Areal Flood Advisory 101, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1257 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

MVFR conditions will continue with CIGs lowering and raising
through out the day. Rain is expected at all terminals with the
heaviest being out west in Southeast New Mexico. TS is likely for
all sites this afternoon with KMAF being the least likely, but TS
is still possible. AMD will be made for lowering CIGs and TSRA as
storms progress this afternoon into the evening. Winds maybe gusty
from thunderstorms but the prevailing direction will remain out
of the east. Light to mod turb is possible over the area this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall will be possible throughout
the day today and into tonight. A Flash Flood Watch is now in
effect thru 12Z Tuesday. An environment that is rich with moisture
remains in place over the forecast area. PWATs are 2-3 sd above
normal, a stationary front is draped across region, and a nearly
stationary ULL is situated over far W TX. All of these factors
will contribute to continued heavy rainfall and potential flash
flooding. Latest CAMs including 3km NAM and HRRR place the highest
QPF totals across Eddy County and the HWY 54 corridor. Storm
totals thru Tuesday morning could reach upwards of 2-3" across SE
NM. An additional 1-2" will be possible along and N of the I-20
corridor where flash flood guidance would easily be overcome due
to recent rainfall and already saturated soils. Temperatures will
remain well below seasonal norms today and Tuesday due to
persistent cloudiness and abundant moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

Rain chances begin diminishing on Wednesday as an upper level
trough lifts to the north and high pressure over the southeastern
U.S. builds over Texas. The highest PoPs late in the week will be
over the western CWA, in closer vicinity to the trough and
diminish to the east as the influence of high pressure increases.
The high pressure building in will also cause temperatures to
increase with highs approaching normal levels by Friday. It is
then that a low pressure system over the Great Lakes sends another
cold front into the area on Saturday. This front, combined with a
series of upper disturbances associated with the low will increase
instability and once again create a decent chance for rainfall
over the weekend. Week cold air advection and increasing cloud
cover will drop temps a few degrees continuing refreshingly cool
weather. The NBM appears to be handling temps and PoPs pretty well
and the extended forecast remained pretty close to this guidance.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               79  67  81  67 /  70  70  60  60
Carlsbad                 75  65  77  65 /  80  80  90  80
Dryden                   88  70  87  70 /  40  50  40  50
Fort Stockton            81  67  83  67 /  70  60  60  60
Guadalupe Pass           69  60  71  61 /  80  80  80  70
Hobbs                    73  65  75  65 /  80  80  80  80
Marfa                    77  60  79  59 /  70  60  70  50
Midland Intl Airport     78  67  80  67 /  70  70  60  60
Odessa                   79  67  80  67 /  70  70  70  60
Wink                     82  69  84  68 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Andrews-Borden-
     Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

&&

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....49
AVIATION...89

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
921 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FLUVANNA                32.89N 101.15W
06/28/2021                   SCURRY             TX   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS ROADS AND FIELDS FLOODED

0919 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LAMESA                  32.73N 101.96W
06/28/2021                   DAWSON             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE FLOODED ROADWAYS AND FIELDS SINCE 6AM

&&

MATTHEW.D.JOHNSON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1033 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FLUVANNA                32.89N 101.15W
06/28/2021                   SCURRY             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RANCH ROAD 1269 AND FM ROAD 612 IS WASHED OUT.

&&

MATTHEW.D.JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1158 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 AM     FLASH FLOOD      9 E LAMESA              32.73N 101.80W
06/28/2021                   Dawson             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HWY 180 HAS BEEN SHUT DOWN EAST OF LAMESA AS RESULT OF
            FLOODING.

&&

MATTHEW.D.JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
106 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1239 PM     FLASH FLOOD      16 SW SNYDER            32.55N 101.11W
06/28/2021                   Scurry             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTS OF FLOODING ON FM 1298. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF
            FLOODING THROUGH OUT SCURRY COUNTY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND
            ON ROADWAYS.

&&

MATTHEW.D.JOHNSON