will diminish and Thursday and Friday
look to stay mostly dry. Temperatures will increase only slightly on
Thursday/Friday with highs in the mid to upper 80s across the Basin,
mid-90s along the Trans Pecos, and 100s along the Rio Grande.

Our next concern for severe weather will be this weekend. Another
low will move in over the CA/NV border and hang out there through
Sunday. At the same time, an upper level high will be building over
the Mississippi Valley, and we'll see southwesterly flow aloft
across the region. This pattern will help usher low to mid level
moisture into West Texas and SE New Mexico. Ample moisture and a few
weak shortwave troughs moving through this weekend will be enough
for storms to develop across the area. These storms may not only be
severe, but have the potential for some substantial rainfall.
Temperatures will cool down as well this weekend through Monday with
low 80s across the Basin and low 90s along the Trans Pecos. Rain
chances will decrease after Tuesday, and temperatures will begin to
warm up back to the upper 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     81  60  83  63 /  30  20   0   0
Carlsbad                       87  57  93  61 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         89  62  88  66 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  89  61  92  64 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 82  61  88  62 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                          82  56  87  59 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                          84  50  90  51 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           83  60  86  63 /  20  10   0   0
Odessa                         84  60  86  63 /  20  10   0   0
Wink                           89  60  93  66 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

91/99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
153 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-201900-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
153 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021 /1253 PM MDT Wed May 19 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible through this evening, mainly over the
Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and lower Trans Pecos.  Any storms
that do develop will be accompanied by frequent lightning, small
hail, gusty winds, and brief, heavy rainfall.  There is a marginal
risk of severe storms, capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds. Localized flooding will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms will be possible across much of the region this weekend
and early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
947 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

TXZ046-047-051-052-191545-
Martin TX-Dawson TX-Howard TX-Borden TX-
947 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BORDEN...NORTHERN
HOWARD...NORTHEASTERN MARTIN AND SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL
1045 AM CDT...

At 947 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ackerly, moving east at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ackerly, Luther, J B Thomas Reservoir, Knott, Vealmoor and Vincent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Midland.

&&

LAT...LON 3232 10181 3257 10189 3268 10118 3233 10118
TIME...MOT...LOC 1447Z 268DEG 31KT 3246 10174

84

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1004 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     HAIL             7 NNE LAMESA            32.83N 101.91W
05/18/2021  E1.75 INCH       Dawson             TX   PUBLIC

&&

MSCHULDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1053 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 AM     HAIL             8 NW COAHOMA            32.38N 101.40W
05/19/2021  E1.00 INCH       Howard             TX   PUBLIC

&&

MSCHULDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1057 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 AM     FLASH FLOOD      8 NW COAHOMA            32.38N 101.40W
05/19/2021                   Howard             TX   PUBLIC

            THERE WAS OVER 6 INCHES OF WATER ON THE ROAD NEAR A
            CREEK. SOME VEHICLES GOT STRANDED ON THE ROAD.

&&

MSCHULDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1134 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     HAIL             5 SSW GAIL              32.70N 101.48W
05/18/2021  E1.25 INCH       Borden             TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LOTS OF SMALL HAIL WITH QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL
            MIXED IN. THERE WAS LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IN LOW
            LYING AREAS.

&&

MSCHULDT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
216 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

TXZ279-192000-
Central Brewster County TX-
216 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 215 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles east of Marathon, or 34 miles west of Sanderson. This storm was
nearly stationary.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Brewster County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3026 10316 3029 10291 3026 10286 3004 10279
      3001 10307
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 162DEG 1KT 3016 10298

84